Black Monday

[winner69]

NZ10Y down 10 bps after hearing RBNZ ...market also thinks RBNZ preparing it for cuts in near future ...NZX shud become buoyant now for some years ahead

NZ10Y looks like it fell off a cliff eh

[Jaa]

NZ10Y looks like it fell off a cliff eh

8bps is a pretty small cliff, reckon Mr Bond will survive.

[winner69]

8bps is a pretty small cliff, reckon Mr Bond will survive.

Chart look dramatic though eh

Yep Mr Bond might be higher at end of week

[winner69]

Big headline in RBNZ …..brave call ..but sucked everybody in and made them happy


OCR 5.50% - Inflation Approaching Target Range

[alokdhir]

The RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.5%, as was universally expected
•	There were plenty of early signs that the RBNZ is starting to eye up data for when it should cut the OCR
•	We are confident the RBNZ will cut in 2024, in November by 25bp at the least if not earlier or bigger

[Jaa]

Chart look dramatic though eh

Yep Mr Bond might be higher at end of week

Looks like Mr Bond lives a pretty normal life to me...

NZ 10Y yearly.jpg

[Daytr]

Seems like Orr hasn't learned his lesson about saying too much.
Will banks now start reducing their mortgage rates further ahead of what Orr has indicated?

[Panda-NZ-]

Doing some browsing on seek australia (looking at my options) and there are some roles where they manage things on behalf of NZ companies even from Australia (finance, payroll, accounting, IT etc). So to a small extent NZ jobs are actually being shifted over there.

Your payroll may be done by someone in sydney.

[Valuegrowth]

Big headline in RBNZ …..brave call ..but sucked everybody in and made them happy


OCR 5.50% - Inflation Approaching Target Range

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/07/10/r...55-once-again/

"In the March quarter of 2024, non-tradeable inflation was measured at 5.8%, and 5.9% in the quarter of December 2023, and was at 6.3% in the quarter prior.

This more stubborn inflation means the RBNZ will likely not cut the OCR for some time.

ANZ and Westpac both forecast a downward change in the OCR in early 2025, while RBNZ internal tracking predicted it won’t go down until the second half of 2025.

Last week ASB revised its forecast for downward movement in the OCR from February 2025 to November this year."

[Baa_Baa]

Regardless of whether the OCR cuts are later this year or early next year, concensus appears to be that rates will be cut as inflation tracks down to the target band of 1-3%.

The equities market being forward looking will start pricing in these cuts to OCR in anticipation. Inflation prone equities that have taken a beating will bottom out and SP's will start their recovery, some already have.

The point for a retail investor, is to stay ahead of the curve in revaluations. Monitor your favourite equities market price performance and don't let the recession go to waste, get in or get some more while they're massively discounted, and enjoy the capital gains upside to come.