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22-07-2024, 04:54 PM
#21611
Originally Posted by Daytr
True, but has the value increased or decreased since it traded $1.60? After all the nta has increased substantially in that time.
So what has changed?
Not the business model surely.
Holy, I've been saying this for years now.
The business grew it's balance sheet substantially and is worth more, yet the market valued it at >1/3 the price. And thank god for that.
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22-07-2024, 04:56 PM
#21612
Originally Posted by thegreatestben
I think it helps a lot to have a clear runway to allow the business to keep doing what it has been doing.
Confident and competent would be appreciated. Liz and Brett were a dry combo.
Brett seemed pretty onto it from what I could tell, same with Liz.
Who says that dry is a bad thing?
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22-07-2024, 04:57 PM
#21613
Originally Posted by winner69
OCA share price UP 40% from recent lows …..that’s pretty good
Up the wahs!
If you thought the last 3 months of the OCA thread was entertaining....you aint seen nothing yet!
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22-07-2024, 05:26 PM
#21614
Originally Posted by ValueNZ
Holy, I've been saying this for years now.
The business grew it's balance sheet substantially and is worth more, yet the market valued it at >1/3 the price. And thank god for that.
And yet, going by the premium paid for ARV it's valued at 99c. Seem familiar?
Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.
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22-07-2024, 05:34 PM
#21615
Member
Originally Posted by Daytr
And yet, going by the premium paid for ARV it's valued at 99c. Seem familiar?
You are saying your valuation of oca's intrinsic value is the correct valuation?
Last edited by Cupsy; 22-07-2024 at 05:39 PM.
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22-07-2024, 05:40 PM
#21616
Originally Posted by Cupsy
You are saying your valuation of oca's value is the correct value?
I would never be that bold & things can change over time. But based on the ARV takeover bid at the moment yes.
Definitely not $2.60.
The problem for OCA is that they weren't the takeover target, ARV was. Is their more appetite? Maybe.
My valuation wasn't based on a takeover but that was possible but on a 12 month horizon with interest rates likely to turn.
Last edited by Daytr; 22-07-2024 at 05:44 PM.
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22-07-2024, 06:05 PM
#21617
Originally Posted by Daytr
And yet, going by the premium paid for ARV it's valued at 99c. Seem familiar?
That's the ARV offer premium to SP, whereas the offer is discount of 0.83x to NTA, which would equate to $1.17 OCA SP. Still cheap as.
If I had ARV I'd be seriously pissed off with the offer for them, like basically selling out for less than the assets value, let alone future earnings.
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22-07-2024, 06:10 PM
#21618
Originally Posted by Daytr
The problem for OCA is that they weren't the takeover target, ARV was. Is there more appetite? Maybe.
A problem for OCA? More like OCA dodged a bullet and hopefully doesn't have such weak kneed Directors as ARV in the event that a takeover offer was made.
So much short term SP this, SP that, thinking around here. Only good thing about the SP is how amazingly cheap it is for anyone with a longer term outlook.
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22-07-2024, 06:11 PM
#21619
Originally Posted by ValueNZ
Brett seemed pretty onto it from what I could tell, same with Liz.
Who says that dry is a bad thing?
All I’ll say about ‘value’ is its rather subjective isn’t it
Brett might have been pretty onto it but the business per se and the share price went nowhere during his tenure.
Always had something (often external) to blame ….bad luck / ill fortune and all that …he a bit like the Ryman guy was just unlucky. That doesn’t often change.
Hopefully this Suzanne is blessed with good fortune and it rubs off on Oceania
No comment re Liz
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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22-07-2024, 06:45 PM
#21620
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
All I’ll say about ‘value’ is its rather subjective isn’t it
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The value is not subjective, figuring out the correct value is another story, and that's making a big assumption that a buyer or seller has even thought about what the value may actually be.
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