Black Monday

[Panda-NZ-]

Nasdaq just keeps riding the AI and low interest rate wave.

[moka]

You realise we have a national-act govt in. It's going to be poorly enforced if we're lucky.
The real issue is with the Jobseekers.

Yes, the current government is tough on crime, easy on corporate regulation.

In contrast to the tough stance on individual criminals, the approach to corporate crime often appears more lenient.
This disparity between individual and corporate crime approaches reveals a significant disconnect in the criminal justice system:

1. While individuals face harsh sentences, corporations often escape serious consequences for their crimes.
2. The focus on being "tough on crime" for individuals contrasts sharply with the more lenient approach to corporate wrongdoing.

While "tough on crime" policies remain politically popular, they often fail to address the root causes of crime or effectively deter corporate wrongdoing.
The current system often allows corporations to settle cases without admitting guilt or implementing meaningful reforms.

[Toddy]

The relief that the tightening cycle is more than likely over gives us as a country some hope as we there will be less hurt through the second half of the year.

Im personally looking forward to
1. A softening NZ dollar which will benefit the farming exports and the NZ listed exporters.
2. Lower interest rates that will reduce my cost of debt and NZ Companies balance sheets.
3. Maybe a stop in the decline of property prices that will make the NZ home owner feel less vulnerable.

Just a few highlights. I understand the risks, but want to concentrate on the positives.

[alokdhir]

Luxon told Aussies NZ are having 3 more OCR cuts before Christmas

Well said that man

3 cuts in two meetings ?? Whats on his mind or whats he ON ??

[Lego_Man]

3 cuts in two meetings ?? Whats on his mind or whats he ON ??

It means there will be 25bps cut in October and 50bps cut in November (likely due to the long summer break). Cuts are generally defined singularly as a quarter of a %.

[alokdhir]

NZ Weekly Data Wrap: and so the easing cycle begins

The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 25bp to 5.25% this week in what the Record of Meeting notes was a consensus decision. Our updated OCR forecast is for 25bp cuts at each meeting, to a low of 3.5%. The Selected Price Indexes release this week points to a smidgen of downside risk to our Q3 CPI forecast of 1.0% q/q. However, this is just the first month of the quarter, and given some of the surprise came from the more volatile components we’re happy noting the risk to our forecast and waiting for the August release. Compared to the RBNZ’s Q3 CPI forecast of 0.8% q/q, the July SPI is pretty much in line, and therefore do not present a roadblock to another 25bp cut in October. This week we also published our Quarterly Economic Outlook. Recent high-frequency data suggests the slowdown in the economy is broadening and gathering pace. While interest rates are heading lower, there are still risks to the disinflation trajectory and the pace of policy easing remains uncertain.

Latest ANZ view after the cut ...now they also in 25 bps per meeting cut

[maclir]

NZ Weekly Data Wrap: and so the easing cycle begins

The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 25bp to 5.25% this week in what the Record of Meeting notes was a consensus decision. Our updated OCR forecast is for 25bp cuts at each meeting, to a low of 3.5%. The Selected Price Indexes release this week points to a smidgen of downside risk to our Q3 CPI forecast of 1.0% q/q. However, this is just the first month of the quarter, and given some of the surprise came from the more volatile components we’re happy noting the risk to our forecast and waiting for the August release. Compared to the RBNZ’s Q3 CPI forecast of 0.8% q/q, the July SPI is pretty much in line, and therefore do not present a roadblock to another 25bp cut in October. This week we also published our Quarterly Economic Outlook. Recent high-frequency data suggests the slowdown in the economy is broadening and gathering pace. While interest rates are heading lower, there are still risks to the disinflation trajectory and the pace of policy easing remains uncertain.

Latest ANZ view after the cut ...now they also in 25 bps per meeting cut

I hate consensus thinking, you want synergy from a group, where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole, consensus decision making rewards the average.

[winner69]

Massey Uni AI gdp tracker has June GDP positive

RbNZ says negative 0.5%

Wonder whose right

Interesting tracker
https://gdplive.co.nz/