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  1. #341
    Guru
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    Sep 2009
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    2,964

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    "What investors should do next after making a mistake"

    FPH:Who has held,who sold?,who traded?
    I brought these in the original float at $4,couldn't believe it when they dropped within 6 months,so I was able to double down at $3
    Sharesight only goes back to 2014 but since then 22.57% compounding.
    Who still holds besides me?

    I held :My mantra is holding companies that are compounding growth >15+% & are intergenerational.Yes the SP got a "sugar fix" from covid but the company is still intrinsically growing at 15% compounding.The SP over reacted on the upside & the downside.What covid did for FPH was enable them to buy a large land bank for their next campus with the proceeds, with little debt.Brilliant for FPH I say.
    Traders could have cashed in big time but that's not my mantra or in my DNA.
    One I did get wrong.GTK Did own but sold when earnings slid.Should have,could have brought back in,kicking myself ):Sharesight says 16.4% compounding if I'd held,if I brought back in 2 years ago,169% ,is that right?
    But that would have meant finding the money from somewhere else.Dilema !

    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...D%20OUT%20HERE

    "“If you’re going to recognise whether you need to upsize or you need to cut, you need a really clear roadmap around what it is that you think is different about this stock from where the market is pricing it at the moment,” Johnson says.
    He argues it is just as important to know when to exit a position as well as knowing when to hang on.
    Johnson recommends starting small on new ideas so you have the ability to build up as your thesis plays out – or cut with minimal losses if you find you need to completely reassess your thesis."

    With initial IFT $10,000 ,sold & reinvested in IFTBW to get more leverage,converted these & kept reinvesting & adding.Now supersized.It would be a mission to know how much I've added over the years but Sharesight says 18.44% compounding since 2014.

    "What would you say is the most critical factor to success when it comes to portfolio management?

    Really good portfolio management is a combination of two quite different attributes.


    I think you need patience and you need aggression, and most people have got one or they've got the other. I think the really good portfolio managers have the ability to combine those two things.
    The great opportunities are rare and you need to wait for them. And then when you see them, you really need to capitalise on it precisely because they are so rare. And putting those two things together I think is the key."

    Double up,not cash up,& NOT FREE CARRIED INTEREST,thats bollocks!

    PS Not my cup of T firstly because of liquidity & al but a recent example of needing to be agressive if you wanted in.Indicaters were firing,SH notices,new investor,directors buying,OBV.
    Then buy "on market" as Balance mentioned otherwise just another missed opportunity.

    https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/...oogle_vignette
    Last edited by kiora; Today at 02:46 AM.

  2. #342
    Guru
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    2,964

    Default

    "What creates the next great "market champion"?"

    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...RKET%20LEADERS

    "One of the fundamental lessons of investing is that the cycle dominates almost everything."

    "These are three examples of signs of businesses that are cyclical. They are good on their own, but given a specific tailwind behind them, they can become extraordinary flavour-of-the-month stories. But this story isn't about them. This story is about creating the kinds of businesses that can surge during one cycle and stay there."

    ""While the timeline of each cycle is highly uncertain, the vast majority have eventually succumbed to new entrants. Some have gone to zero; some are still relevant today but have underperformed the broader market,"

    "In terms of pricing, we see meaningful divergences within the cohort of current champions—in some cases, valuations look consistent with these companies' strong prospects, and in other cases, more outperformance than is likely looks priced in," they said.
    Finally, Bridgewater argues that if you want to avoid "the forces of creative destruction" (and regulation), which have brought down many a market champion, they argue owning an equally weighted portfolio is a superior long-term idea. "

    BUT the higher the spread the lower the potential return.My "portfolio of stocks & FUM of 6" is kept concerntrated to maximize returns on purpose.A concerntrated portfolio if done right produces outperformance & CASH IS NEVER KING! LIQUIDITY IS ALWAYS KING! Why would you pay someone to hold cash???
    Last edited by kiora; Yesterday at 03:05 PM.

  3. #343
    Guru
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    2,964

    Default

    "Put $10,000 in the S&P 500 ETF and Wait 20 Years"

    https://www.investopedia.com/article...t-20-years.asp

    "Indeed, over long-term horizons, the index typically produces better returns than actively managed portfolios, especially after taking into account taxes and fees."

    "If Trump had done so back in 1987, he would have made 26 times his money for an average annualized return of 12.3% by the time he was inaugurated (from 1987 to 2015—the date of calculation for projected net worth). But hindsight is 20/20, and he could not have known that."

    "One of the biggest reasons why it is impossible to predict stock market returns over a long period of time is because of the existence of black swans."

    "November 1968 through December 2020—a span of more than 50 years—the average length of a bull market was 1,764 days (or approximately 58 months), while the average bear market lasted 349 days (11.5 months). Over this period, the average gain in a bull market was +180.04%, while the average loss in a bear market was -36.34%."

    "The most recent 20-year span, from 2001 to 2021, not only included three bull markets and three bear markets, but it also experienced a number of major black swans with the tech wreck and terrorist attacks in 2001, the financial crisis in 2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Despite these unprecedented events, the S&P 500 still managed to generate a total annual return of 8.06% with reinvested dividends."

    "1987 to 2006,return an average of 11.24% with dividends reinvested,"

    " In one of his annual letters to shareholders, Warren Buffett included an excerpt from his will that ordered his children’s inheritance to be placed in an S&P 500 Index fund because the “long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors—whether pension funds, institutions, or individuals who employ high-fee managers."

    https://www.google.com/search?q=what...hrome&ie=UTF-8
    Last edited by kiora; Today at 03:42 AM.

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