Black Monday

[Daytr]

Where are you seeing this, can you post some articles etc? Recent articles I am seeing are saying the opposite e.g.
https://www.ft.com/content/b7037ce1-...7-0b1373cec9ce
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkin...-close-second/

There's been a couple of articles floating around over the last few weeks and it's partly why NVDA was sold off more than most.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/tech...arms-race.html

[clip]

There's been a couple of articles floating around over the last few weeks and it's partly why NVDA was sold off more than most.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/tech...arms-race.html

interesting read thanks

[moka]

Where are you seeing this, can you post some articles etc? Recent articles I am seeing are saying the opposite e.g.
https://www.ft.com/content/b7037ce1-...7-0b1373cec9ce
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkin...-close-second/

Sven Hendrich talked about AI being overvalued in the post I just did on the Geopolitics thread.

Sven Henrich: We're Living Through The Most Distorted Business Cycle In History - Jul 22, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2soUDbBzjE

48:47 I interviewed Fred Hickey high-tech strategist about a month and a half ago and he's now ringing the warning bell that the AI movement has gotten way ahead of its skis. We're just not seeing the ROI on the spend, and it doesn't look like we're going to see it anytime soon enough to justify the market valuation that these companies are receiving right now.

And since that conversation I have seen more and more articles begin to appear in more mainstream channels. It's not the dominant narrative yet but it's sort of becoming this. We're entering the show me the money phase of AI. Like where is the killer app? Where are the companies profit surges from implementing AI. We're going into earnings so who knows maybe we'll get some upside surprises there. But if that turns out to be like what has happened in similar periods where you've had this massive mania of hey world's new technology is changing the world this time, whether it was the fiber optic over build out.

So, I think companies need to be really smart when and what to spend, and what are they getting in return for that.

[alokdhir]

NZ Weekly Data Wrap: all eyes on the August MPS

This week was all about the Q2 labour market data. The unemployment rate rose 0.2%pt to 4.6%, in line with the RBNZ’s May MPS forecast and providing no smoking gun for imminent cuts. We have updated our outlook for the labour market. Compared to our previously published forecast, changes to our unemployment rate forecast are relatively minor, but under the hood we have downgraded our expectation for both labour demand and labour supply just a little. Domestic focus next week will be firmly on the August MPS. We expect the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 5.5%. The data since May, and particularly since the July Monetary Policy Review, points to a clearly slowing economy, and solid disinflation progress. That justifies cutting the OCR far earlier than August 2025, as was signalled in the previous Monetary Policy Statement. But while we certainly wouldn’t rule out a cut next week, it is difficult to justify such a radical change in the RBNZ’s thinking based on the evolution of data in recent months. Selected Price Indexes for July are also out next week. We’ve pencilled in a 0.3% m/m lift for both food and rents. MBIE data suggests petrol prices rose 2.5% m/m. Domestic and international airfares and domestic and overseas accommodation prices are expected to lift modestly m/m, but these components often surprise on the day. All up, these data will give us our first steer on how the Q3 CPI is shaping up, but typical m/m volatility means we should always treat the first month of the quarter with a little caution. Another big bank's more calming view . Timing of rate cuts is the ONLY debate left

[Daytr]

big week for traders. im thinking might be making a bear flag. time will tell. anyway time for bed.

Hmmm not sure about that, being a Friday I do expect to see some profit taking.

[alokdhir]

• We have tipped over to forecasting that the RBNZ will indeed start cutting the OCR this week, by 25bp, and continue to cut consecutively by 25bp at subsequent meetings • We said a few weeks ago that if we were the Monetary Policy Committee we would be leaning to towards a cut, but that the RBNZ tends to be more deliberate • We judge, though, that the RBNZ will have now also reached the point where it too assesses it needs to cut the OCR sooner than later

We acknowledge it is a lineball call, with forecasters split on the outcome, but that is the decision the RBNZ is now likely to make. The biggest room for regret has quickly moved to holding interest rates too high for too long, with long-held concerns about easing too soon fading rapidly. Latest from ASB ! They really want a cut sooner then later ...

[maclir]

• We have tipped over to forecasting that the RBNZ will indeed start cutting the OCR this week, by 25bp, and continue to cut consecutively by 25bp at subsequent meetings • We said a few weeks ago that if we were the Monetary Policy Committee we would be leaning to towards a cut, but that the RBNZ tends to be more deliberate • We judge, though, that the RBNZ will have now also reached the point where it too assesses it needs to cut the OCR sooner than later

We acknowledge it is a lineball call, with forecasters split on the outcome, but that is the decision the RBNZ is now likely to make. The biggest room for regret has quickly moved to holding interest rates too high for too long, with long-held concerns about easing too soon fading rapidly. Latest from ASB ! They really want a cut sooner then later ...

A bummer when you're salary bonus depends on your hedge...

[Daytr]

big week for traders. im thinking might be making a bear flag. time will tell. anyway time for bed.

Actually Bull, I can see what you mean now, we'll spotted it wasn't quite there for me but it looks pretty ominous I think on the NASDAQ chart particularly.

After taking a lot of profit on most positions I have now a small short on the NASDAQ.
As you say, time will tell.

[bull....]

Actually Bull, I can see what you mean now, we'll spotted it wasn't quite there for me but it looks pretty ominous I think on the NASDAQ chart particularly.

After taking a lot of profit on most positions I have now a small short on the NASDAQ.
As you say, time will tell.

yep time will tell . very quiet session today. can indicate indecision and potential for winding up to something big. CPI , employment data this week maybe ?
middle east ? gold and oil up big

[alokdhir]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...king-boss-says