GNE - Genesis Energy

[Toddy]

CEN lastest report this morning now has South Island lake storage at 60 percent and Clutha at 49 percent.

My question is. What generator do we invest in to take advantage of a big dry. If any that is?
Its difficult to work through as we don't have indepth disclosure on hedging contracts and customer fixed price contracts.

Maybe the area to invest in is the gas producers. So surely GEN should be a benefactor.

[Davexl]

My own gut feeling from reading earlier lake storage levels and following the climate debate etc is that baseload generation (geothermal, coal, gas peakers) is key compared to the big hydro generators for the foreseeable future. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ation%20assets

That means Contact and Genesis IMO (Contact growing div faster, Genesis with higher div yield) at least until larger grid-scale batteries can be built (look at Aust).

eg. Contact's Tesla battery is quite small compared with Aust examples, at least at this stage. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...BSXYU3G42ONEE/
Huntly Firming Options here, see PDF:https://www.nzx.com/announcements/430950

Also gas & coal stations are having their lives extended in Aust https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...jobid=30632635 until dispersed wind & solar lines distribution can be built, together with THEIR battery backups.

Possibly Transpower will need some kind of capital injection / market float to raise capital to get the job done for additional renewables here on-in in NZ. (Low hanging grid-access fruit will be gone soon).

Disclosure: own both Contact & Genesis.

[Toddy]

NZ is in massive trouble. Gas is required for renewables to work 24 7.

The mining companies mining the minerals for the storage battery's even need gas to mine.

I can see Genesis having another drill at Kupe in the future using the knowledge gained from the previous unsuccessful drill.

[workingdad]

Work overs are quite likely the only offshore oil and gas going forward. After the big middle finger to oil and gas by labour the hesitance to risk hundreds of millions into exploration is significant to overcome. The pay off needs to be there and given the lead time from start to finish is years and the history with labour I’d be surprised to see much more happening in future other than work overs. Even with guarantees national are possibly offering it’s going to be a mountain to climb to get more investment.

As the gas becomes more scarce the price will continue to climb but extraction costs are fairly constant. I think GNE has been priced below its value for a while including risk vs benefit so I’ve jumped in with 4 bites of late and an average buy in price that has me in the green at this level. Had intended another packet but the share price bounced up recently so I’m waiting to see if there’s another opportunity if it drops but happy enough with what I’ve got if it doesn’t.

[xafalcon]

NZ is in massive trouble. Gas is required for renewables to work 24 7.

The mining companies mining the minerals for the storage battery's even need gas to mine.

I can see Genesis having another drill at Kupe in the future using the knowledge gained from the previous unsuccessful drill.

NZ is in massive trouble. Gas is required for renewables to work 24 7.

The mining companies mining the minerals for the storage battery's even need gas to mine.

I can see Genesis having another drill at Kupe in the future using the knowledge gained from the previous unsuccessful drill.

After pissing away $75M of shareholder money on KS9, there is almost zero chance of another well drilling being funded by GNE. KS9 was literally a calculated gamble, it failed very publicly, costing shareholders about 4cps lost dividend. GNE may consider further work on KS9, at a much lower cost, some time in the future. But they are under no illusion that shareholders will not accept any more gambles with their money

I believe GNE are open to offers for their share in Kupe

The NZ gas situation will change significantly once Methanex closes. And that date is getting ever closer. Initially prices will fall, then they will increase massively as extraction and network maintenance costs are spread over considerably lower sales

[Toddy]

Yes, company after company will pull out of NZ as poor little NZ cannot guarantee energy at a competitive cost to produce goods for export, or alternatively saving NZ the costs of importing.

I expect Kupe to drill again one way or another in the future. What any funding looks like for this to happen is anyone's guess.

Maybe the government will think outside the box. But every path is ugly. Taking no path is well, maybe the Kiwi way and people are happy with that. NOT me though. I don't want us to give up the fight for NZ's future energy needs.

[kiora]

After buying farms to plant more forests & rebuild costing $200+m ? after Cyclone Gabrielle the .....

"Slow-motion gas-supply trainwreck triples Pan Pac's gas bill – and uncertainy is ongoing"

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/e...f44a-446239310

How many jobs is that at risk?

[xafalcon]

Yes, company after company will pull out of NZ as poor little NZ cannot guarantee energy at a competitive cost to produce goods for export, or alternatively saving NZ the costs of importing.

I expect Kupe to drill again one way or another in the future. What any funding looks like for this to happen is anyone's guess.

Maybe the government will think outside the box. But every path is ugly. Taking no path is well, maybe the Kiwi way and people are happy with that. NOT me though. I don't want us to give up the fight for NZ's future energy needs.

The only path I see for electricity prices is up up up. Demand growth of 50% over the next 10 years driven by transport and process heat, then another 50% growth the following decade.

Wind & solar alone are not the full answer, and actually become problematic for grid stability as their share of generation increases - just ask Australia and California about that. Base load generation needs to grow in tandem with renewables, otherwise a nationwide disaster is being engineered. And the only meaningful baseload growth in recent history is Tauhara (spelling?) geothermal by CEN. So NZ is making a rod for their own back by only really growing renewables

[mfd]

The only path I see for electricity prices is up up up. Demand growth of 50% over the next 10 years driven by transport and process heat, then another 50% growth the following decade.

Wind & solar alone are not the full answer, and actually become problematic for grid stability as their share of generation increases - just ask Australia and California about that. Base load generation needs to grow in tandem with renewables, otherwise a nationwide disaster is being engineered. And the only meaningful baseload growth in recent history is Tauhara (spelling?) geothermal by CEN. So NZ is making a rod for their own back by only really growing renewables

I could imagine wind quickly becoming significant enough to cause problems without sufficient storage, but solar is still less than 1% of generation - is that really enough to cause problems? Not saying that day won't arrive, but I'd have thought there's some room to grow there.

[jonu]

NZ is in massive trouble. Gas is required for renewables to work 24 7.

The mining companies mining the minerals for the storage battery's even need gas to mine.

I can see Genesis having another drill at Kupe in the future using the knowledge gained from the previous unsuccessful drill.

Ardern's "nuclear fee moment" is going to be a painful decade for NZ and carbon levels isn't it? More coal being imported and burnt. Ardern's legacy!