HMY - Harmoney Corp Limited

[thegreatestben]

I listened, the message was this was the worst it gets in a cycle and they are still making progress and okay numbers. They indicated they had strong indications of improvements ahead and my quote above they mentioned future partnerships ahead but was too early to give any specific details.

[winner69]

Addressable market A$150 billion ...and thats just Australia

That's a lot of opportunity

[silverblizzard888]

FY24 results
Interest revenue increase 15%, while interest cost increased 40% Clearly when that happens its going to be hard to make a profit especially when older loans were made when loan cost were cheaper. With FY24 spent focused on developing Stellare 2.0 growth was reduced as well, but all this changes going into the next financial year.

Fy25 Estimate
My FY25 estimates are based on stats generated during from their July release of Stellare 2.0 and expense ratios from Fy24. With the average loan at $20,000, they did 650 new loans in July 2023, but with Stellare 2.0 increasing the amount of loans approved in July 2024 the number of loans increased by 650 additional loans with a 50% increase on loan value for that month.

That suggest under Stellare 2.0 that the average loan generated will be smaller loans with an average value of $10,000. Additional loan value generated a month will be $6.5m or $78m a year in Australia.

Assuming NZ can do 20% of that in additional loans since NZ’s implementation comes later and the population is smaller, then that would be $15.6m

Additional loan value generated with Stellare 2.0
Australia: $78m
NZ: $15.6m
Total: $93.6m

Loan book at the end of 30^th June 2024 was $758m

Loan book growth, if we assume added 2% on original volume would be $15m added to the loan book

Total loan book for FY25: $758m + $93.6m + $15m = $866.6m 14.3% increase

Interest income: $140.3m
Interest cost: -$59.4m (using a 0.5% reduction on their current interest cost)
Credit loss at 4%: -$34.6m
Customer acquisition cost: -11m
Operating expenses at -$25m

Cash NPAT $10.3m

Potential that partnership opportunities may increase loans

[Dlownz]

FY24 results
Interest revenue increase 15%, while interest cost increased 40% Clearly when that happens its going to be hard to make a profit especially when older loans were made when loan cost were cheaper. With FY24 spent focused on developing Stellare 2.0 growth was reduced as well, but all this changes going into the next financial year.

Fy25 Estimate
My FY25 estimates are based on stats generated during from their July release of Stellare 2.0 and expense ratios from Fy24. With the average loan at $20,000, they did 650 new loans in July 2023, but with Stellare 2.0 increasing the amount of loans approved in July 2024 the number of loans increased by 650 additional loans with a 50% increase on loan value for that month.

That suggest under Stellare 2.0 that the average loan generated will be smaller loans with an average value of $10,000. Additional loan value generated a month will be $6.5m or $78m a year in Australia.

Assuming NZ can do 20% of that in additional loans since NZ’s implementation comes later and the population is smaller, then that would be $15.6m

Additional loan value generated with Stellare 2.0
Australia: $78m
NZ: $15.6m
Total: $93.6m

Loan book at the end of 30^th June 2024 was $758m

Loan book growth, if we assume added 2% on original volume would be $15m added to the loan book

Total loan book for FY25: $758m + $93.6m + $15m = $866.6m 14.3% increase

Interest income: $140.3m
Interest cost: -$59.4m (using a 0.5% reduction on their current interest cost)
Credit loss at 4%: -$34.6m
Customer acquisition cost: -11m
Operating expenses at -$25m

Cash NPAT $10.3m

Potential that partnership opportunities may increase loans

Thanks silver. In all honesty this result was alot lower than my expectations.
Seeing your numbers would be right up there at amazing. If they can achieve half of that I'd be happy. So guidence for me would be half of what yourve supplied to 3/4s of your figure. Your figure would be super top and would push the share price up to $1.50 by October 2025.
But as always. It take a big fund to push the share price upwards regardless of how good it is. NZME, Sky, vista. No matter how good the results are it take a fund with alot of money to finally show it's potential.

[Rawz]

SB your numbers do look very super duper top to me.

HMY have guided 20% cash ROE only for the second half of FY25.
So assume they do really well in the first half and get 15% ROE and 20% ROE for the second the blended is 17.5% (i think this is a stretch). This would equal cash npat of $6.4m.

Your $10.3m cash npat is a ROE of 28.3%
And this assumes no more stat losses dragging down avg equity further. Which with your $10m cash npat would push ROE over 30%

[silverblizzard888]

SB your numbers do look very super duper top to me.

HMY have guided 20% cash ROE only for the second half of FY25.
So assume they do really well in the first half and get 15% ROE and 20% ROE for the second the blended is 17.5% (i think this is a stretch). This would equal cash npat of $6.4m.

Your $10.3m cash npat is a ROE of 28.3%
And this assumes no more stat losses dragging down avg equity further. Which with your $10m cash npat would push ROE over 30%

It would be the top end based on ROE of 20%, though theres always room for out performance as you will have seen with 2CC and Tower profit upgrades in the past. My estimates are based off their July data, the rest of the year might be better or worse. Theres no knowing how Stellare 2.0 could perform going forward and whether they plan to spend more on marketing or not. I will revise my numbers when more financial data is released.

[Dlownz]

It would be the top end based on ROE of 20%, though theres always room for out performance as you will have seen with 2CC and Tower profit upgrades in the past. My estimates are based off their July data, the rest of the year might be better or worse. Theres no knowing how Stellare 2.0 could perform going forward and whether they plan to spend more on marketing or not. I will revise my numbers when more financial data is released.

Cheers Silver. Interesting times ahead then 😊🍻