Geo Political Risk

[moka]

Hugh White makes some comments about Ukraine.
1. US deterrence has failed in Ukraine. That's a very important. Whatever else one thinks about is happening in Ukraine it was a failure of US deterrence.
2. They're not preparing to fight World War III over Taiwan anymore than they are prepared to fight World War III over Ukraine.
3. In Ukraine it is worth remembering that any effort to ensure Russia's defeat against Ukraine it’s now clear would require direct NATO intervention, with a direct risk of nuclear war.

Since 1945, the United States has been involved in several conflicts where it did not achieve a clear victory. Here are some notable examples:

Major Conflicts

Vietnam War (1955-1975) The US failed to prevent communist North Vietnam from taking control of South Vietnam, ultimately withdrawing its forces in 1973.
Afghanistan War (2001-2021) After 20 years of conflict, the US withdrew its forces, leading to a swift Taliban takeover of the country.
Iraq War (2003-2011) While the initial invasion succeeded in toppling Saddam Hussein's regime, the subsequent occupation and nation-building efforts were plagued by insurgency and sectarian violence.
Interventions in Libya and Syria. U.S. involvement in these conflicts, while more limited, also failed to produce clear-cut victories or stable outcomes. In Libya, the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi led to ongoing instability. In Syria, U.S. efforts to support moderate rebels and combat ISIS did not result in regime change or a resolution to the civil war

Other Inconclusive Conflicts

• Korean War (1950-1953): Ended in a stalemate and division of the Korean peninsula.
• Bay of Pigs Invasion (1961): Failed attempt to overthrow Fidel Castro's government in Cuba.
• Lebanon Intervention (1982-1984): US forces withdrew without achieving their objectives.
• Somalia Intervention (1992-1995): Ended with US withdrawal after the "Black Hawk Down" incident.

Reasons for Lack of Clear Victories

1. Changing Nature of Warfare: The shift from conventional wars to complex insurgencies and civil conflicts has made it difficult for the US to achieve decisive victories.
2. Unclear Objectives: Many of these conflicts had vague or unrealistic goals, making it hard to define and achieve "victory".
3. Asymmetric Warfare: The US military, designed for large-scale conventional warfare, has struggled against guerrilla tactics and insurgencies.
4. Political Constraints: Domestic and international political considerations often limit military options and complicate exit strategies.

It's important to note that the US has had some successful military interventions during this period, such as the Gulf War (1991) and smaller operations in Grenada and Panama. However, in many of its major long-term engagements, the US has struggled to achieve its stated objectives or secure lasting favorable outcomes.

[Panda-NZ-]

I don't understand how the US sending troops to ukraine (at their request) would trigger a nuclear war. It's not russian territory and they're going to land the nuke on another country, which is effectively a first strike. Yeah nah.

Macron has the right idea. Ukraine's mini-invasion of russia is more dubious though. Even defending taiwan is more of an issue than defending ukraine given it's lack of international recognition.

[Habits]

Last week was a good one nzx up 4 percent, dow and nikkei both up 3. Any guesses what this week will bring, Im picking more of the same as momentum builds

[Valuegrowth]

Arguably, right now geopolitical crisis is a major risk factor for stock markets and other asset markets. They don’t seem to learn from the repercussions of first world war, second world war and other wars. On top of that,other risk factor is historically high asset prices. One has to think about what type of stocks should hold in their portfolio. People cannot live without eating, drinking, taking medicine and using basic commodities in any type of situation. Not the time to hold stocks with extended pe ratios.

[Bobdn]

Monkey Pox might be a risk to our portfolios, apologies if this has been discussed earlier.

Not the disease of course but the policy response.

[Habits]

Monkey Pox might be a risk to our portfolios, apologies if this has been discussed earlier.

Not the disease of course but the policy response.

Almost 5 years since the monetary mayhem of covid took off. Seems yesterday