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25-02-2015, 12:38 PM
#11501
Read with care
Originally Posted by Balance
...In fact, it means that PEB's CxBladder slaes for the HY were $1.136m.
Originally Posted by Xerof
Nice work???
If you want a "true indication", just read the 28 November 2014 report to end of Sept 2014 - sales of 1.011m, which I presume is net of the royalties due in the following period.
PEB CxBladder sales were about $486,000 for the period Apr 14 to Sep14
Presumably these royalty payments cover the period Jul 14 to Dec 14.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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25-02-2015, 12:48 PM
#11502
Originally Posted by Balance
According to RM Research, CDY obtains 1.5% royalty fee from all sales and their forecasts in Oct 2012 when CxBladder was launched are that CDY will receive royalty incomes from PEB of :
1. $79,885 in FY2014,
2. $508,450 in FY2015.
$18,040 is a long long way off from the figures above and imo shows just how far behind PEB is from initial expectations!
In fact, it means that PEB's CxBladder slaes for the HY were $1.136m.
I would like to point out if I may that the figures 1. 79885 and 2 . 508450 are the expectations of CDY not PEB.
As I do not recall royalties of any note being paid before by PEB this initial payment would cover all tests done up to the end of PEB's Sept 2015 HY.
This would include the tests that had accumulated to the end of March 2014.
You are also comparing a predominantly 6 month figure with a full year expectation figure.
This means you could either halve the expectation or double the 18,040. Not quite so bad after all.
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25-02-2015, 12:49 PM
#11503
PT, not convinced they knew what sales to end of December 2014 were when they paid royalties prior to that date
The main takeaway from Balance's 'observation' made via a circuitous route, was expectations set in 2012 have not been met. Well, sorry, but that just isn't new news to anyone, and the share price has adjusted from lofty heights to reflect that.
The next report will give us another milestone indicator for sales, but I'd prefer to see the CMS issue resolved to be honest
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25-02-2015, 12:50 PM
#11504
It's a summary of a commercialisation sequence as provided by Pacific Edge, it is neither positive nor negative, it's neutral by definition, it's a list.
I find it a good ruler for measuring and gauging where the company is at, if others don't that's fine I won't prepare or share such things in the future.
I have been a holder in Pacific Edge for several years having last topped up to my diversification limit in 2013, I have never sold a single share in the company, and have no interest in buying or selling PEB whilst watching their five year plan roll out. You can send me as many expensive bottles of wine on that note as you may wish.
Like many long term holders I'm content just to sit back, watch and to discuss progress along the way with constructive people who share a similar interest. If you object to that then I make no apology for it.
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25-02-2015, 01:07 PM
#11505
Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
PEB CxBladder sales were about $486,000 for the period Apr 14 to Sep14
Presumably these royalty payments cover the period Jul 14 to Dec 14.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Hullo PT.
The CDY announcement of half year results to the end of December include a royalty payment made by PEB. This payment does not show up in the accounts of PEB for the half year ending in Sept. Therefore can we assume the payment for accrued tests up to end of Sept 2014 was made to CDY during the period Oct 1 to Dec 31? If so then any further royalties from Oct 1 2014 will be accruing for the next payment due either after FYMarch or ,if it is yearly, again after Sept 2015.
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25-02-2015, 01:18 PM
#11506
More considered but not more helpful
Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
PEB CxBladder sales were about $486,000 for the period Apr 14 to Sep14
Presumably these royalty payments cover the period Jul 14 to Dec 14.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Revised thoughts:
PEB CxBaldder Sales were NZ$460,000 (US) + NZ$71,000 (NZ) for a total of
NZ$531,000
plus the were probably 'internal sales' maybe but for an unknown amount but with a set value for accounting and royalty purposes.
The AU$18,040 would equate to AU$1M2 at 1.5%.
So if the payment covers PEB HY to Sep14 then the sales guys giving away free tests could be the difference.
Or maybe it is something else, you can make various assumptions.
But don't know for sure.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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25-02-2015, 01:22 PM
#11507
Is another assumption the 1.5%?
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25-02-2015, 01:23 PM
#11508
Quickly
Originally Posted by Minerbarejet
Hullo PT.
The CDY announcement of half year results to the end of December include a royalty payment made by PEB. This payment does not show up in the accounts of PEB for the half year ending in Sept. Therefore can we assume the payment for accrued tests up to end of Sept 2014 was made to CDY during the period Oct 1 to Dec 31? If so then any further royalties from Oct 1 2014 will be accruing for the next payment due either after FYMarch or ,if it is yearly, again after Sept 2015.
Do they itemize royalty payments? I am sure it is not necessary.
It will probably just be part of the payments to suppliers/trade creditors in the HY accounts.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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25-02-2015, 02:10 PM
#11509
Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
Do they itemize royalty payments? I am sure it is not necessary.
It will probably just be part of the payments to suppliers/trade creditors in the HY accounts.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Applying logic to a payment for royalties if made prior to HY2014 cutoff at 30 Sept and included in financials (somewhere) could indicate any of these:
A: the royalty rate is higher than thought
B: there are more tests being done than thought
C: Royalties are paid on all tests used whether part of sales or User Programs
Personally I favour C as this could explain the discrepancy between the actual 531000 and the 1.2 mill
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25-02-2015, 02:20 PM
#11510
Originally Posted by Minerbarejet
I would like to point out if I may that the figures 1. 79885 and 2 . 508450 are the expectations of CDY not PEB.
As I do not recall royalties of any note being paid before by PEB this initial payment would cover all tests done up to the end of PEB's Sept 2015 HY.
This would include the tests that had accumulated to the end of March 2014.
You are also comparing a predominantly 6 month figure with a full year expectation figure.
This means you could either halve the expectation or double the 18,040. Not quite so bad after all.
It is hard to imagine that CDY would put out that kind of expectations without some consultation and interaction with PEB - that is the nature of forecasts. I recall some posters using the CDY numbers to assess PEB's forecast sales and prospects at that time and getting very bullish in the process.
In any case, it is clear now that PEB's sales are way behind CDY's 2012 forecasts and expectations.
Question now is by how much.
PEB announced its first commercial sale of CxBladder in the States on 18 October 2013. CDY results for FY June 2014 showed no royalty payments from PEB based on sales.
It can be deduced therefore that the $18,040 paid to CDY was for all sales up to date to 31 December 2014 (accounting 101 - matching & accrual concepts).
Bearing in mind that there's an overlap between PEB's March year and CDY's June year for reporting purposes, anyone expecting big numbers for the year to 31 March 2015 are going to be disappointed would be my thoughts at this stage.
Last edited by Balance; 25-02-2015 at 03:12 PM.
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