Geo Political Risk

[moka]

Opinion: The attempted assassination of Trump is not nearly as surprising as it should be

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/opinion-the-attempted-assassination-of-trump-is-not-nearly-as-surprising-as-it-should-be/ar-BB1pWpMu?ocid=nl_article_link

The assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump left a nation stunned. But the most shocking aspect was that it was not nearly as surprising as it should have been. For months, politicians, the press and pundits have escalated reckless rhetoric in this campaign on both sides. That includes claims that Trump was set to kill democracy, unleash “death squads” and make homosexuals and reporters “disappear.”

President Biden has stoked this rage rhetoric. In 2022, Biden held his controversial speech before Independence Hall where he denounced Trump supporters as enemies of the people. Biden recently referenced the speech and has embraced the claims that this could be our last democratic election.

Some of us have been objecting for years that this rage rhetoric is a dangerous political pitch for the nation. While most people reject the hyperbolic claims, others take it as true. They believe that homosexuals are going to be “disappeared” as claimed on ABC’s “The View” or that the Trump “death squads” are now green lighted by a conservative Supreme Court, as claimed by MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow.

Rage is addictive and contagious. It is also liberating. It allows people a sense of license to take actions that would ordinarily be viewed as repulsive.
For months, people have heard politicians and press call Trump “Hitler” and the GOP a Nazi movement. Some compared stopping Trump to stopping Hitler in 1933. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) declared Trump “is not only unfit, he is destructive to our democracy and he has to be eliminated.” He later apologized.

Others say that Trump “will destroy the world” unless he is stopped.
The media has been quick to denounce reckless rhetoric from the right while largely ignoring the same language on the left. That included threats against conservative Supreme Court justices before the assassination plot against Brett Kavanaugh.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) went to the steps of the Supreme Court and called out Kavanaugh by name: “I want to tell you, (Justice Neil) Gorsuch. I want to tell you, Kavanaugh. You have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price. You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions.”

Again, I do not believe that Schumer wanted Nicholas Roske to go to the home of Justice Kavanaugh to kill him. However, these politicians also know that some citizens will hear this rhetoric as a justification for violent conduct.
Thus, when the president is claiming that the election may end democracy in the nation, it can be heard as much as a license as a warning, particularly when he adds “we’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye.”

[troyvdh]

Sorry moka I couldnt help myself.No offence intended.

William Skakespeare "Men of few words are the best of men".

[Davexl]

Helen Clark at it again, pretending that NZ has (had) an independent foreign policy -
not when push comes to shove !

Helen Clark and Don Brash warn Government dragging NZ into US-China conflict

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...OWT5N7X6SGIBE/

[moka]

Helen Clark at it again, pretending that NZ has (had) an independent foreign policy -
not when push comes to shove !

Helen Clark and Don Brash warn Government dragging NZ into US-China conflict

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...OWT5N7X6SGIBE/

I don’t have access to the article but here is Helen Clark and Don Brash’s view.

“Prime Minister is jeopardising both New Zealand’s independent foreign policy and its economic security” Statement from Rt Hon Helen Clark and Dr Don Brash.

https://www.helenclarknz.com/my-diary/statement-on-nz-government-jeopardising-nzsindependent-foreign-policy-and-economic-security

In an interview published in the Financial Times yesterday, the New Zealand Prime Minister made statements which amount to a radical change in NZ’s foreign policy positioning and which have major implications for trade, defence deployments, and public spending.

“Just one month after the New Zealand Government hosted the Chinese Premier in New Zealand, the Prime Minister’s comments to the Financial Times strongly suggest that he has abandoned New Zealand’s independent foreign policy”.
“China not only poses no military threat to New Zealand, but it is also by a very substantial margin our biggest export market – more than twice as important as an export market for New Zealand as the US is.

“New Zealand has a huge stake in maintaining a cordial relationship with China. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to maintain such a relationship if the Government continues to align its positioning with that of the United States.

“Does China spy on New Zealand? Almost certainly, just as the US, the UK, and countless others, including New Zealand, spy on other countries. Is China the only country spying on New Zealand, and is it only governments that engage in spying? Almost certainly not. The obsessive focus on spying by China suggests an agenda going beyond alerting and equipping New Zealanders to better manage all relevant risks.

https://www.ft.com/content/85f96392-...5-0847f7c625d2
NZ Prime Minister vows to name and shame China over spying

[moka]

Statement from Peace Action Wellington

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2407/S00092/dangerous-prime-minister-seeks-war-and-economic-ruin.htm

Upon his return from the US, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has fallen in lock-step with the Americans in the push for war with China. This is an incredibly reckless and deeply misguided approach to world affairs,” said Valerie Morse of Peace Action Wellington.

“The hard work of peacemaking is urgently necessary. We should not underestimate for one moment the utter and complete devastation that a war between the US and China would entail for us here in Aotearoa NZ and across the globe.”
“It is deeply worrying that Luxon has suggested that the NZDF be a ‘force multiplier’ in responding to China as if a request for troops was already a live issue. His careless rhetoric is likely to significantly worsen the situation. It is bizarre for a political leader to taunt the country’s largest trading partner so openly.”

“Luxon has said he does not fear Chinese economic retaliation. He is certainly playing with fire. He must be getting very bad advice if he thinks the US is going to open up its dairy markets to New Zealand farmers. The only free trade that the US is interested in is the freedom to do whatever they like. US trade policy has nothing to do with free markets.”

“Christopher Luxon has clearly mistaken US interests for those of Aotearoa New Zealand. He is wrong to imagine that what is good for the US is necessarily good for us.”

“Luxon has also said he is ‘very open’ to joining AUKUS Pillar 2. He is ready to sign up to a military alliance that he doesn’t even know the details of. It’s quite shocking how cavalier and gung-ho he is about lining up behind the US.”

[Davexl]

Very much respect your opinion Peace Action Wellington, but I would suspect that the time for diplomacy in the form of soft power is coming sadly to an end.

China, by it's actions is demonstrating that it will do whatever it damn wants to eg in the South China Sea, Hong Kong & Taiwan (within limits so far), and the pendulum has swung from soft power relations to hard power between peers.

While it may be expedient to attempt to maintain equi-distance between the two peers involved, at the point the pendulum swings towards hard power it becomes necessary to form (& re-form) alliances and firm up military options, initially for deterrence and then for actual conflict preparation. This takes precious time. This is where we are at now.

For New Zealand to attempt neutrality, it needs to be armed neutrality to be credible to outside parties. New Zealand is too broke to afford this - which leads to option two namely alliances.

Australia, while not broke has at least fully recognised the risks of conflict, directly affecting themselves and is putting their money behind where their values lie, as they deem themselves to be highly vulnerable.

NZ is meant to be an ally of Australia's, yet needs to double its defence expenditure to even be in the picture of supportive ally, yet alone being a "force multiplier". I think Luxon might have been a bit over-awed by his American experience this trip around - he needs to contemplate more before he commits himself to paper and speech, we can both agree on that...

[Davexl]

Sound commentary on future foreign policy / trade considerations from Matthew Hooton

Economic outlook improves but Trump looms - Matthew Hooton

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...J2VN4CFBAZ2JU/