Black Monday

[mike2020]

Take a look at the nzsx50 and the snp500 over the last 6 months. One is nearly the same and the other is up close enough to 20%.

You couldn't find a rental in our area a year ago, people begging for one on Facebook, now there's a few and mostly new builds that are not selling or renting as quickly.

And moving to Aus seems as popular as it was in the late 80s.

[bull....]

And just to think Adrian Orr said at the last meeting they discussed the possibility of raising rates... As mentioned, I viewed this as talking tough rather than any likely action.

I think Orr will continue to talk tough until they are ready to act. A skill he should have learned a lot earlier, rather than saying too much.

i agree he keep talking tough , although he must be starting to sweat that the economy heading over the cliff rapidly now.

[Leemsip]

employment and house prices havent really been smashed yet.... I guess they are both pretty slow moving so might play out over the next 18 months or so....

Salt Funds comment.........
"The key question for NZ investors to ask right now is how willeach stock fare when the OCR is suddenly cut by 50-100bp?We have been buying those names that should benefit, whileaccepting the risk that they may still have a little earnings riskstored up. At some point, our market will buy the lastdowngrade. We vividly remember how dreadful the recessionwas in 1990/91 but how strong the bull market was on theback of rate cuts in 1992/93."

Bull.... like you I have some bonds which will need selling early next year for huge profit so I can charge back into the sharemarket.....

[winner69]

i agree he keep talking tough , although he must be starting to sweat that the economy heading over the cliff rapidly now.

Media doing a good job promoting the economy going over the cliff and such things as .ore and more unpaid bills ....hope our Adrian doesn't watch the news or read those bank commentators reports...he'd be getting a misplaced view of the economy

[stoploss]

i agree he keep talking tough , although he must be starting to sweat that the economy heading over the cliff rapidly now.

He overshot it on the downside with .25 % OCR and was too timid to raise rates both fast enough and agressively to stop inflation.
It's no surprise he is overdoing it on the topside as well. They are not helped by using data that's 3 months out of date for their decisions .
They are always looking in the rear view mirror, when he should have daily data ( The banks have the EFTpos spend by the minute ) can't be that hard in an electronic age ....
So just like any commodity , or market in Boom or bust it overshoots and undershoots , the Governor is doing the same .....

[Daytr]

He overshot it on the downside with .25 % OCR and was too timid to raise rates both fast enough and agressively to stop inflation.
It's no surprise he is overdoing it on the topside as well. They are not helped by using data that's 3 months out of date for their decisions .
They are always looking in the rear view mirror, when he should have daily data ( The banks have the EFTpos spend by the minute ) can't be that hard in an electronic age ....
So just like any commodity , or market in Boom or bust it overshoots and undershoots , the Governor is doing the same .....

He did overshoot, but that's easy to say in hindsight when no one really knew what was coming with Covid.

He was also the first to raise rates & they were raised aggressively compared to the rest of the world, but his biggest mistake imo was the language he used. Go hard, go early so we can bring rates down again quickly.

The latter part of that statement meant banks weren't passing on the full extent of the rate increases and the 2 & 3 year rates weren't where they should have been. That in turn meant rates had to stay higher for longer.

He obviously wasn't to know the impact of Gabriele, China's very lagged Covid response that impacted supply chains or that the Labour Government would continue spending like no tomorrow.

Most of those things have now passed, and I would hope that would start enter his thinking, although if he's smart, keep shum until they want to act on rates.

He needed to take a leaf out of Greenspan's goblygook speak which was quite a deliberate attempt to confuse markets and no one would have any real idea what he was thinking.

[stoploss]

Hi Daytr "He was also the first to raise rates & they were raised aggressively compared to the rest of the world,"
This is a bit of misinformation , South Korea,Norway & the Czech republic beat him to it. When you say aggressively , initially they were only 25 point hikes . If 2.5 % was a neutral rate
back then he should have been hiking in bigger increments earlier to at least get it to a neutral rate.

[Ggcc]

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/1...0%99s-business

OCR maybe heading down by end of this year (this is what I felt for a while)…… Many have been saying this who talk to business owners on the regular

[Valuegrowth]

May be overvlaued assets could have sell-off. I don't have any overvalued stocks.

https://www.aliteq.com/jp-morgan-predicts-a-major-us-stock-market-crash/#google_vignette

JP Morgan predicts a major US stock market crash

[Valuegrowth]

Deleted the duplicate message.