PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[snigmac]

I was thinking similar. If it was a definite no you'd think they would just say so. You would hope the Urologists in the US are requesting it. What troubles me is the corrupt nature of the US medical system and what competing treatments are doing in the background.

In the event of a shutout you'd think PEB would be a likely takeover target for a big US player with pockets deep enough to get its suite of treatments across the line.

Discl; Holding

There were some pretty strong comments from C21 and the Urology community. These comments (written and verbal) are new (I think) and make the scenario different to that in 2023. Who knows tho, heck maybe CrowdStrike will push the decision past 27 July 2024 😆.

[pierre]

I posted this comment late this afternoon on the Stocktalk site:

As I understand it, Friday 26 July is the final date for news of the Novitas decision. We will probably have to wait till Monday 29 for an announcement from PEB though, with the US running the best part of a day behind us.

I think that a negative outcome is highly likely and is largely factored into the current SP. However, there might be some good buying opportunities for the patient investor if the market overreacts, as it usually does, to bad news.

Conversely, it will be fascinating to see how far the SP might rise, if we get a better than anticipated result.

Fingers crossed and GLTAH. Interesting days ahead!

[snigmac]

I posted this comment late this afternoon on the Stocktalk site:

As I understand it, Friday 26 July is the final date for news of the Novitas decision. We will probably have to wait till Monday 29 for an announcement from PEB though, with the US running the best part of a day behind us.

I think that a negative outcome is highly likely and is largely factored into the current SP. However, there might be some good buying opportunities for the patient investor if the market overreacts, as it usually does, to bad news.

Conversely, it will be fascinating to see how far the SP might rise, if we get a better than anticipated result.

Fingers crossed and GLTAH. Interesting days ahead!

Why do you think that a negative outcome is highly likely?

[pierre]

Why do you think that a negative outcome is highly likely?

The vagaries of the American health system don't fill me with confidence that PEB will be able to maintain coverage. I just feel there will be much arse covering by the Novitas decision makers to justify their current stance on the product. That doesn't mean PEB will never gain coverage, but I'm sure Novitas will require more clinical evidence, lengthy independent trials, or find some other tactics to justify sticking to their position. I just can't see them backing down in favour of a little ol' company from Noo Zealand.

I hope I'm 100% wrong, though and will be delighted if I am. (Maybe I'm just trying to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best?)

[snigmac]

Yes back to flipping a coin.

The following article indicates that US states have regulated to allow for biomarkers to be covered: https://open.substack.com/pub/sensit...utm_medium=web

Relevant part as follows :

Twenty states have now passed laws that require biomarker tests to be covered by their state’s insurance providers. The bills cover not just cancer, but any disease for which a biomarker test improves accurate diagnosis