Black Monday

[alokdhir]

•	Q2 inflation surprises the RBNZ to the downside again, with annual CPI inflation down to 3.3%, its lowest since mid-2021. Highly restrictive OCR settings are generating significant traction.
•	Non-tradable inflation has been slower to cool but this is partly reflective of cost driven influences that monetary policy should seek to look through. Stripping out some of these cost increases suggests that annual CPI inflation is already well below 3% and is rapidly cooling.
•	Today’s data tilts the risks towards earlier and larger OCR cuts. All remaining OCR decisions over 2024 are effectively ‘live’. In our view a 25bp OCR cut in November looks to be the bare minimum of what the RBNZ will need to deliver over 2024.

View of ASB

[Panda-NZ-]

Do Aussie banks make more from NZ with a high OCR?

Hopefully less ripped out of our struggling economy by them.

[Valuegrowth]

Non-tradable inflation still too high at 0.9% for the quarter and 5.4% p.a.

I expect an August cut is a less likely now.

I agree. Those who argue inflation has come down should follow chid care cost, housing rent, air fares, food prices specially in restaurants, prices in retail sector and other places worldwide.On top of that many people unable to buy their first home any longer unless they drop to the correct prices. As underline issues have not solved completely I park my money in safe places now.

[stoploss]

Do Aussie banks make more from NZ with a high OCR?

Hopefully less ripped out of our struggling economy by them.

Be making plenty of money currently as their margins have blown out. Wholesale rates a lot lower and very little movement on mortgage rates ( ANZ 1 year 6.72 % )

[winner69]

From Luxon/Seymour/ Willis down the government crowing about beating rampant inflation

JFK once said “Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.”

[Daytr]

From Luxon/Seymour/ Willis down the government crowing about beating rampant inflation

JFK once said “Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.” BGP

Great quote

[winner69]

Can’t wait to hear Bradford do a rave on 1News tonight about inflation being beaten

She one passionate commentator

[Daytr]

I've been putting further thoughts into the changing interest rate environment and what it means for US stocks.

History is a great predictor of the past.
Most interest rate reductions have been to support an ailing economy and not as a result of reduced inflation. The late 70s excluded.

The US economy is actually doing pretty well and the Fed are looking to lower interest rates when stock markets are at all time highs.

Debt isn't an issue for the mega caps that have driven this incredible rally. But consumer debt will have some relief with lower interest rates, so more to spend.

Earnings are strong & could be strengthened further with lower interest rates. So perhaps history will not repeat.

Interested in others thoughts.

[causecelebre]

US Banks doing well on back of increasing bullishness of a Trump victory. Goldman particularly been on a tear pricing in more M & A and IPO’s following a GPO win. Morgan Stanley also has doing well for the same reason. Also as they mint new wealth through capital finance they direct the recipients towards their wealth management pipeline

[Old mate]

Can’t wait to hear Bradford do a rave on 1News tonight about inflation being beaten

She one passionate commentator

Got a good rant there winner