OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Ricky-bobby]

Big chunk (500k @ $0.8) for sale. Say this will put the brakes on the gains we have seen over the past few days. Been fun tho!

[allfromacell]

Big chunk (500k @ $0.8) for sale. Say this will put the brakes on the gains we have seen over the past few days. Been fun tho!

$0.80 would be a great place to take pause and try to cement some of these gains.

You get the feeling a lot of ARV funds are being dumped into OCA without much thought for the price. I think $0.80 is still good long term value but you have to expect a large pullback at some point.

[Daytr]

I said ideally.

A trader makes financial decisions based on the belief that they think they know the direction the market will be headed in the short run.

An intelligent investor makes his decisions based on the current market price, and what he thinks the business is worth. He doesn't pretend like he knows what might happen in the short-term regarding the stock price, but he may stand to benefit from the folly of Mr Market. The greater the volatility, the greater the potential to transact at advantageous prices hence why I said ideally.

But you keep saying you don't know what the business is worth, in your words, nobody does.
Consistency seems to be an issue for you as your thesis changes with the wind.

That's not trading, it's churn. 🤣

You don't think traders look at value?
Some do, some don't and just trade technically.
Best not put things in boxes, especially when your own carton seems to be elastic, which personally I don't think is a bad thing, as being adaptable to conditions is what the 'intelligent' investor would do. (I loved the self adoration by the way).

[Daytr]

I'm not wasting my time going through old posts for something that has already been discussed to death. That's something SailorBoy might do and bore everyone shirtless.
What I did say is that the market doesn't agree with you.
The double counting is everywhere. DMF, up front rent, free loans, float, sales, resales.
ForBar hasn't been proven right yet and without a turn in the property market its all moot anyway., not that you would recognize that.

If the model is so great and the macro doesn't matter, why is OCA & RYM trimming back their development model?
Why have they cut dividends?
Why have they sold off undeveloped land parcels?
Why have they replaced their CEOs?
Why in OCA's case is all their DMF being given back in subsidizing the day to day running of the villages?
Their costs have blown out in recent years and not kept pace with fees. RYM is facing a similar issue.

It's because in a favorable macro environment of low interest rates and a rising property market it's easy to lever and make money hand over fist.
Not so much when the macro environment is the opposite, now that macro environment might be changing slowly and it's what I predicted pretty much re interest rates and that the housing market is ahead of the wider economy. I.e. the wider economy will take longer than the housing market to recover, things are likely to look up for the RVs as the SP is starting to reflect.

I'm still waiting for a response ValueNZ.
If you don't have the answers that's all good, just say so.

[ValueNZ]

I'm still waiting for a response ValueNZ.
If you don't have the answers that's all good, just say so.

Because they are leading questions and I cannot be bothered repeating what has already been discussed.

[ValueNZ]

But you keep saying you don't know what the business is worth, in your words, nobody does.
Consistency seems to be an issue for you as your thesis changes with the wind.

That's not trading, it's churn. 藍

You don't think traders look at value?
Some do, some don't and just trade technically.
Best not put things in boxes, especially when your own carton seems to be elastic, which personally I don't think is a bad thing, as being adaptable to conditions is what the 'intelligent' investor would do. (I loved the self adoration by the way).

Intelligent investor is just the term Ben Graham used as a way of describing the actions and thought processes of an individual that is likely to have greater than average market returns over the long run. Not self adoration, my 2 year CAGR is below the SP500.

[kiwikeith]

Intelligent investor is just the term Ben Graham used as a way of describing the actions and thought processes of an individual that is likely to have greater than average market returns over the long run. Not self adoration, my 2 year CAGR is below the SP500.

There is no shame in that, particularly if you are buying dividend yield stocks. In the six months to June 2023 the SP500 rose 10%. That is for 500 companies. However if you strip out 7 of those companies - Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvida, Amazon, Meta and Tesla - the return was actually negative.

I do wonder if the worm will turn. Former stock market behomeths like the oil companies (7 sisters), IBM, Nokia, the telephone operators, Brierley in NZ etc all came back down to earth.

[Daytr]

I'm still waiting for a response ValueNZ.
If you don't have the answers that's all good, just say so.

That's a cop out.

[Daytr]

Intelligent investor is just the term Ben Graham used as a way of describing the actions and thought processes of an individual that is likely to have greater than average market returns over the long run. Not self adoration, my 2 year CAGR is below the SP500.

Fair enough.

[Bjauck]

The low-ball offer for ARV has certainly given a fillip to OCA. My least successful holding is actually now in the blue. Yay. I hope it is not temporary, but who knows in this market.