Black Monday

[flyinglizard]

tonight would be another show coming, hope that I am wrong

[alokdhir]

We think the RBNZ will cut the OCR by 25bps on August 14 – much earlier than the RBNZ would previously have contemplated. • It’s a close call: it depends heavily on the extent to which the RBNZ’s outlook has softened. • The messaging will be important: we expect the RBNZ to signal measured cuts and a data dependent approach to temper market exuberance.

As we have been flagging since before the July Monetary Policy Review, the time for OCR cuts has been drawing increasingly closer. NZ data have shown that underlying inflation has started to fall more noticeably and should comfortably settle within the 1-3% target band. Activity indicators have pointed to the growing likelihood of another period of GDP contraction, a much softer outlook than the RBNZ had been anticipating. The modest recovery in the housing market has ground to a halt. All the signs point to monetary policy really starting to bite hard, which the RBNZ is becoming alert to. The risk of tight monetary policy overshooting has got real. We think the time for the RBNZ to cut is now – but a lot depends on how much its forecasts have shifted over the past three months. The recent plunge in interest rates – partly but not completely driven by worries in overseas markets – presents the RBNZ with an opportunity – and a small dilemma. It can choose the easy path of cutting and set out in the clear detail of a full Monetary Policy Statement its expectations for the conditions and pace of the easing cycle. This easing could also be data dependent, similar to approaches adopted by overseas central banks who have already started to cut rates. The dilemma is now more in not cutting: there are over 80bp of rate cuts priced in for the three remaining 2024 policy meetings. There would be a rebound in interest rates and fragile consumer and business confidence will take a hit, all for the sake of delaying a cut by 6-12 weeks. Tactically, starting an easing cycle at the release of a Monetary Policy Statement is preferable for clear communication. The November MPS is a long way off. The economy is teetering on the high beam and at risk of a face plant. We do think it’s time for the RBNZ to engineer a quick dismount without too much of a stumble, even if that may feel like a Simone Biles-esque gymnastic move compared to the RBNZ’s May Monetary Policy Statement. ASB latest ...seems like pressure to cut or maybe right thing to do ? Most likely they wont ...will be very BOLD move to cut ...imo

[alokdhir]

Inflation expectations fall for all measures, with inflation expectations from the closely watched 2-year ahead measure down to 2.03%, its lowest since 2021 Q1.
•	Longer-term inflation expectations look to be anchored around 2%, suggesting a high degree of confidence that sub 3% inflation outcomes will be achieved and maintained.
•	Low inflation expectations reinforce the likelihood of an August MPS cut. We now expect a 25bp OCR cut next week.

[causecelebre]

Non tradable still running at 5.4% that still has to be a concern

[Daytr]

tonight would be another show coming, hope that I am wrong

Yep a great show rather than a **** show.
I was long everything, well almost.
Copper, Brent, Silver, DOW & NASDAQ & short JPY. Huge night, huge couple of days.

Switched my Super back to aggressive 2 days ago as well.

Hopefully that US jobs data cements this is a Goldilocks time for stocks.

Interestingly I thought the DOW would outperform the NASDAQ due to tge burst of the AI bubble, but I suppose the latter had been sold off more.

With big tech saying they have been spending too much on AI us NVDA over valued still?

[winner69]

Inflation expectations fall for all measures, with inflation expectations from the closely watched 2-year ahead measure down to 2.03%, its lowest since 2021 Q1.
•	Longer-term inflation expectations look to be anchored around 2%, suggesting a high degree of confidence that sub 3% inflation outcomes will be achieved and maintained.
•	Low inflation expectations reinforce the likelihood of an August MPS cut. We now expect a 25bp OCR cut next week.

There was a lower number of praticantes than usual in that survey which could cast some doubt on the ‘quality’ of thecresults ….esp when those that did participate seem to have anchored their guesses on ~2% at end of 2025

Nonetheless I reckon Adrian will be a ‘hero’ and start cutting next week ……and maybe regret it later in yesr

Love how one bank guy said something like ‘lighting the path to OCR cuts’ …..maybe just let bank commentators run the place with no need for Adrians

[alokdhir]

There was a lower number of praticantes than usual in that survey which could cast some doubt on the ‘quality’ of thecresults ….esp when those that did participate seem to have anchored their guesses on ~2% at end of 2025

Nonetheless I reckon Adrian will be a ‘hero’ and start cutting next week ……and maybe regret it later in yesr

Love how one bank guy saidvsomethingbabout ‘lighting the path to OCR cuts’ …..maybe just let bank commentators run the place with no need for Adrians

U dont miss much mate ....lol ....but I still try

[winner69]

RetailWatch data for July shows July sales in NZ down 5.3% on July last year

Clothing, department stores and hardware down double digit ….even liquor and cafes down 6%/7%

Desperately need rate cuts eh …to add to the extra cash from tax cuts etc consumers have so they can start spending again ,,,if they have anything left after paying the power bill and the rates and insurance.

[clip]

With big tech saying they have been spending too much on AI us NVDA over valued still?

Where are you seeing this, can you post some articles etc? Recent articles I am seeing are saying the opposite e.g.
https://www.ft.com/content/b7037ce1-...7-0b1373cec9ce
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkin...-close-second/

[bull....]

Yep a great show rather than a **** show.
I was long everything, well almost.
Copper, Brent, Silver, DOW & NASDAQ & short JPY. Huge night, huge couple of days.

Switched my Super back to aggressive 2 days ago as well.

Hopefully that US jobs data cements this is a Goldilocks time for stocks.

Interestingly I thought the DOW would outperform the NASDAQ due to tge burst of the AI bubble, but I suppose the latter had been sold off more.

With big tech saying they have been spending too much on AI us NVDA over valued still?

big week for traders. im thinking might be making a bear flag. time will tell. anyway time for bed.