All my old div stocks like hgh and pgw are devastated in the last two years. I thought they were stable but how wrong was I.Most of my nzx is kfl now. I do hold ech on asx which I sold cue to buy. I think it will re rate soon enough and pay better divs. TRA is another that has a positive outlook. I have found kfl has cycles after div where it's cheaper than buying into the next div so later next week it should be value. Should be...
All my old div stocks like hgh and pgw are devastated in the last two years.
I got stung by these two as well Mike. But I wouldn't beat yourself up about it. There were special circumstances in each case:
1/Heartland Group Holdings: It was the capital raising to buy Challenger bank in Australia that did the share price in. It was known that a capital raising would be required to complete the Challenger transaction for months. Yet the actual acquisition process dragged on and on and the share price was just ground down in anticipation. IMV if the capital raising for this was done six months earlier, then the share price would not have suffered like it has. Why the capital raising was not done some months earlier I am not sure. It looks like Heartland were awaiting the OK from the Australian authorities to allow a 'foreign' company to take over Challenger, and Heartland wanted to be absolutely sure they would get 'indicative regulatory approval'. But they were 'committed' to buy Challenger long before that. So I think announcing a capital raising for the funding of the Challenger purchase back at AGM 2023 time would have been the thing to do. And if the purchase did not come off, I think the funds could have been put to a good alternative use. By waiting so late to do the capital raise, a lot more shares had to be issued to raise the fixed dollar amount required. And that will dilute the 'earnings per share' at Heartland forever going forwards. If you look at the operational performance of Heartland, I think it has been quite resilient for a 'second tier' lender in tough market times. Sure there was a 'surprise' provision announced for motor vehicle and other financed assets at FY2024 result time, again with hindsight not unexpected with many businesses hurting. Yet IMV Heartland is basically on track and on a path back to previous earnings highs. I took full advantage of the capital raise to be part of the Heartland recovery story and I have no regrets about that, even though my average purchase price for my HGH shares is still underwater at $1.37.
2/ PGG Wrightson: The share price fall here was the result of coming off the top of a farming 'super cycle'. Again it was easy to spot 'with hindsight', that with horticulturalists and beef and lamb farmers all getting top dollar simultaneously, -and dairy farmers riding high as well-, there was no way the PGW share price was going to stay over 5 bucks when this 'confluence of price perfection' turned down. Actually I did recognise this and put some of my PGW shares up for sale in the low $5 range, after the beginning of the share price fall had started. But I was too greedy, asked for too much and didn't sell any. The associated problem is that when your revenues reduce significantly in a short time, a company with what would normally be seen as a 'moderate level of debt', can suddenly become 'scrutinized' by its bankers. The priority then becomes getting PGW's debt levels under control, rather than dividends for shareholders. This created the dual shock of 'no dividend' and a question mark over how much rope the banking syndicate is willing to extend to PGW, (which means a looming threat of a potential capital raise). Personally I am willing to contribute to a capital raise, should such a thing be required. But I have been a PGW holder for a very l-o-n-g time, such that my average buy in price is $1.90, not counting all the juicy dividends I have received over the good years. So I am not really 'feeling the pain' of more recent investors. I realise we probably won't see those $5 'super cycle share prices' again, nor dividends ever again at the higher historical levels. I do think $3 is on though, a near 50% rise on what the market share price is today. That is enough expectation to keep me invested.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; Yesterday at 11:48 PM.
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