Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

Report on U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas - USNI News

https://news.usni.org/2024/08/28/rep...cid=c66085d221

[Davexl]

New Caledonia crisis: a turning point in Pacific security - by our very own Anne-Marie Brady

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...ific-security/

[Davexl]

China’s failed first attempt to stymie the Pacific Policing Initiative - from the PIF

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ch...ng-initiative/

[Davexl]

Thailand buying (Saab) Gripens E/F's to keep Myanmar in check

(also balancing China / US acquisitions / exercises) - Asia Times

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/thaila...nmar-in-check/

Could be a good option for NZ (acquisition)

[Davexl]

US racing to shield Indo-Pacific bases from China's missiles

US Air Force's ACE strategy aims to overhaul base defenses but China's AI and machine-learning advancements may foil the plan

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/us-rac...inas-missiles/

[Davexl]

South Korea gets closer to NATO in the Indo-Pacific

Disrupting the current power equations and the status quo carries both potential benefits and risks for Seoul

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/south-korea-gets-closer-to-nato-in-the-indo-pacific/

"The increase in South Korea’s defense spending, rising from 2.4% of GDP in 2005 to 2.7% in 2023, further underscores its growing investment in national defense and its desire to contribute meaningfully to global security efforts." (Compared with NZ's 1.1% of GDP)...

[Davexl]

Perchance to dream...imagine bringing in all this Vietnamese expertise in electronics to NZ, to add to our thriving Philippine community in the sector...

Vietnam becoming a chip-making powerhouse

Global semiconductor makers piling into Vietnam to decouple from China and eschew much higher Western wages

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/vietna...ng-powerhouse/

[Davexl]

US Deputy Secretary of State Praises NZ as "essential" to US interests...

[Davexl]

Every new ship built counts to even up the deterrence value...even from little ole NZ
(4 new General Purpose frigates to work with Aust)

Report to Congress on China Naval Modernization

https://news.usni.org/2024/08/20/rep...cid=6b0002e97d

US Deputy Secretary of State Praises NZ as "essential" to US interests, argues for more maritime defence spending...

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/p...fence-spending

(Very unfortunately Paywalled but "Noted")

[moka]

AUKUS submarine deal exposed as monumental folly

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/aukus-submarine-deal-exposed-as-monumental-folly/

Investigative journalist Andrew Fowler makes clear in his new book “Nuked: The Submarine Fiasco that Sank Australia’s Sovereignty“, that the AUKUS deal brought short-term political advantage for Scott Morrison but the time has come to abandon ship.

What clearly emerges from Fowler’s account is how irresponsible and self-serving Australia’s approach to national security became under Morrison. The fate of the Australian people, not to mention the endlessly invoked “national interest,” was of less concern than short-term political advantage.

Anyone who doubts the accuracy of former Labor luminaries Paul Keating and Gareth Evans, who have argued that AUKUS is, as Keating put it, “the worst deal in all history,” really ought to read this book.

The plan for Australia to acquire eight nuclear-powered submarines, built locally in partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom, is projected to cost up to A$368 billion (US$249.4 billion).
The principal architect of this monumental folly is Scott Morrison, whose reputation will be deservedly further diminished by the revelations contained in Fowler’s carefully researched volume.

Whatever the reasons for this, the end result was that:
”the huge shift in Australia’s foreign policy alignment was hatched by a Christian fundamentalist former tourism marketing manager with no training in strategic or foreign affairs but a great gift for secrecy and deception.”

“The fact that the increasing US military presence in the Indo-Pacific could draw Australia into a conflict,” writes Fowler, “seemed of little consequence in Morrison’s desire to wedge Labor on national security.”

What is extraordinary is the possibility that Morrison truly believed that what was best for the United States was best for Australia. Just as extraordinary is the fact that the Labor Party, perhaps fearful of history, embraced the deal that made Australia so vulnerable, undermining its independence and sovereignty.