OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

Are you in yet bull?

i mentioned on a thread i was busy buying up income plays for div's and cap gain on the assumpton int rates would be falling.
RV's dont meet my criteria as there is no property market turnaround on the horizon. but good luck to holders.

one day i might change my mind lol

[X-men]

Lol..what a dog sheet...just to get people excited....a dog 💩...is forever 💩

[allfromacell]

Very strong day for listed RV stocks. It certainly feels like the bottom is in.

US CPI is showing increasing risks of entering deflation with the last 3 MoM prints being 0.3%, 0% and now -0.1%... Certainly not an inflationary trend.

Reserve banks have once again found themselves caught off side. They've been too reluctant to read the room which ultimately means they'll again have to act more aggressively than necessary.

Our own bank is particularly embarrassing with such an extreme flip fop. I expect a cut in August with a total of 75bps trimmed before year end.

The valuations these businesses trade at is ridiculous and we don't need a hot property market to get significant gains from here. Just an improvement in sentiment and rationale, I suspect the turning of the interest rate cycle will likely to be that catalyst.

Strap in people, my bags are packed across the sector.

UP THE WAHS!

[Baa_Baa]

The valuations these businesses trade at is ridiculous and we don't need a hot property market to get significant gains from here. Just an improvement in sentiment and rationale, I suspect the turning of the interest rate cycle will likely to be that catalyst.

Strap in people, my bags are packed across the sector.

Absolutely agree, well said imo. Forbar's report is also insightful, (albeit a hard read), focusing on how RV's need to rejig the reporting to demonstrate how they're returning on investment to shareholders.

I like the idea of separately reporting development from accomodations operations, pretty much what the REITS have done, with some like Stride even setting up two reporting entities to make the distinction. In any event they call out, via various valuation methods, the RV's are grossly undervalued by market cap.

It was also encouraging to see Forbar make numerous mentions of how the zero interest residents uncallable ORA 'loans' could be accounted for, versus the longer dated DMF returns, sales and re-sales. Sitting on the balance sheet as a pure liability, versus the value creation it provides for asset growth and future cashflows, is lost in current reporting conventions.

But back to the economy, I've been here a few times, not just with OCA, but whole sectors being hammered by the economic settings, '86-7, dot bomb, GFC, Covid ... these are times that while painful on a day to day basis are the catalyst for a setup for outperformance prosperity in equities. It's these times that we are thankful for accumulating cash and creating the opportunity to pile into a recovery.

Some call that value investing. My truck was backed up big time loading up on a few shares this week, OCA included. It might be a bit wobbly until interest rates are actually cut, but the scene is being set for an RV sector recovery.

[winner69]

Oceania shares had a good week ending up 1 cent at 55 cents even though at one point it looked like ‘this is our year’ came in a few hours of super excitment. Fans were buoyed by a ‘RB pivot’ and the circulation of an analyst ‘dog sheet’ of a report about Ryman which basically said the market just doesn’t understand RVs but once it does riches will flow. This paper was raved about by fans - some became bigger fans and it seems Oceania got a lot of new fans. Yes they say with even more fervour ‘this is our year’. GO OCEANIA YOU BEAUTIFUL THING.

No game for the Warriors this weekend as they have the bye. How the NRL works this gives them points (for not losing lol) and as such they’ll probably move up the points table. Fans spent early part of week lamenting how unfair the refs have been and (a bit like it is for Oceania) working against them. However the quiet week gave them time to refresh their fandom and they seem ever more convinced that ‘this is our year’ UP THE WAHS

Casual observer is bemused that for both poor performace is not their fault and it’s thevref and market not understanding them. However things were positive for both and the fans could be right about ‘this is our year’. Maybe times have changed but the casual Observer can’t help but think the exuberance might be short lived. No

[Toddy]

Damn, can't even take some of the gains and back the Warriors this weekend.

[winner69]

Lol..what a dog sheet...just to get people excited....a dog ��...is forever ��

Maybe a bit than a ‘dog sheet’ but it succeeded in getting punters excited….a bit like their effort in promoting Radius a week orcos ago.
But
I haven’t read the full report yet but there apparently is a lot more to it than what was posted here.

I gather it says that for Ryman to get that 300% gain there are many ‘they need to do this’ and ‘if this happens’ etc etc

Let’s see how it pans out eh

I’m all for Forbar touting RV to be clearer in their reporting and ‘demonstrating’ how they create value.

A great opportunity for Oceania to be leaders and go down that path. Even more so seeing they have a new CEO starting soon. ..but I fear that might be a step too far for such an entrenched Board. I reckon they’d need a new CFO as the incumbent is even more entrenched in the Oceania ways of doing things and hard to see her taking a new ‘modern’ approach to financial reporting.

Could be interesting

[Cupsy]

Maybe a bit than a ‘dog sheet’ but it succeeded in getting punters excited….a bit like their effort in promoting Radius a week orcos ago.
But
I haven’t read the full report yet but there apparently is a lot more to it than what was posted here.

I gather it says that for Ryman to get that 300% gain there are many ‘they need to do this’ and ‘if this happens’ etc etc

Let’s see how it pans out eh

I’m all for Forbar touting RV to be clearer in their reporting and ‘demonstrating’ how they create value.

A great opportunity for Oceania to be leaders and go down that path. Even more so seeing they have a new CEO starting soon. ..but I fear that might be a step too far for such an entrenched Board. I reckon they’d need a new CFO as the incumbent is even more entrenched in the Oceania ways of doing things and hard to see her taking a new ‘modern’ approach to financial reporting.

Could be interesting

Another couple of interesting points mentioned seemed similar to what someone else has talked about on this thread not all that long ago (not here currently), comments wrt development debt being deducted from assets for nta calc, and how sales cash flow should be considered (neither operating or financing, but rather investing).

Maybe not as outlandish as some were saying after all?

[dubya]

https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/35...llage-quandary

[winner69]

https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/35...llage-quandary

Suppose interesting article but paywalled and stuff not one I’d subscribe too so I’m the loser eh