IKE - Ike GPS.com

[kiora]

https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...ke.nzx-434456/

Breaking even?

Whens it going to bolt?

Maybe next year?

"AI products coming to market from Q2 "

AI going to make a deference?

[Cobber]

https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...ke.nzx-434456/

Breaking even?

Whens it going to bolt?

Maybe next year?

"AI products coming to market from Q2 "

AI going to make a deference?

Customers make the difference. Currently only slightly ahead of last year. 2023 seems like it was an anomaly.

[Baa_Baa]

Customers make the difference. Currently only slightly ahead of last year. 2023 seems like it was an anomaly.

NPAT makes the difference, it's the only thing that matters, and the only thing holding this company back from a massive re-rate.

[ValueNZ]

NPAT makes the difference, it's the only thing that matters, and the only thing holding this company back from a massive re-rate.

I'll open by stating I know next to nothing about this business.

But doesn't revenue of $21m seem awfully low? Even if they managed a net profit margin of 20%, that'd be $4.2m on a market cap of $70m.

I don't see much balance sheet value, $90m of accumulated losses is staggering.

Anyway I'd be interested in hearing what you have to say about the business.

[Baa_Baa]

I'll open by stating I know next to nothing about this business.

But doesn't revenue of $21m seem awfully low? Even if they managed a net profit margin of 20%, that'd be $4.2m on a market cap of $70m.

I don't see much balance sheet value, $90m of accumulated losses is staggering.

Anyway I'd be interested in hearing what you have to say about the business.

Hey ValueNZ, I don't have much more to say about it, still digging into the details but it got my attention until I learnt it's still making a loss. I don't like the pomp and ceremony announcements .. revenue+ this, customer retention+ that ... when they carefully avoid saying the the NPAT word.

I'm encouraged though by the scalability (growth) potential but there's no secret sauce in the business model that I've seen so far, except a potential tech advantage (shallow moat) and this might just be another long-tail chip away at it story.

I'm not interested in putting too much more time into considering it until I see that it's profitable. Of course that strategy will leave money on the table if it is, but it will also avoid ongoing capital stagnation or losses.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars Review
IKE reported a solid 1Q25 trading update, with the outlook for FY25 remaining positive. While total revenue for the quarter was slightly behind our expectations, sales momentum in Subscriptions continued, as segment revenue rose +29%. IKE's gross margin expanded to 70% in 1Q25 from 61% in 1Q24, reflecting a favourable shift in the product mix towards higher-margin Subscription revenue. The positive trend in margin is expected to continue for FY25, implying stronger-than-anticipated gross margins, relative to our prior expectation of ~69% for the period. We adjust our estimates accordingly and our blended spot valuation increases +5cps to NZ$0.88. IKE had NZ$10.0m in cash at the end of 1Q25, which we expect will be sufficient to achieve cash flow breakeven without external capital.


What's changed?
Earnings: Our EBITDA estimates increase by +NZ$0.3m, +NZ$0.5m, and +NZ$0.5m in FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively.
Blended spot valuation: Rises +6% to NZ$0.88, reflecting earnings changes and a re-rating in peer multiples.
Segment revenue trends persist
Total revenue for 1Q25 (NZ$5.8m) was slightly behind our expectation of NZ$6.0m, largely reflecting continued weakness in IKE's Transaction segment. Transaction revenue was NZ$1.8m, down -16% versus the pcp and -18% sequentially from 4Q24. By contrast, Subscription revenue grew by +29% versus the pcp and +14% sequentially from 4Q24, underpinned by the continued growth of IKE's core IKE Office Pro product and contract wins for its next-generation PoleForeman product. IKE now has 58 customers for its PoleForeman product, representing >3,700 subscribers and >NZ$12m in total contract value signed.


Positive outlook for the remainder of FY25
The outlook for the remainder of FY25 is positive for IKE due to: (1) strong growth expectations for Subscriptions, with management reiterating guidance for >+50% revenue growth, (2) further gross margin uplift from the continued shift in the product mix towards higher-margin Subscription revenue, and (3) the introduction of new AI capability into IKE's new and existing products. These factors should lay the platform for IKE to return to sustainable growth after a challenging FY24 period.


Cash position largely unchanged
IKE finished 1Q25 with NZ$10.0m of cash, down slightly from NZ$10.2m at the end of FY24. The moderate level of cash burn in the quarter is constructive to our view that IKE will achieve cash flow breakeven without requiring external capital. Based on our new forecasts, we expect IKE to achieve EBITDA breakeven in FY26 and cash flow breakeven in FY27, supported by continued revenue growth and gross margin expansion.


Earnings revisions
We make minor upwards revisions to our gross profit estimates following IKE's 1Q25 trading update. Our revenue and operating expense estimates are unchanged, with limited information in the 1Q25 release to change our view.

[BigBob]

What's going on here.... Up 13% to .54 on pretty big volume....! Hardly any sellers... No news...?

[Greekwatchdog]

What's going on here.... Up 13% to .54 on pretty big volume....! Hardly any sellers... No news...?

Wondering the same thing. 1.3m shares traded. Get a speeding ticket shortly.

[whatsup]

Wondering the same thing. 1.3m shares traded. Get a speeding ticket shortly.

Word obviously is getting around, the future looks good and its a case of, buying an umbrella in the summer, as it will be very hard to buy meaningful lots from here on out.

[Cobber]

Word obviously is getting around, the future looks good and its a case of, buying an umbrella in the summer, as it will be very hard to buy meaningful lots from here on out.

Someone knows something. Word has got around.