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27-06-2024, 08:40 AM
#3891
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/433539
Genesis Energy advises that FY25 EBITDAF is expected to be around $460m subject to hydrological conditions, gas availability, plant availability and any material adverse events or unforeseeable circumstances.
Daily gas production at Kupe is expected to be between 37-47 TJ/day as a result of the KS-9 outcome and general field decline. The lower gas is expected to result in higher generation costs due to increased use of higher-cost solid fuel.
“The current gas market conditions are driving a challenging short-term outlook for the country; less gas means more solid fuel and higher generation costs for Genesis. The Company remains focused on executing our long-term strategy to accelerate development of new renewable generation and battery storage, reposition Huntly into a grid-scale peaking and firming facility and displace coal with biomass,” said Chief Executive Malcolm Johns.
Previously announced organisational changes have progressed as planned and FY25 operating expenditure is in line with expectations. FY25 capital expenditure is expected to be around $180m. This includes approximately $80m growth spend relating to a grid scale battery at Huntly Power Station, with final investment decision expected mid CY-2024.
FY24 guidance remains unchanged.
Kupe Reserves
Genesis Energy is in the process of independently verifying Kupe Oil and Gas Field reserves. Current expectations are that field-wide proved and probable reserves (‘2P’) will be revised down by approximately 80 Peta joule equivalents (‘PJe’) . The final reserves position will be released with Genesis’ FY24 full year results on 22 August 2024.
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27-06-2024, 08:48 AM
#3892
Bob, that’s first earnings downgrade for F25 …. Ebitdaf previous $500m now down to $460m
At least $460m is higher than the $450m guidance for F24 so thats good
Still expect reduced divie sometime and share price <$2
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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20-07-2024, 06:50 AM
#3893
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by winner69
Bob, that’s first earnings downgrade for F25 …. Ebitdaf previous $500m now down to $460m
At least $460m is higher than the $450m guidance for F24 so thats good
Still expect reduced divie sometime and share price <$2
Why did you post expectation of sp fall and reduced dividend ?
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20-07-2024, 12:09 PM
#3894
Isn’t GNE poised to benefit from low hydro levels?
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20-07-2024, 12:23 PM
#3895
So..if this coming summer really hot...no rain ...lakes are low ...GNE will thrive?
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20-07-2024, 01:22 PM
#3896
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by X-men
So..if this coming summer really hot...no rain ...lakes are low ...GNE will thrive?
Happening now as far as I can see
Wits quotes wholesale price at 600 mwh
Production cost 50
Rankins producing an extra 600 mwh\
So around 330000 per hour atm
I must have got something wrong
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20-07-2024, 03:35 PM
#3897
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by fish
Happening now as far as I can see
Wits quotes wholesale price at 600 mwh
Production cost 50
Rankins producing an extra 600 mwh\
So around 330000 per hour atm
I must have got something wrong
Typical WITS is $300/MWh - refer transpower weekly report
Rankine cost of production is $113/MWh (Q4 report)
Rankines producing 600MW ish at the moment
$112,200/hr in theory
But they aren't selling all generation into wholesale market. They may have some swaptions left, they will have some PPA's, and their own customers (GNE has 2nd largest customer base) will be contracted at lower prices
The WITS price is driven to $300/MWh by winter demand and lowish hydro storage, then spikes up when wind is low (<300MW ish)
MEL has pulled all their load reduction levers with Tewai Point to reduce demand and preserve Lake levels until snow melt
CEN has been running geothermal at full tilt for months
Another big stationary high pressure over north island could prove challenging during the morning and evening peaks, and would extend high wholesale prices further into spring
GNE makes good money when these conditions combine
And they need to - they just wasted $75M on their KS9 drilling program
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20-07-2024, 04:22 PM
#3898
Not uncommon for drilling work overs to be sub optimal but yeah, that one wasn’t ideal…..
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20-07-2024, 04:50 PM
#3899
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by xafalcon
Typical WITS is $300/MWh - refer transpower weekly report
Rankine cost of production is $113/MWh (Q4 report)
Rankines producing 600MW ish at the moment
$112,200/hr in theory
But they aren't selling all generation into wholesale market. They may have some swaptions left, they will have some PPA's, and their own customers (GNE has 2nd largest customer base) will be contracted at lower prices
The WITS price is driven to $300/MWh by winter demand and lowish hydro storage, then spikes up when wind is low (<300MW ish)
MEL has pulled all their load reduction levers with Tewai Point to reduce demand and preserve Lake levels until snow melt
CEN has been running geothermal at full tilt for months
Another big stationary high pressure over north island could prove challenging during the morning and evening peaks, and would extend high wholesale prices further into spring
GNE makes good money when these conditions combine
And they need to - they just wasted $75M on their KS9 drilling program
Thank you for putting current rankine generation into perspective .
Still could be making an extra 2 million a day for genesis this winter.
Furthermore the cost of generation must fall as more units are produced.
I have felt that that the market does not appreciate the current value of this thermal backup .
The cost of maintaining them,fuel storage etc looks as if it might be shared more evenly with the current negotiations on Huntly firming options-and they will have to be paid to genesis in Jan 2025 and then annual
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