OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[thegreatestben]

Liz just seemed to read (badly) off a sheet of paper in front of her and Brett seems to know plenty but is not ceo material.

My concern is that they are doing just ok, I’m likely to benefit from it very nicely but I can’t help but think we could be missing out on better use of the opportunity oca has.

Doesn’t need to be over selling it but I’m comparing to Jeff Greenslade from HGH, he really gave me a lot of confidence.

I probably got into OCA for the wrong reasons but SR kept me in and gave me confidence to add.

[thegreatestben]

A problem for OCA? More like OCA dodged a bullet and hopefully doesn't have such weak kneed Directors as ARV in the event that a takeover offer was made.

So much short term SP this, SP that, thinking around here. Only good thing about the SP is how amazingly cheap it is for anyone with a longer term outlook.

Agreed, not a target for takeover because the board have skin in the game and wouldn’t sell out for a quick buck

[ValueNZ]

The value is not subjective, figuring out the correct value is another story, and that's making a big assumption that a buyer or seller has even thought about what the value may actually be.

Intrinsic value is the present value of the estimated future cash flows, discounted at whatever rate an individual chooses. So value is pretty subjective as it depends on assumptions and the discount rate chosen. It's certainly no exact science - hence why Daytr giving a 99c intrinsic value estimate is so absurd.

But say you require a high return, make conservative assumptions, and require a decent margin of safety, well then you're bound to do well.

I don't claim to know exactly what OCA is worth (no one can), but I am certain of one thing - OCA is worth a hellva lot more than $440m.

[Cupsy]

Intrinsic value is the present value of the estimated future cash flows, discounted at whatever rate an individual chooses. So value is pretty subjective as it depends on assumptions and the discount rate chosen. It's certainly no exact science - hence why Daytr giving a 99c intrinsic value estimate is so absurd.

But say you require a high return, make conservative assumptions, and require a decent margin of safety, well then you're bound to do well.

I don't claim to know exactly what OCA is worth (no one can), but I am certain of one thing - OCA is worth a hellva lot more than $440m.

Oh yeah good point, I guess it's easy to get bogged down in details. I was thinking from a earnings growth aspect which in reality will play out only one way regardless of anyone's assumptions, but yeah everyone's required return will be different and their desired time period.

In that case winner I stand corrected.

[Cupsy]

Intrinsic value is the present value of the estimated future cash flows, discounted at whatever rate an individual chooses. So value is pretty subjective as it depends on assumptions and the discount rate chosen. It's certainly no exact science - hence why Daytr giving a 99c intrinsic value estimate is so absurd.

But say you require a high return, make conservative assumptions, and require a decent margin of safety, well then you're bound to do well.

I don't claim to know exactly what OCA is worth (no one can), but I am certain of one thing - OCA is worth a hellva lot more than $440m.

Expanding on what I just wrote, and although present value of future cash flows may be the theoretically correct measure of value, I don't really do it, on account of I'm not really bright enough, for a simpleton like me I'm more likely to introduce more errors and come up with higher levels of inaccurate results.

I've been trying to focus on asset value in combination with earnings power value as outlayed in "Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond (Bruce Greenwald)", and even then I'm not the sharpest.

[Daytr]

That's the ARV offer premium to SP, whereas the offer is discount of 0.83x to NTA, which would equate to $1.17 OCA SP. Still cheap as.

If I had ARV I'd be seriously pissed off with the offer for them, like basically selling out for less than the assets value, let alone future earnings.

Each to their own and I suspect individuals will look at their target exit price depending on where they bought. I.e if you bought in the low 50s you probably have a different perspective than someone who bought over $1. But of course this isn't the way to value a company.

Intrinsic value is the present value of the estimated future cash flows, discounted at whatever rate an individual chooses. So value is pretty subjective as it depends on assumptions and the discount rate chosen. It's certainly no exact science - hence why Daytr giving a 99c intrinsic value estimate is so absurd.

But say you require a high return, make conservative assumptions, and require a decent margin of safety, well then you're bound to do well.

I don't claim to know exactly what OCA is worth (no one can), but I am certain of one thing - OCA is worth a hellva lot more than $440m.

So you are saying no one should value a company? Of course no one can do it exactly, and value can change with circumstances, but you & SailorBoy do like stating the obvious.
But you say you can estimate future casflows...

How has casflow grown in the last few years?

For those who missed my point, NTA has grown all the time the shareprice has lost 2/3rds it's value, so NTA growth is not a driver of the SP and as you rightly point out cashflow is and yet you ignore the growing gap between fees and the running costs of the villages and the gap is roughly what is generated by the DMF.

So where is this cash being generated to drive the share price so much higher than say the premium paid for ARV?

Winner's Warriors supporter's comparison is so on the money. Those claiming victory in the first five minutes and it's for the great strategy identity by it's supporter's, despite the fact that a 40 knot ARV gale is at their back that is due strengthen at haf time and then the they are in the hands of referee Adrian Orr for some favourable decisions.

[bull....]

Standard deviation is NOT a good measure of risk.

come on std dev is widely used in portfolio risk. what metric do you use ?

[allfromacell]

How has casflow grown in the last few years?

For those who missed my point, NTA has grown all the time the shareprice has lost 2/3rds it's value, so NTA growth is not a driver of the SP and as you rightly point out cashflow is and yet you ignore the growing gap between fees and the running costs of the villages and the gap is roughly what is generated by the DMF.

So where is this cash being generated to drive the share price so much higher than say the premium paid for ARV?

It's mostly sitting on the balance sheet easily recorded in NAV. Everyone knows OCA is sitting on a large amount of unsold stock. This will be turned into cash as property volumes pick up.

Winner's Warriors supporter's comparison is so on the money. Those claiming victory in the first five minutes and it's for the great strategy identity by it's supporter's, despite the fact that a 40 knot ARV gale is at their back that is due strengthen at haf time and then the they are in the hands of referee Adrian Orr for some favourable decisions.

This reads like all the people who told me I was just lucky to buy crypto early. It's all luck.

As a proud Warrior fan I can tell you that takeovers and interest rate cycles changing were always part of the thesis for buying OCA.

It's been about buying a stock criminally undervalued because of market sentiment. Yes we'll take a victory lap when the stocks up 40%.

Up the Wahs!

[bull....]

one should be asking if oceania is such good value why it was not the takeover target considering arv and oca are similar out of all the RV'S

[X-men]

Doesn't matter bull..SP is already at 71c