IFT - Infratil

[Ggcc]

I am not saying you are wrong Ggcc. But looking at AR2024 p24 this morning, and the EBITDAF from each Infratil division, I am surprised how dominant 'One NZ' has become (EBITDAF of $545.5m, - 63% of all Infratil EBITDAF). We now know that the second biggest EBITDAF provider, CDC, EBITDAF $140.8m, has supplied most of their 'earnings' via future data centre revaluations. So it is really only 'One NZ' and to a lesser extent Manawa Energy (EBITDAF $74.1m) and Wellington Airport (EBITDAF $70.7m) that are providing the cash that allows Infratil to survive.

Thus it is very clear that Spark and Infratil (via One NZ) are deadly competitors in the same telecommunications space. The big difference being that Infratil takes their 'One NZ' cash profits and reinvests them in various growth prospects outside of telecommunications, whereas Spark takes their profits and gives them straight back to shareholders to 'do what they will' with. So the real comparison for the future is not Infratil verses Spark. It is really Infratil verses Spark PLUS the results of whatever Spark shareholders choose to do with their dividend stream.

If it was a straight fight between 'Spark' and 'One NZ' I would still go for Spark as the provider of the more complete telecommunications packages. I do acknowledge 'One NZs' Jason Paris as a strong CEO though, even though he isn't quite as good as Spark's Jolie Hodson . In fact before my recent Spark buy up, my plan was to wait for the 'One NZ' float, then buy Spark on any market weakness of Spark caused by institutions having to rebalance their portfolios into a newly floated 'One NZ' !

SNOOPY

If you were to just compare One to Spark, I too would choose Spark, as One is still trying to better their services and that in itself will be a few year struggle, but they will get there. Ift play the long game, I am happy to be part of their journey.

You always make more money selling businesses than running businesses. When IFT businesses are near to fully matured you will IFT flick them off or use them for cashflow.

[Toddy]

Has Snoopy driven down the IFT share price today.

Tough day at the office!

[huxley]

Has Snoopy driven down the IFT share price today.

Tough day at the office!

And SPK is up today! This is surely market manipulation, someone alert the FMA

[Snoopy]

You have made a series of posts and subsequent revisions on the subject of CDC, which have been shown to be incorrect.

The process is called 'iterative optimisation'. Take some information that you do know. make some educated guesses about what you don't know. Put all the inputs into the formula. Crank the handle and see if something sensible comes out. If not, revise your guesses and crank the handle again. Rinse and repeat until you are happy with the numbers you are generating. I am not going to apologise for taking seven iterations to get to a point I am happy with. Particularly when the whole idea of being 'correct' is an illusion anyway. We can't be 'correct' until we have full access to the CDC accounts, which Infratil is under no obligation to supply us. So 'best guess' it is.

This is not the way to prove the profitability of Spark's investment in similar ventures. Can I recommend you post about Spark in the Spark thread?

Already done in June:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...=1#post1058688
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...=1#post1058788

And maybe once you have a finalised and informed view on CDC, then present that....rather than learning while you post what can be interpreted as misinformation.

All sources are open when looking for clues. And certainly looking at the profitability of Spark datacentres offers some clues to the numbers that might be behind CDC. It is called 'cross fertilization of ideas'. If I present information on CDC titled as an 'attenpt' , I don't see why anyone would take such a post as definitive.

SNOOPY

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Has Snoopy driven down the IFT share price today.

Tough day at the office!

Like seemingly almost every capital raise, the share price will probably hit the discounted offer price once retail investors can start trading their allocations.

[Baa_Baa]

In the many years that I've been here, and with the greatest respect I have for Snoopy's analysis ... especially the Buffet tests, I have never seen him work up a flawed and evolving derogatory scenario, on record, with so many pullbacks and corrections for a competitor of a company that he does hold and has held for a long time.

Covid brain? Who knows, but it's questioning a very long standing confidence in his current and future analysis.

[Snoopy]

In the many years that I've been here, and with the greatest respect I have for Snoopy's analysis ... especially the Buffet tests, I have never seen him work up a flawed and evolving derogatory scenario, on record, with so many pullbacks and corrections for a competitor of a company that he does hold and has held for a long time.

What derogatory scenario? Have I told people to not invest in Infratil? No. Yes I have said that CDC is not making much money from operations. But I have explained the background behind that, I don't have a problem with it, and I don't necessarily see that as a long term negative. I just want to see some of the numbers that make up that lofty CDC valuation. A perfectly reasonable request I would have thought. But some existing shareholders seem to have taken that request as a slap in the face.

Furthermore the fact I hold shares in Spark has nothing to do with the impression that you have where you think I am disparaging Infratil. I would be quite happy to hold both SPK and IFT if I can make my own investment case for IFT stand up. If you think my analysis on CDC is flawed,
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...=1#post1060215
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...=1#post1059326
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...=1#post1059815

then please post your own alternative one, or a least point out where you think I have gone wrong.

SNOOPY

[kiora]

Looking at past performance is one thing but for IFT investors now future earnings and compounding returns are more important

https://infratil.com/for-investors/o...d-performance/

So past peformance was:
A post-tax return of 18.7% a year over 30 years. In contrast, the NZX50 delivered a return of 7.4% a year over the same period.
A post-tax return of 22.0% per year over last 10 years.

So compounding returns have increased over last 10 years

So IFT management are getting
"luckier"?
+/- They are getting better?
+/- The investing environment is improving?

I only want to invest in companies that have compounding returns in the future.
Because then timing the market doesn't matter.
Because time in the market is far more important and I'm only looking to keep owning the shares in the company.
I can set & forget and ignore any noise.

So what will future earnings look like?

I'm picking that

There is a pipline of development prepared
The investment opportunities have rarely been this good
That there is little capital constraint
The investing environment will stay the same for the immediate future.
That the IFT management will be as good if not better than it has been
That investors will get "luckier" in the immediate future

[warthog]

What derogatory scenario? Have I told people to not invest in Infratil? No. Yes I have said that CDC is not making much money from operations. But I have explained the background behind that, ...
SNOOPY

They're emotional, Snoopy. They're here to have their decisions, views and perspectives affirmed, not challenged, questioned or analysed. We saw with the hoax how for 80%+ of people there is basically no critical thinking or independent assessment ability present. They follow the crowd and believe in the wisdom of their cult, and react emotionally when it is called into question.

Disc. hold IFT.

[Goose]

Just checked Link Market Services to see how my allocation went - seems they have used an interesting method of scaling. I thought that they might take some oversubscriptions so I applied for 1.33 x my entitlement; received 1.086 x my entitlement. I imagine there is going to be varying results for different holders.