Black Monday

[alokdhir]

Rate cut coming earlier than Nov!!

Very possible ...but he may will like to start with 50bps cut so may wait till Nov meeting ....though it doesnt matter much now ...market will adjust the rates asap and stocks will start doing their gig also

[winner69]

The number RB looks at is the trimmed mean one

Stats NZ says: The trimmed-mean measures – which excludes extreme price movements – ranged from 3.4 to 3.8 percent in the 12 months to June 2024 quarter. This indicates that underlying inflation is higher than the 3.3 percent increase in the CPI.

Whatever the number things are still costing more and we’ll never get all the price rises over recent years will be ….so pain will continue for a lot

But as long as ‘investors’ make money because of rate cuts that’s good eh

[allfromacell]

Non-tradable inflation still too high at 0.9% for the quarter and 5.4% p.a.

I expect an August cut is a less likely now.

[alokdhir]

The number RB looks at is the trimmed mean one

Stats NZ says: The trimmed-mean measures – which excludes extreme price movements – ranged from 3.4 to 3.8 percent in the 12 months to June 2024 quarter. This indicates that underlying inflation is higher than the 3.3 percent increase in the CPI.

Whatever the number things are still costing more and we’ll never get all the price rises over recent years will be ….so pain will continue for a lot

But as long as ‘investors’ make money because of rate cuts that’s good eh

The way 10Y and NZD behaving ...Markets not very enthusiastic with CPI report ...so more work / wait maybe in order

[Bobdn]

The RBNZ needs to cut the OCR immediately. This will help my unhedged foreign stock picks in the competition.

[winner69]

The way 10Y and NZD behaving ...Markets not very enthusiastic with CPI report ...so more work / wait maybe in order

It was already priced in?

Forward looking are markets I’m told

[alokdhir]

It was already priced in?

Forward looking are markets I’m told

It was not fully ...wait for Aussy blokes to open and show us what real money thinks of this ...

But undertone is good ...we are surely over the hump and a bit

[Valuegrowth]

Rotation is taking place. I kept Interest on small caps as they had low pe ratios. Generally, Institutional investors overlook small caps.Small companies start as small and later they become big. Interest rates may come down at some point but the biggest question is will sky rocketed asset prices come down to the level which can prevent bursting bubbles and major market crashes? Coming period is very crucial for markets.

[winner69]

Knew change of government would fix things

Nat Party on X
Inflation has fallen to 3.3%. We are turning our economy around and winning the fight against inflation.

Bravo

[bull....]

Very possible ...but he may will like to start with 50bps cut so may wait till Nov meeting ....though it doesnt matter much now ...market will adjust the rates asap and stocks will start doing their gig also

market priced that in . inflation well under 3% now if you remove the 3 items outside there control.