Geo Political Risk

[moka]

Rather than Japan with its ageing pop as well,we should be looking at stonger ties to India & Africa?
Ha,SJ already years ahead.

"Kiwi multi-millionaire says Africa holds big opportunities for NZ"
"These days, his business activities are focused on Africa, where his land development firm, Rendeavour, is building large-scale satellite cities in Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...oogle_vignette

In the article Jennings said he wasn't concerned about people judging him over the money he made in Russia.

Renaissance Capital has been a key player in facilitating major capital markets transactions, IPOs and bond issuances in Russia and other frontier and emerging markets over the past couple of decades.
Jennings arrived in Russia in 1992 with the goal of carrying out the country's first privatization, which involved a biscuit factory. At the time, private ownership and entrepreneurship were still illegal in Russia.
Renaissance Capital became a prominent investment bank in Russia, known for its equity placements and M&A deals. It was considered the "go-to house" for Russian equity placements
Renaissance Capital has been involved in several major transactions in Russia and other emerging and frontier markets: Beeline $127.4 mn IPO on NYSE in November 1996 – the first IPO out of Russia.

[moka]

Matt Taibbi worked as a journalist in Russia in the 1990s and saw firsthand how the country was "leapfrogging both Europe and America in its rush to embrace the worst aspects of capitalism,’ i.e a predatory capitalist model.

He’d believed all the tales of a benevolent American aid program helping Russia convert to democracy. He argues the revolution of 1991 was a "greed-fueled intelligence mutiny" that benefited Western partners.

The privatization of Soviet industry in the 1990s was conducted with the counsel of American economists, often in corrupt ways that enriched a small group of oligarchs. Taibbi argues this process was euphemistically described in the Western media as "rough" or "bumpy".

For most Russians, the 1990s were a "horror show of poverty, decline, misery, and humiliation" as the country transitioned to capitalism and democracy. Taibbi says he was "buying the same wishful thinking propaganda appearing in our media" at the time about Russia's "remarkable progress.

So in Taibbi's view, the West played a significant role in the chaotic and corrupt privatization process that followed the collapse of communism in Russia, which ultimately paved the way for Putin's rise to power. He argues the Western media at the time glossed over the hardships most Russians faced during this transition.

Taibbi draws from his own experiences as a journalist in Russia during the 1990s, noting that he was initially caught up in the "wishful thinking propaganda" about Russia's transition to democracy and capitalism. He later realized the harsh realities faced by ordinary Russians during that period.

https://www.theamericanconservative....ussia-ukraine/

[moka]

Matt Taibbi argues that the Russian oligarchs' hold on the country was ratified internationally at a 1996 Davos meeting, with the involvement of prominent figures like Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum.

Taibbi recounts how the Russian elite, including oligarchs, saw democracy as a hindrance to their financial interests. They were supported by Western enablers who were more concerned with maintaining a stable environment for business than with promoting genuine democracy.

https://widgets.weforum.org/history/1996.html

“The members of the Russian delegation, and particularly the business leaders, became deeply concerned about the popularity of [Gennady] Zyuganov and the likelihood of a victory of the Communist party. Many were infuriated that Zyuganov was saying one thing in Russia and another thing in Davos, appearing in the guise of a modern moderate rather than a hard-line Communist. They decided to take action and to throw their financial weight behind Yeltsin’s campaign. The unwritten collective pledge became known as the Davos Pact.”

“As globalization goes on deploying its impact, innovative policies that help contain the mounting backlash against it are urgently needed,” warned Klaus Schwab, Founder and President of the World Economic Forum, and Claude Smadja, then Forum’s Managing Director, in an editorial published in the International Herald Tribune that attracted worldwide attention. “Public opinion in the industrial democracies will no longer be satisfied with articles of faith about the virtues and future benefits of the global economy. It is pressing for action.”

[moka]

The key American economists who facilitated the privatization of Russia in the 1990s were:

Jeffrey Sachs - Sachs was a renowned economist from Harvard who advised the Russian government on implementing "shock therapy" economic reforms, including rapid privatization, to transition Russia to a market economy after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Andrei Shleifer - Shleifer, a Russian-born Harvard professor, was closely involved with the privatization efforts in Russia. He worked with the Russian government, particularly the "Young Reformers" like Anatoly Chubais, to design and implement the privatization programs.

Jonathan Hay - Hay, a lawyer from Harvard, led the Legal Reform Project that assisted the Russian government with the privatization process, including having formal signature authority over some privatization decisions.

These Harvard-affiliated economists and advisors played a central role in shaping and executing the rapid privatization of state-owned enterprises in Russia in the 1990s, which was a key part of the country's transition to a market economy after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Andrei Shleifer and Jonathan Hay were sued because of their actions during the privatization of Russia.

Shleifer was sued by the U.S. government for conspiring to defraud the government. He was accused of making forbidden investments in Russia through his wife while leading a U.S.-funded program to advise the Russian government on privatization.

Shleifer was found liable by a federal judge for conspiracy to help Jonathan Hay, another Harvard affiliate, commit fraud. Hay was found liable for two counts of fraud and one count of conspiracy.
In 2005, Harvard University paid $26.5 million to settle the lawsuit. Shleifer was also responsible for paying $2 million in damages, though he did not admit any wrongdoing.

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2004/09/russia-case-progresses-html

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2...-was-andrei-c/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Privatization_in_Russia

[troyvdh]

moka.Have you been to Russia.

I have twice... once in 83 and about 6 years ago.

Your comments regarding the 90s ..the transition etc for what its worth I believe are totally correct.

Surely very few nations have endured to so much misery.

Obviously you have read Browders books.

[moka]

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/1002...s-he-benefited 21st Jun 19

Kiwi businessman and NZ Initiative director Stephen Jennings says claims he benefited from Kremlin abuses of the market system and the rule of law are misconceived and vexatious.

The New Zealand businessman Stephen Jennings, a board member of think tank the New Zealand Initiative and writer of the foreword to ACT Party leader David Seymour's book, is a defendant in a London court case that alleges he and others benefited financially from close ties to the Government of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The case dates back to Jennings' days in Russia in the noughties with investment firm Renaissance Group, where he was co-founder and CEO. Jennings is one of five defendants alleged to have sought to benefit from Kremlin abuses of the market system and the rule of law when Yukos Oil Company was broken up.

The London lawsuit was brought by entities representing Yukos’ former shareholders.

Last September the NZ Initiative announced Jennings was joining its board of directors. The announcement described Jennings as CEO and founder of Africa's largest urban development company, Rendeavour, describing the Taranaki-born Jennings as a visionary international business leader who has lived and worked in emerging markets for more than 20 years. It made no specific mention of his time in Russia.

The NZ Initiative describes itself as NZ's leading think tank and says its mission is to help create a competitive, open and dynamic economy and a free, prosperous, fair, and cohesive society.

Jennings moved to Moscow in 1993 to become co-head of investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. In 1995, alongside one of the other defendants in the London case Richard Andrew Deitz and others, Jennings co-founded Renaissance Group, or RenGroup.

Jennings was CEO and a substantial shareholder of RenGroup, and the chairman of the group's Renaissance Partners investment committee. RenCap was RenGroup's investment bank. Jennings was CEO of RenCap from 1998 to November 2012, and CEO of RenGroup.

The London case comes after the Dutch Supreme Court ruled in January that the 2007 takeover of the Dutch parts of Yukos Oil by Promneftstroy was illegal. The Dutch case involved the transfer of US$307 million worth of Yukos Finance BV shares to Promneftstroy. from 1998 until January 2013.

[moka]

Visionary international business leader Stephen Jennings gets a mention on the World Economic Forum

https://www.weforum.org/people/stephen-jennings/

Stephen Jennings - Bachelor's in Business, Massey University; MPhil (Hons) in Economics, University of Auckland. Formerly with: New Zealand Treasury; Credit Suisse First Boston, New Zealand, London, Moscow. 1995, co-founded Renaissance Capital; has pioneered foreign investment and capital flows to Russia, leading numerous financings and M&A transactions in Russia and the CIS; has held various positions, including Head, Investment Banking, Head, Sales and COO; currently, CEO, Renaissance Group, responsible for the overall strategic direction of the Group and its companies; Chair, Executive committee and Board of Directors.

[moka]

moka.Have you been to Russia.

I have twice... once in 83 and about 6 years ago.

Your comments regarding the 90s ..the transition etc for what its worth I believe are totally correct.

Surely very few nations have endured to so much misery.

Obviously you have read Browders books.

No troyvdh I haven’t read Bill Browder, but I see he is mentioned in the defamation case.

https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2015/05/j...oogle_vignette
MAY 8, 2015 2:00PM BY DAVID FARRAR
Jennings vs Fairfax
New Zealand-born businessman and rich-lister Stephen Jennings has launched defamation action against Fairfax Media and a senior journalist.
Jennings, estimated to be worth around $950 million according to the National Business Review, was once seen as the country’s richest man. …

In March, Fairfax Media – which owns stuff.co.nz and a string of newspapers around New Zealand – published a story written by senior journalist Michael Field about Jennings’ business activities in Russia and Kenya.

Around a week later Fairfax published a retraction and apology which said the article “may have been interpreted as implying that Mr Jennings’ business activities in those countries were unethical and open to criticism”.

“It also implied that Mr Jennings was a business rival to Bill Browder, a well known American businessman, and wanted to destroy him.

"Fairfax Media has settled a case brought by Stephen Jennings against the company and its former reporter, Michael Field, regarding an article published in March 2015 on www.stuff.co.nz, and in a number of regional Fairfax newspapers, about Mr Jennings and his businesses. Fairfax Media's management, its editors and Mr Field apologise unreservedly to Mr Jennings for the article.

[moka]

Bill Browder's relationship with Russia began when he became the largest foreign portfolio investor in Russia in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union. As the CEO and co-founder of Hermitage Capital Management, an investment advisory firm, Browder made a lot of money in Russia but also learned about the rampant corruption in the country.

In 2005, Browder was denied entry to Russia and declared a threat to national security after exposing corruption in Russian state-owned companies. His lawyer Sergei Magnitsky later uncovered a $230 million fraud by Russian officials in 2008, for which he was arrested, imprisoned, and killed in custody.

Browder then began a relentless campaign against corruption in Russia, particularly following Magnitsky's death. His advocacy led to the passage of the Magnitsky Act in 2012, which imposed sanctions on Russian officials involved in human rights abuses and corruption. This law has become a major source of tension between Browder and the Russian government, with Putin falsely accusing Browder of financial misconduct.

[moka]

Matt Taibbi on Viktor Orban

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/matt-taibbi-putin-onetime-bastard-russia-ukraine/

I don’t know how true this is — I wonder if there’s a reliable history in English that tells the story — but I have been informed that Viktor Orban’s rise to power in Hungary followed the same general pattern as Putin’s, in this sense: he stood up to the corrupt post-Communist clique that exploited its connections to profit off of the sale of Hungarian state-owned industries after Communism fell. He took the nationalist route on behalf of the rural and small-town people who saw Eurocratic elites moving smoothly from their premier social and economic roles in the Communist order to the same position in the post-Communist order. (The book to read about this phenomenon in post-Communist Poland is Ryszard Leguko’s The Demon In Democracy).

The British novelist of Hungarian descent Tibor Fischer tells an amusing version of Orban’s rise in The Hungarian Tiger. Orban was voted back into power in 2010, after the ex-Communists had run Hungary for eight years.

You can’t understand a thing about Orban’s election to power in 2010 without knowing about the infamous leaked 2006 speech given by Socialist PM Ferenc Gyurcsany to a private party conference. It was supposed to be a confidential speech, but someone in the room recorded it, and leaked it to Magyar Radio, which broadcast it, causing two days of serious political protest, and an Orban victory at the next election. This Wikipedia entry about the profane speech, in which Gyurcsany admitted that his government hadn’t done any good, and had lied to win votes, is a good backgrounder. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%90sz%C3%B6d_speech

Orban came in, sorted things out, and put the economy back on track. The Left has never recovered.

Towards the end of the essay, which was published in 2014, Fischer laments that Orban has surrounded himself with some unimpressive characters. But Fischer also says how much he hates the way the Western media simply lies about Orban and Orban’s Hungary. The idea that the anti-Orban media is suppressed here is absurd, he says. Despite all Orban has done for Jews here, including making Holocaust education mandatory, the West still accuses him of anti-Semitism, a groundless charge (the Right criticizing George Soros is no more evidence of anti-Semitism here as the Left criticizing Sheldon Adelson was in America). They condemn Orban as “far right” even though his politics are in many ways center left. And so forth.

Tibor Fischer writes about Orban’s rise from the very beginning, when he gave an incredibly brave public speech near the end of the Communist era, calling on the Russian troops to get the hell out of Hungary.
Fischer’s account of Orban’s rise, and of Hungarian politics of the late Communist and post-Communist era, is highly entertaining. How much do you know about what brought Orban to power, and why Hungarians voted for him? Little to nothing, I bet, because our English language media doesn’t tend to report that kind of thing.

How much do you know about the extent to which the Communist elite remade themselves into liberal Eurocrats, and continued to run things in post-Communist countries? Many of the people who vote for parties like Fidesz in Hungary and Law & Justice in Poland do so out of resentment that these people got away with it, and still get away with it.