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17-05-2019, 11:36 AM
#7851
Moosie probably a disaffected non house owner praying for a collapse miracle so he can afford a house.
Different economists have different viewpoints regarding the future. Time will tell but I am very comfortable with the metrics.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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17-05-2019, 12:12 PM
#7852
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by winner69
This the same Tony who predicted in spring 2016 Auckland's housing prices to rise forever?
https://rwpukekohe.co.nz/news/tony-a...september-2016
And for the record, here is a link to my 2012 article on 19 reasons why Auckland house prices would keep rising. Most still seem valid. Enjoy if you have already bought. Despair if you have not. And if you have put off buying because of one of the many incorrect forecasts that house prices were about to fall – whoops a daisy.
BTW - he made good points why Auckland's property prices will keep rising. And I think all but one of his points (impact of foreign buyers) are still true.
And now you are saying he went to the dark side? Shudder
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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20-05-2019, 07:10 PM
#7853
Half way through second quarter
Hope the mystery shopping is doing the trick and sales are booming, esp to n Christchurch and Auckland,
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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20-05-2019, 09:11 PM
#7854
Member
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by winner69
Half way through second quarter
Hope the mystery shopping is doing the trick and sales are booming, esp to n Christchurch and Auckland,
No worries mate, Julian just telling fibs regarding the slowing property market affecting sales, gonna be a boomer with all the cruises they've been giving away.
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20-05-2019, 09:13 PM
#7855
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by tipsy
No worries mate, Julian just telling fibs regarding the slowing property market affecting sales, gonna be a boomer with all the cruises they've been giving away.
Of course. Fantastic sales, fantastic fall in margin along with it. Seems like desperation to me.
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22-05-2019, 08:56 AM
#7856
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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22-05-2019, 09:48 AM
#7857
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by winner69
I think the removal of capital gains tax which has been overhanging the market since Labour was gifted the election win by Winston Peter's in late 2017 is a significant factor as is the lowest interest rates I have ever seen. 3 year fixed mortgages from mainstream banks for around 3.8% is quite remarkable.
Different economists will have different views but I tend to agree with Westpac.
Useful to zoom out and have a look at the big picture. Immigration is still running really strong and will underpin the market demand-supply equation and the cost of building a new home has been rising at an alarming rate vastly in excess of the inflation rate in no small way due to the ridiculously expensive and draconian building consent processes.
SUM's metric s have never been more compelling since it listed 7 1/2 years ago, (a fact all the naysayers and doomsday merchants always very conveniently overlook).
Another factor they never mention is the quality of the management and the board and the unprecedented track record of profit growth SUM has achieved since listing which to the best of my knowledge is unmatched by any other company on the NZX including the much revered Ryman.
Excellent long term hold in my opinion.
Last edited by Beagle; 22-05-2019 at 09:51 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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22-05-2019, 09:49 AM
#7858
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by winner69
Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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22-05-2019, 09:53 AM
#7859
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...
Even a broken clock is right twice a day lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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22-05-2019, 09:58 AM
#7860
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...
Worry is that Dominic and I are on the same wavelength ....I said 5% plus a week or so ago but that’s dependent on the number of house sales picking up quite significantly.
But when it comes down to it we believe the things we read that are seen to be positive for SUM eh ...gives us the warm fuzzies eh.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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