Black Monday

[Valuegrowth]

Ministry of Primary Industries warns chances of bird flu outbreak in New Zealand are rising


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...re-rising.html


have you done your homework to work out which stocks will get hammered if it did come here ?

This egg producer is riding high up by more than 4% and bucking the trend. Bird flu there has not affected and poultry stocks there going to get hit 52 weeks high. I took positions in consumer staples.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CALM...ycsrp_catchall

[winner69]

All going to plan ..eventually

From Westpac NZ Employment Confidence -

Turning for the worse

Employment confidence fell by 13 points to 91.4 in the June quarter, reaching its lowest level since 2020.

Jobs are seen as increasingly hard to come by, signalling a further rise in the unemployment rate in the months ahead.

Perceptions about pay growth and job security also declined.

Confidence was down across all regions and age groups.

[Valuegrowth]

History is repeating. If markets get hit with black swan events like banking crisis, debt crisis or any other asset crisis unemployment rate will be rocketed. As Long as depression is not there once markets enter bear market, it will follow the bull market. Much needed major corection in all time high assets are on the way.

[Valuegrowth]

Are they ditching NVDA for OCA? Would be a smart trade.

Dropping NVDA these days is just the tip of the iceberg.

[Daytr]

Dropping NVDA these days is just the tip of the iceberg.

I'm not sure that this is nothing more than a profit taking pull back. US stocks do seem expensive especially when sitting in depressed NZ, but profits of the tech titans has largely kept growing and some at pretty strong rates.

I am yet to see the catalyst for a sharp correction, obviously something from left field could eventuate, but then interest rates would probably be dropped quickly.

[Jaa]

It is just AI driving the NASDAQ higher isn't it? Nvidia now worth 3.34T, up 43% in a month and now the most valuable company in the world.

The thing is people are working out it is not real AI, just algebra and therefore derivative. Thus the hallucination problem is built in. Sam Altman has a problem with the truth and has oversold what it can do.

This would be fine, except that AI is very expensive, both to train and to answer queries. Lot of effort now going into more efficient models like GTP4o and caching which need less hardware. Sure the models become a bit less accurate but since you can't rely upon them to be 100% accurate anyway who cares.

Andriy Burkov's twitter makes for interesting reading.

IFT seems to be running into this trap, why would anyone use data centres in Aus/NZ for AI where it costs (way) more to do so?

Pretty near the peak of the bubble IMO.

Looks like I called this to the day.

Nvidia rising by the value of Lockheed Martin in a day was ridiculous.

Even go-go stock investment fund, Frazis Capital is out.

[Daytr]

Looks like I called this to the day.

Nvidia rising by the value of Lockheed Martin in a day was ridiculous.

Even go-go stock investment fund, Frazis Capital is out.

That got old quick...
Just kidding, NVDA in someways are taking the least risk by being the supplier to the other big tech firms who are making the big promises on the benefits AI will deliver.

There will always demand for faster chips well unless chip tech gets surpassed which is quite possible in the future.
That's not to say NVDA won't be at the front of the next evolution, but who knows, the risk to them and its a big risk, is its another player from left field.

[Jaa]

That got old quick...
Just kidding, NVDA in someways are taking the least risk by being the supplier to the other big tech firms who are making the big promises on the benefits AI will deliver.

There will always demand for faster chips well unless chip tech gets surpassed which is quite possible in the future.
That's not to say NVDA won't be at the front of the next evolution, but who knows, the risk to them and its a big risk, is its another player from left field.

Hard disagree. NVIDIA is equivalent to a mining services company, boom and bust.

Look at Sun or Intel during the dot com boom to see what happens to the share price.

Or Nvidia's history itself. Michael Frazis says this well.

If you’ve been reading these notes you’ll know how bullish we’ve been on semiconductors, with Nvidia our top pick. We set extremely optimistic profit targets across our semiconductor exposure, and these were hit in the recent surge.

I am sure we’ll get another entry point - perhaps quite soon - and will go again. If you applied this approach systematically to Nvidia over the last 25 years, covering the dotcom crash, 2008-2009, COVID, 2022, and multiple 65-90% drawdowns, you earned nearly 3x the return of the stock itself (1500x vs 500x), with substantially lower drawdowns (53% vs 90%).

[winner69]

Australia CPI SHOCKER 4.0% …increase from May and higher than expected


Seems Reverse Bank Australia will have to hike rates in already stumbling into Recession economy.

[alokdhir]

Australia CPI SHOCKER 4.0% …increase from May and higher than expected


Seems Reverse Bank Australia will have to hike rates in already stumbling into Recession economy.

Thats what happens when Central Banks are WAY behind the curve and very hesitant to inflict pain for fear of being unpopular ... RBA raised rates so reluctantly ...maybe now they will need do Volcker !!!