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17-02-2018, 02:13 PM
#2951
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Actually, given that it is likely the company paying for the report I am in as a shareholder.
What I should have asked ... who's interests is the report likely to represent? The interests of the major cornerstone shareholder (who already made lots of money by selling into an inflated CR which was supported by board and management), the interests of the board who already signed their right to independent judgement away (nota bene - prior to commissioning and reading the report) - or the interests of the retail shareholder?
A
Ah well, we probably should wait until we see it, but I don't hold my breath ...
Independent view from Grant Samuel to be provided to shareholders ......don’t be so cynical
Selling the company still best outcome for shareholders I reckon. They have taken it as far as they could and in spite of the rhetoric it was struggling to grow ....and to meet lofty expectations would have taken many years
Without the takeover share price probably woul have languished in the low 200/230 range ....which would have not pleased many.
That $2.10 Mark was good buying.
Last edited by winner69; 17-02-2018 at 02:17 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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21-02-2018, 12:08 PM
#2952
Interesting, BWX (the company some like to compare to TIL) down over 17% at open today... seems investors were a bit to hyped up for that one as well
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21-02-2018, 02:06 PM
#2953
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by trader_jackson
Interesting, BWX (the company some like to compare to TIL) down over 17% at open today... seems investors were a bit to hyped up for that one as well
Now down 25%
Just shows lofty multiples aren’t the norm in this sector
Getting $2.90 for Trilogy a good deal ..more than fairly valued.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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21-02-2018, 02:09 PM
#2954
If the Grant Samuel report valued TIL up to $2.94, I reckon the board might as well push for $2.94.
The 4c will go a long way, like an extra dividend.
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23-02-2018, 11:07 AM
#2955
BP - here’s all the reasons to accept the offer that really is too good to be true
But as you are no doubt still grumpy maybe better you didn’t
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...652/275051.pdf
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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23-02-2018, 12:48 PM
#2956
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by winner69
Hmm - funny that. Personally I don't like it when the other guy across the table who tries to bend my arm to make a deal has much better information than I have about the object he wants me to sell. How about you?
I guess the attached report contains at least some estimates about FY18 (ending in 5 weeks ...) which look funnily quite similar to the 4 traders numbers (however - for some reason the consensus figures of the other analysts comes up a higher value ...). Just wondering - how did the Christmas sale really go, and why does the buyer have these numbers and we don't (well, hopefully they are embedded in the Grant Samuel's estimates, but haven't seen them unfiltered ...).
Why do they try to push this through so short before the end of the FY? The way I see it - No matter what the real value of the company is, the process stinks.
winner - if I may ask one question: Somehow it feels you take my critique looking at the process personally. Could you just help us to understand your interest? Do you hold? Anybody from your friends or family involved in driving it?
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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23-02-2018, 01:29 PM
#2957
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by BlackPeter
winner - if I may ask one question: Somehow it feels you take my critique looking at the process personally. Could you just help us to understand your interest? Do you hold? Anybody from your friends or family involved in driving it?
Nothing personal intended Black Peter. I appreciate your view as to how you see it being playing out but you just seem to be a bit inflexible in your thinking and unwilling to understand that in most cases a Scheme of Arrangement is a lot more efficient and less messy process than a 'hostile' takeover. This is particularly so when the Directors think that finding a buyer is the best way forward to extract some real value for shareholders. There is greater certainty doing it this way.
This SOA (terms and conditions etc) is pretty much a standard agreement and not that different from others that have used. Even break fees are common.
If there is a 'hidden' agenda it is that the majority shareholder wants out.because they feel that they ahve taken the company as far as they can. That's been quite clear for some time
I hold Trilogy shares and will be voting YES if I haven't sold them before the meeting. I think the Directors have done a good job in extracting $2.90 out of CITIC. Wasn't $2.10 a good time to get back in. Trilogy been good to me over the years.
I know nobody who is involved in 'driving' this deal.
Having been involved in corporate demergers / mergers and takeovers both 'hostile' and 'friendly' by way of a SOA I probably take a bit more interest in how deals are done.
Again nothing personal and I'm sorry I might have offended you in this matter.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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23-02-2018, 01:37 PM
#2958
Thanks for clarification and no offence taken.
Not sure how to vote yet, but I am sure that I will think in future twice before investing into any company run by the current board members / managers; Just don't like the bitter aftertaste ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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23-02-2018, 03:36 PM
#2959
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Thanks for clarification and no offence taken.
Not sure how to vote yet, but I am sure that I will think in future twice before investing into any company run by the current board members / managers; Just don't like the bitter aftertaste ... ![Wink](images/smilies/wink2.gif)
Apparently Ross been touting the business for a few years ....and was a bit disappointed nobody was keen enough to pay elevated price of a few years ago. Had to come back to a more realistic value before finding a keen buyer.
I wouldn’t reject the likes of the Business Bakery because of a bad taste if they go public with their next venture. Been pretty successful in the past, get in early in thevfull knowledge that one day they will want to exit.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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12-03-2018, 08:56 AM
#2960
As I thought the 10% ebitda growth that has been touted all year had heaps of ‘hope’ written all over it. Was wishy washy wasn’t it
Profit downgrade (or hinting at one)
Just as well those holding will still get the $2.90 ...else on this news the share price probably sub $2
Trading update
TIL's guidance for FY18 remains unchanged as per Grant Samuel's independent adviser's report, which was released to the market with the Scheme Booklet on 23 February 2018. TIL notes that trading in the last three months has been relatively volatile with Ecoya brand sales lower than expected. In addition there are orders for both Trilogy and Lanocorp that may or may not close around balance date. These factors could negatively impact FY18 earnings by up to 10%.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315354
Last edited by winner69; 12-03-2018 at 08:59 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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