OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Intrinsic value is the present value of the estimated future cash flows, discounted at whatever rate an individual chooses. So value is pretty subjective as it depends on assumptions and the discount rate chosen. It's certainly no exact science - hence why Daytr giving a 99c intrinsic value estimate is so absurd.

But say you require a high return, make conservative assumptions, and require a decent margin of safety, well then you're bound to do well.

I don't claim to know exactly what OCA is worth (no one can), but I am certain of one thing - OCA is worth a hellva lot more than $440m.

Hey Value ….. several analysts use a thing called Annuity Earnings to assess RV values

Seems to be a de facto DCF

Any idea how they ‘calculate’ this?

[Daytr]

It's mostly sitting on the balance sheet easily recorded in NAV. Everyone knows OCA is sitting on a large amount of unsold stock. This will be turned into cash as property volumes pick up.

This reads like all the people who told me I was just lucky to buy crypto early. It's all luck.

As a proud Warrior fan I can tell you that takeovers and interest rate cycles changing were always part of the thesis for buying OCA.

It's been about buying a stock criminally undervalued because of market sentiment. Yes we'll take a victory lap when the stocks up 40%.

Up the Wahs!

Then you are misinterpreting what I am saying.
I have said it was undervalued for quite some time, if the property market looked like improving, but the drivers of change in sentiment wasn't going to be the business model, or that suddenly the market has a light bulb moment.

It was going to be about the macro environment and that trigger, which could be a false start but I doubt it, was Adrian Orr's recent statement on the outlook for interest rates.

So, I suppose for those who ignore the macro, then yes they got lucky. Those who could see that the current cycle is coming to an end and bought on that basis, well done.

The same could be said for those who sold after the Covid sugar rush & those who held even though we were entering a very sharp increase in interest rates and you didn't have to predict that, Adrian Orr told us as much, remember he borrowed the phrase, go hard, go early.

So I totally agree re your first statement of unsold stock. But what if Orr had said rates needed to go back up? Anyway we are in agreement it's the macro driving change in sentiment and market value.

[ValueNZ]

come on std dev is widely used in portfolio risk. what metric do you use ?

I think of risk in terms of the likelihood of permanent loss of capital, or long run underperformance. So no one metric per se, but a combination of factors that give me a general idea of the level of risk.

Volatility in the downward direction is not a permanent loss of capital.

[ValueNZ]

Expanding on what I just wrote, and although present value of future cash flows may be the theoretically correct measure of value, I don't really do it, on account of I'm not really bright enough, for a simpleton like me I'm more likely to introduce more errors and come up with higher levels of inaccurate results.

I've been trying to focus on asset value in combination with earnings power value as outlayed in "Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond (Bruce Greenwald)", and even then I'm not the sharpest.

Yeah I don't do proper spreadsheet DCF's either, you can get close in your head anyway. The beauty of this game is it doesn't require complex math.

I've done DCF's in the past, just to learn and understand the model.

[X-men]

So much money coming from Arvida.....!

[Old mate]

You’ve changed your tune pretty quickly from dog stock, dog stock

[X-men]

Always my dog stock..lol

[thegreatestben]

(X-)Men's best friend?

[X-men]

Always ... anything make money...

[Daytr]

I think of risk in terms of the likelihood of permanent loss of capital, or long run underperformance. So no one metric per se, but a combination of factors that give me a general idea of the level of risk.

Volatility in the downward direction is not a permanent loss of capital.

The last statement is correct only if the shareprice recovers, but also applies in an upward move. Nothing is made or lost until it's crystallized, and in ARV's case it has been crystallized for shareholders.