OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

**Daytr** · Today, 12:04 PM

Originally Posted by X-men

$100 bet?? I would say .25 cut

When in August? It was a tongue in cheek comment though, as one poster on here doesn't even look out the window to see if there is rain coming.
I wouldn't bet against it,
I predicted some time ago it would be the first half of the year, so I got that a little wrong, although the commercial banks had already started dropping rates in that period.

**Ferg** · Today, 12:54 PM

Nice post ValueNZ - I can't give you any rep given I have to spread it around. Nice to see analysts are finally getting "it".

Something else to ponder about ORAs:

How should we think of a liability that is perpetual and non-interest-bearing? [snip] If RYM were to sell the right to the net cash flow from its current occupational advances (excluding revaluation gains which RYM is accounting for elsewhere), a buyer would have to wait until the end of useful life of the unit that the occupational advance is backing to receive the cash flow. With 30 years and a 7% cost of debt, that would suggest a haircut of close to 90%.

**Daytr** · Today, 03:26 PM

Originally Posted by Ferg

Nice post ValueNZ - I can't give you any rep given I have to spread it around. Nice to see analysts are finally getting "it".

Something else to ponder about ORAs:

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Or treat it as a sale like any developer who gets 100% up front to reinvest in their next project.
The difference is the DMF, but unfortunately that is being chewed up in covering the shortfall in fees.

**Daytr** · Today, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by Daytr

I'm not wasting my time going through old posts for something that has already been discussed to death. That's something SailorBoy might do and bore everyone shirtless.
What I did say is that the market doesn't agree with you.
The double counting is everywhere. DMF, up front rent, free loans, float, sales, resales.
ForBar hasn't been proven right yet and without a turn in the property market its all moot anyway., not that you would recognize that.

If the model is so great and the macro doesn't matter, why is OCA & RYM trimming back their development model?
Why have they cut dividends?
Why have they sold off undeveloped land parcels?
Why have they replaced their CEOs?
Why in OCA's case is all their DMF being given back in subsidizing the day to day running of the villages?
Their costs have blown out in recent years and not kept pace with fees. RYM is facing a similar issue.

It's because in a favorable macro environment of low interest rates and a rising property market it's easy to lever and make money hand over fist.
Not so much when the macro environment is the opposite, now that macro environment might be changing slowly and it's what I predicted pretty much re interest rates and that the housing market is ahead of the wider economy. I.e. the wider economy will take longer than the housing market to recover, things are likely to look up for the RVs as the SP is starting to reflect.

Any answers to why OCA has had to make those changes ValueNZ?

**thegreatestben** · Today, 04:40 PM

grabbed another parcel today, good signs there now. Not quite the bottom but close enough.

**Snow Leopard** · Today, 05:51 PM

Originally Posted by winner69

Deleted … some punters think it was a bad post

They are all miserable because the share price is going up and they are losing their discount.

**X-men** · Today, 06:55 PM

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...d-term-deposit

**Baa_Baa** · Today, 07:24 PM

Originally Posted by Snow Leopard

They are all miserable because the share price is going up and they are losing their discount.

Miserable? Probably devastated that the share price is up 16%, probably bottomed, inflation is falling, property market is bottoming - some rising, and the gap to NTA is closing. Buying cheap OCA might soon be a thing of the past. Devastating!