2024 NZX Stock Picking Comp

[ValueNZ]

I think it was a mistake to allow companies that were not "Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $7m may not be selected."

We can see how that has massively influenced the results to-date.

Few serious investors would take these punts, imo, but by doing so in the NZX comp, and they make a few 10th's of a cent gains, they can massively influence the results.

JMHO. Something to consider for next year.

The problem is inherent to having a one year timeline, it lends itself to speculation rather than investing.

If someone told me I had to produce a 100% return in a year, then I'd probably end up speculating in derivatives.

I've got no clue how to do this, but a competition where people can update their portfolio over many years would be better (then have a leaderboard with CAGR).

[What the stock]

"If someone told me I had to produce a 100% return in a year, then I'd probably end up speculating in derivatives"
Why not go for broke and invest in meme crypto

[ronaldson]

I was thouroughly distracted last week in Melbourne, so much so that I have no idea who are the medalists who missed out on their hard earned moment of glory on the podium or indeed who is grateful for not being identified as the woodenspooner on that occasion. Not so this week, although volatility was muted so you can get namechecked this post despite relatively limited movement.

Southern Lad and tRADer deadheated for Gold, up 18 places and just nosing out Waikaka. ynot earned the wooden spoon, down a similar number to the winners and ahead of SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT who fell a mere 14 places. And dare I say it, there is a new entrant in the Top 10 this week who would have lodged a more significant challenge if only RAK would catch fire.

What the Stock has retreated sharply but retains the overall lead on +18.35%, a much lesser figure than we have seen for months, ahead of Waiuta who has closed the gap to less than 1%, with Exec in third on 14.18%. They all look more vulnerable than before. I did notice that no one has a "green sheet" on the leaderboard, although Bobdn is close to that unique claim with a single yellow (but still positive) pick. On the other hand 17 participants have achieved the questionable attribute of a full 5 red numbers across their pick line, which signifies redemption this year is nigh impossible. In fact poor ralph has an average outcome of more than negative 34% in less than six months, and others are in almost equally deep water.

I think this shows that trying too hard to come out on top by choosing a portfolio with high potential to move around risks ignomy and an extended timeframe in purgatory. But commiserations to those who tried but are now experiencing remorse for their actions. No doubt a lot of action still too come but green shoots are needed. The Tiwai announcement settled the energy sector, while tax relief has yet to kick in and inflation is off the boil so there is still hope if you are brave. The RV operator sector has been smashed but adjustments have been made and results could improve. TWR and VGL are showing the market the way so onward to next week!

[Bobdn]

Ronaldson, I see you're solidly in the top 10! Well done. I miss my top 10 days.

If Tom Lee is right, and US small caps start to work, maybe, just maybe, I'll return.

Edit: sorry I may have jinxed your good run.

[ronaldson]

Ronaldson, I see you're solidly in the top 10! Well done. I miss my top 10 days.

If Tom Lee is right, and US small caps start to work, maybe, just maybe, I'll return.

Edit: sorry I may have jinxed your good run.

Bobdn - You did indeed. No sooner in than out! But you and rocketboy have both returned to glory, while What the Stock has wings again to put some distance on Waiuta at the very top.

An interesting week, with IFT taking the headlines and RAK not able to complete the course. Only 37 competitors are positive with their picks, leaving 121 negative and many of those by significant margins, which suggests the NZX is in something of a funk and in need of support, as many portfolios will testify, and the index was down another 1.5% overall. Even the professionals are struggling, with Hamilton Hindon Green in front but minus 1.42% overall as Forsyth Barr have drifted away and are back in bold red numbers. Not to mention poor Black Bull Research who have now broken the -20% barrier, which could be a record for analysts taking part.

SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT has the Gold Medal up 30 places to 73rd overall, ahead of Antipodean up 26 to a commendable 20th on the ladder, with ynot in bronze. Woodenspoon goes to audiav, down 23 places with hogie, cgba and 4kj in close attendance. Red Lantern is now northcote, more than 37% down and again likely a record score.

Reporting seems to be dominated by announcements that are downgrades however they are dressed up, but IFT raised a billion dollars just by waving a wand. What would SML have given to be able to do that? A lot of angst in retail and hospitality not yet offset by any Government largesse. Thankfully the Tax Returns I have been busy doing this week yield refunds by my calculation which is much better than the alternative.

We may technically not be in a recession but life isn't easy either. We will be at the halfway point in the competition at the end of June so time yet for the tide to turn to help those who are drowning currently. Hold on to hope everyone. If Luxon and Willis can remain positive so can we!

[xp04]

NZO will be delisted from the NZX tomorrow. Yesterday was its last trading day on NZX. There are two NZO picks (Felix and benk) in competition and they have been substituted by corresponding backups (ERD and BGP respectively).

[ronaldson]

Yet another short week. Does anybody actually get any work done in this country? And the market fell 1% today, which took any gloss away as well. When the market trades again we will be at the halfway mark in the competition.

percy up 17 places took out the Gold Medal, with GGCC and audiav on the podium. Wooden spoon went to rrr who was severely dealt to retreating 22 places. Quite a gaggle of suspects behind down 13, who are fortunate to remain nameless. I note that 25 of us have a full slate of red numbers across their picks while not a single soul has a green sheet - it's tough out there this year.

I wasn't much enlightened by Oceania's ASM this afternoon. We will have to wait for the 30 September reporting towards the end of calendar 2024 to know properly how it is at The Helier and if dividends will resume. RAK made a positive announcement so backsliding there should be over. The ERD ASM yesterday indicated brighter days might be ahead, and the SML saga would seem to reach better definition later in July although the actual outcome remains cloudy indeed.

The Government budget kicks in on 1 July so excuses from that point get harder. At least the Brnderwyns highway has now reopened, and the extra fuel tax applied in Auckland is gone from Monday. TWR holders will be wondering about the impact of the latest storm on their prospects but I doubt flood insurance is available now in Wairoa and Haumoana residents must be reconsidering their long term future also.

The NZX is in a considerable funk. Hamilton Hindon Green remain ahead in the professionals race but even they are negative. Are there green shoots anywhere? I don't know. Keep your cash safe and hunker down meantime.

[Tomtom]

Everything seems to be going pear shaped for me this year. I may need to start a whisky thread in late December to find the perfect bottle to drown my sorrows.

[nztx]

Everything seems to be going pear shaped for me this year. I may need to start a whisky thread in late December to find the perfect bottle to drown my sorrows.

there will be a lot in a similar boat - with the way the market trends & economic conditions have gone this year to date.

[ronaldson]

O Wow. What the Stock has been dislodged by Waiutu at the top of the leaderboard just now! That didn't seem possible for months.

And somehow I am in 4th place, which also seemed highly unlikely in the first six months of the competition. Just shows change can happen, as Luxon seems intent upon achieving for the country.

I like his style. Just such a contrast with the previous Government's modus operandi. Rolling Action Plans lead to transparency and measureable outcomes, and the time initially invested in developing the respective Coalition Agreements has not been wasted either. And I see some strong and competent ministers, regardless of their party affiliation, which is driving purposeful change.