Doors open for India if I'm right though?
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India haven't signed up to the agreement - for now.
https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/fr.../rcep-overview
RCEP mentions India like the Australian Constitution mentions New Zealand.
i.e. It may happen, but.... :mellow:
RCEP sounds like a deadly disease / virus
oz trading suspended? depth and price not moving for some time, just guess.
update:The ASX has paused the market due to ongoing market issues. ASX is investigating as a priority.
Any calls about what most likely we will hear at AGM ? Also how will market react to that ....:p
Expect the same message as last time. Things are difficult with COVID, most likely Daigou are starting to buy products again, we might get an indication how much. 11/11 has done well. Lowering of IF Stocks as what was mentioned by Synlait. Greener pastures in the horizon with new deal made between Asia and NZ/Australia. Longterm outlook still stable, just a few potholes for the time being on the road to greater success........ $20 in no time.......... Maybe lol. DYOR
it must hold 14...
Good to see ATM trending upwards in the after midday trading, compared to recent weeks.
It must have crossed an important threshold.
16.30 is not going to satisfy most people here ...especially ....
What about your crystal ball reading ?
Actually I call it informed and derived calculated reading ....all here are seasoned investors and long time followers of ATM ...so thought of picking all's collective wisdom !!
Its to keep it interesting and in the right spirit ...sometimes fun is also worthy :D
I know right, that's about a 6.5% gain from $15.30...I'm not sure I'd want to risk straining my fingers by clicking on the sell button to realise that gain. It's mid 20s or go home I reckon. Might change my tune after tomorrow though ;)
Not holding my breath for any fireworks at today's ASM. It'll be much same with some improvement in outlook but nothing too huge from what they outlined in their market update given in Sep. We can be assured that there probably won't be another downgrade. Just my thoughts, DYOR.
all boring stuff
The Company’s outlook statement is included at page 24 of the presentation and confirms that the guidance provided in September 2020 is being maintained.
in fairness they wouldn't be re-confirming guidance if their was no hope in hell of it being achieved. I agree with their comment to note volatility from Covid, they are basically saying that if China, Australia, NZ perhaps all ended up back in lockdown with massive outbreaks of Covid, it would be difficult to achieve guidance. Thats fair, given all the unknowns with Covid. Do we even have a vaccine, will it even work??
No 2nd downgrade balance.:D
Fair enough ! Good part is that no further downgrade as mentioned by many that they come in 3's ...though they left the door open ... Here no one knows the future but its safe to assume that its only going to be better with time on Covid control progress ...
No big rush of selling I see so far ...Ozzy's are unknown here !!! So slow grind up as mentioned by many ...thats positive :t_up:
I honestly want Chairman Mr Hearn to go....adds not much value imo being UK domiciled. Sure we can find someone more capable to step in closer to home, here's a thought how about Geoff for Chairman role after he finishes up from his current interim CEO role.
Consolidation, not consolation.
Pretty much as expected. I expected the caveats and cautions to come out and they have. They are certainly covering their butt with statements like these
• However, due to the volatility arising from COVID-19, and the difficulties this presents with forecasting, naturally there is
uncertainty to this forecast
• We also acknowledge the outlook provides for a significant increase in revenue in the second half, dependent on a
number of key assumptions, including an improvement in the daigou channel and continued growth in our China label
business
• We continue to observe strong underlying brand health metrics, in particular in China, including market share expansion,
and growth of brand awareness and loyalty measures. This gives us confidence that, notwithstanding the current
headwinds, the fundamentals of the business over the medium term remain sound
They are certainly giving themselves plenty of "outs" if things go wrong which is what I expected. Fundamentals over the medium term remain sound is code speak for in the short term the headwinds are fairly strong and challenging.
I'm staying out as I think there's plenty of scope for their assumptions about the second half to be proven to be too optimistic. Time will tell. Good luck to holders.
I'm not going to get into a #$%^ing contest with you on this but what you said is factually incorrect so I will correct it. I did very well in the years up to March 2018 and especially in that year when it went from ~ $3 in March 2017 to $13 in March 2018. All the best with it mate.
Agree sb9 .....as I’ve said before done his dash. For some weird reason everytime I see or hear him I think of Boris Johnson.
Wouldn’t want Geoff as Chairman either..has been a wasted year having him in their temporarily ....suppose got to blame Hearn for that as well.
Who cares what his holding was, Beagle has some valid points just like yourself.
No point getting butt hurt cause someone isn't all pro A2M.
Reservations of many people about ATM and its immediate future is very understandable ...But for me risk / reward favours investment or holding strategy as its one of the very few blue chip quality stock available at very reasonable levels ( as risks are involved ) compared to most of the market having over saturated valuations
50-75 % returns in 1-2 years are worth the risk of some short term hiccups .
Just my humble opinion DYOR as always
Nice start for the day, but will it hold when Aust come online?
They have certainly very carefully prepared the groundwork for a second downgrade, I don't think there's any dispute about that.
Yes, since April 2018 ATM has materially underperformed the NZX50 which is a long 30 months but for loyal shareholders they're quick to point to the stellar outperformance over longer comparative timeframes which is fair enough but in doing so they rather conveniently (in my opinion), gloss over the evidence that growth is dramatically slowing and the reason FY18 was the last year of stellar share price growth is because that was the last year of stellar eps growth. My nose (which I have come to rely on and trust), tells me there's a LOT of people with emotional attachment issues with ATM. They made so much money in the years up to FY18 its VERY hard to be truly objective now.
OCA, HLG, HGH, TRA are all GARP stocks (Growth at a reasonable price) all on extremely attractive multiples. GNE on 7% gross dividend yield. Excellent stocks on compelling metrics are there for those prepared to open both eyes ;) I better leave you in peace again...I can tell you simply don't want to read anything other than positivity about ATM.
See what I mean folks about being one eyed. Its cringe worthy to watch. Off for another holiday from this thread...Its nauseating to see one's friends unable to see anything objectively and then attack you when you try and help them. Do AIR have any sick bags left ?
I think it’s a bit far fetched to suggest a downgrade is coming based on their comment about volatility from Covid. No business can provide certainty in a Covid environment.
Fresh milk sales are up in all
Markets, Chinese sales are up 77%, store expansion up, Singles day 11/11 sales up 24% on last year.
If we were seeing a deterioration in sales, then yes potentially a downgrade, but not when things are clearly still growing and expanding.
Good part about today's commentary about outlook is that both sides think they have a chance . So bulls think worst is over trying take it up strategy while bears think another downgrade or bad results coming and they keep shorting .
In nut shell this will lead to explosive price moments if either side wins decisively ...which will happen eventually !
Hopefully it ends well for Bulls ...as me holding ...lol
So far NZX guys think its positive ...but they are always optimistic about ATM ...Real test of which side dominating will come after 12 PM ...exciting to watch keen and almost equal fight :p
Absolutely. It would be extremely irresponsible of any company whose bottom line could be impacted by further covid issues to not at least have some butt covering statements in their forecasting. That includes OCA and HLG to name but a couple. Nothing to read here as far as I'm concerned.
Don't forget ATM was a favourite in 5 brokers top 5 picks for 2020.
Not looking special on 10 month graph, so they will tout to get them across the line when Santa's passing out the parcels.
Anyone who doesn't like the multiples on offer here, could always fly off and buy SKO.
I like in the meeting how he emphasises "short term" when discussing returning capital to share holders. He even pauses before saying "Short term". I interpret that to me to suggest they are considering dividends in the medium term.
Actually ill take you up on this point, its easy to trash talk a stock when you are a non holder and its also easy to upramp the crap out of a stock whilst being a very small holder as a % of your portfolio of any given stock. I'd like to see all holders disclose the % of their portfolio that the stock they are commenting on is. At least over at HC you have to put up your sentiment and whether you hold or not which is something. With something like the formentioned in place one could then decide if what any given poster is saying has any value or meaning in relation to any given stock, would also unmask motivations. PS-I'll start the ball rolling, A2 makes up 90% of my portfolio total.:D
[QUOTE=Gregnz;857529]I like in the meeting how he emphasises "short term" when discussing returning capital to share holders. He even pauses before saying "Short term". I interpret that to me to suggest they are considering dividends in the medium term.[/QUOTE
That will help stabilise the stock ...after all this company has 10% of its market cap as cash ...which other company can match that ...:t_up:
Step in, be in, its about to begin.
The volumes say the drawbridge is being pulled up on the sub16 mob.
I'm down to ATM being 88.7% of my portfolio, and this is because no other stock has been able to keep up with it over the last few years! Let your winners run.............
For me today is positive news, confirming that September announcement is still accurate and there are other positive signs right now. A Covid provision would be applicable to any company so I don't read anything into that. Under the old Geoff today's announcement would mean things are actually going to end up better than predicted - not quite so sure these days though!
Looks like bears think AGM went their way ...at least after 12 pm open ones ...:scared:
The highlight is Singles day 11/11 sales up 24% on last year. and I believe it achieved by huge discount and tax-free from their boned Warehouse in China and free gift. Still wonder current p/e 29/30 is fair or not.
just what we needed a update to get the price headed back in the right direction
Bought in around $14.50 at this rate we will be back there in no time lol. Growth slowing, but still a good long term hold.
Whale oil beef oct. Generally positive reaction in our market to begin with, only to be spun around a few hours later with the help of Aussie. Oh well, I'm not about to cry over any spillage...guess I'm in this for the longer haul. To top up or not to top up is the question. Probably a nadda for me at this point, have enough exposure at ~15% of portfolio, plus some passively.
wonder shall I buy now or wait $14:scared:
Which is a good sign in itself I would have thought. The market obviously isn't that excited about it, but then it's not overly disappointed either, so I guess it's steady as she goes for the time being. Could see some further downward pressure maybe as some of the speculators and those not completely devoted decide it's time to depart...hopefully some of those won't be the larger instos. Will be interesting to see where we head leading up to Xmas, whether we see sub $14 again...if so, it might start to hurt.