Black Monday

[stoploss]

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/07/10/r...55-once-again/

"In the March quarter of 2024, non-tradeable inflation was measured at 5.8%, and 5.9% in the quarter of December 2023, and was at 6.3% in the quarter prior.

This more stubborn inflation means the RBNZ will likely not cut the OCR for some time.

ANZ and Westpac both forecast a downward change in the OCR in early 2025, while RBNZ internal tracking predicted it won’t go down until the second half of 2025.

Last week ASB revised its forecast for downward movement in the OCR from February 2025 to November this year."

Hi Value G , the RBNZ is not mandated to keep “ Non tradeable” inflation in the band .
So if we get a low CPI print next week , by the time they update the Aug MPS numbers a cut in Nov can be on the cards . The wholesale interest rate market certainly took things considerable lower post the OCR update today .

[winner69]

RB headline yesterday - Inflation Approaching Target Range

Adrian must have heads up from Stats NZ

Stats NZ headline next week CPI falls to 3.5%

And don’t overlook what Baa_Baa said -

The point for a retail investor, is to stay ahead of the curve in revaluations. Monitor your favourite equities market price performance and don't let the recession go to waste, get in or get some more while they're massively discounted, and enjoy the capital gains upside to come.

[alokdhir]

RB headline yesterday - Inflation Approaching Target Range

Adrian must have heads up from Stats NZ

Stats NZ headline next week CPI falls to 3.5%

And don’t overlook what Baa_Baa said -

The point for a retail investor, is to stay ahead of the curve in revaluations. Monitor your favourite equities market price performance and don't let the recession go to waste, get in or get some more while they're massively discounted, and enjoy the capital gains upside to come.

When I say its time to invest for future during deep downtrends ....then U call me ramper ...and overenthusiastic ...perma bull ...what not ...lol

[bull....]

RB headline yesterday - Inflation Approaching Target Range

Adrian must have heads up from Stats NZ

Stats NZ headline next week CPI falls to 3.5%

And don’t overlook what Baa_Baa said -

The point for a retail investor, is to stay ahead of the curve in revaluations. Monitor your favourite equities market price performance and don't let the recession go to waste, get in or get some more while they're massively discounted, and enjoy the capital gains upside to come.

when will corporate earnings bottom ? int rate cut might take till yr 26 to feed thru so are you suggesting now good time to buy 2 yrs ahead of time.

be interested to know what on your radar

[winner69]

When I say its time to invest for future during deep downtrends ....then U call me ramper ...and overenthusiastic ...perma bull ...what not ...lol

Hey alokdhir mate …never called you a ramper …..just admire your optimism

[alokdhir]

when will corporate earnings bottom ? int rate cut might take till yr 26 to feed thru so are you suggesting now good time to buy 2 yrs ahead of time.

be interested to know what on your radar

Mate Bull ....SP of any stock is based on EPS plus rates based valuation multiples ...when rates fall ...multiple expansion kicks in faster then eps expansion ...

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=winner69;1060292]Hey alokdhir mate …never called you a ramper …..just admire your optimism[/QUOTE

"Hey alokdhir ….you worry me when you go on a ramping spree like this morning

Makes me ask myself ‘what’s up, why is alokdhir doing this’

Minding you I’m ramping thl eh so can’t talk "

Dated 6/05/2024 ...MFT thread ....just for record ...as I know u mean well always ...

[clip]

what NZX stocks are sensitive to inflation, and should increase in price when interest rates are reduced?

From ChatGPT:
NZX stocks that tend to be sensitive to inflation and may increase in price when interest rates are reduced include companies in sectors such as real estate, utilities, and technology.

1. Real Estate: Companies like Precinct Properties (PCT), Stride Property Group (SPG), Goodman Property Trust (GMT), Vital Healthcare Property Trust (VHP), and Argosy Property (ARG) are in the real estate sector. These companies often perform well in lower interest rate environments as borrowing costs decrease, making real estate investments more attractive.
   
2. Utilities: Genesis Energy (GNE) is a notable stock in this sector. Utility companies can benefit from lower interest rates due to reduced financing costs for their capital-intensive operations.
   
3. Technology: Companies such as Rakon (RAK), ikeGPS Group (IKE), Vista Group International (VGL), and Serko (SKO) are in the technology sector. These firms can benefit from lower interest rates as cheaper borrowing costs can spur investment and growth in technology.
   
4. Transport and Infrastructure: Infratil (IFT) and Mainfreight (MFT) are infrastructure-focused companies that can also benefit from lower interest rates. Infratil, in particular, has been highlighted as a "stock to watch" due to its diverse investments in essential services.

These sectors are generally more sensitive to interest rate changes because their capital expenditure and operational costs are heavily influenced by borrowing costs. Lower interest rates make financing more affordable, potentially leading to increased profitability and higher stock prices​ (StockTalk)​​ (Sharesight)​​ (Simply Wall St)​​ (RNZ)​.


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would people agree with this?

[bull....]

Mate Bull ....SP of any stock is based on EPS plus rates based valuation multiples ...when rates fall ...multiple expansion kicks in faster then eps expansion ...

stock buybacks do the same.

anyway the rate of knots wall st is climbing on a narrow breadth what happen when it crashes ?

[bull....]

Record numbers leaving New Zealand, with more departing in May than arriving - StatsNZ

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...riving-statsnz