ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[Ricky-bobby]

Blast from the pass… but I recon there needs to be two tiers of interest rates. Rural (primarily industry) & other… got to give farmers a break and get Nz pumping again. The only way we can get ourselves out of the current funk is get export humming and a key bit to this is relieving debt for primary industry. Would also keep a handle on inflation as well?.. Orr needs to do something fast, as he is currently driving a bus into a wall at pace!

[Aaron]

Not RBNZ related but interesting that the exodus of Kiwis continues to increase. Aussie and the UK have always had higher wages, I wonder what is causing them to leave. Who is leaving, young, old, skilled, unskilled? Will they ever come back?

Not to worry though labour from India, the Phillipines and China replacing them, although this is slowing. Maybe NZ is already a third world country so is less appealing even for these guys. Although with Aussie following a similar path on immigration, NZ could be a back door into Aussie for our more recent arrivals. My Somali tax driver in Melbourne the other week was briefly a Kiwi years ago but moved to Aussie before they shut the door last time.

Our debts and deficits might be more appropriate for a third world country. I bet a lot of third world countries have low tax and small govt as well. Not a lot of wealthy western countries do though. Maybe the emigrants don't share our current govts vision for the country. I imagine there is a comfortable asset owning class happy to keep things as they are though.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/e...it-record-high

This is RBNZ related.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...OPAQIJVVQ63LA/

Not sure who was more stupid the desperate first home buyers jumping on the rapidly disappearing band wagon of home ownership or Adrian Orr and the MPC for creating the runaway housing inflation that forced people into doing things that in hindsight look rash and/or risky especially in light of current interest rates and warnings at the time.

One good thing is that they are probably mostly young people who are now trapped in NZ by their mortgage so they won't be able to flee without realising a loss of their deposit. I guess they could rent it out, with interest deductibility they might never pay tax in NZ again, if only Chris could also remove the ring fencing of residential rental losses.

Never mind a cut to interest rates can't be too far away. I suspect Adrian might be cut from the same cloth as Gideon Gono.

[Aaron]

Paul Conway is a piece of work as well as Adrian.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU24...aul-conway.htm

According to Paul

"Inflation spiked higher during the pandemic on a mix of supply and demand-related factors. Shortages of labour and materials, in an environment of high demand, were key in driving up inflation."

Was demand driven by 0% interest rates and Funding For Lending as well as printing money to give to the Labour govt who showered the nation with cash. Did a concern for a 10% drop in house prices cause you to nearly double the money supply?

This from the same Paul Conway who said when inflation first started to tick up that "we should all just accept that we will be poorer". He should have qualified that statement with "you wage slaves should all just accept that you will be poorer", that way we can keep our asset gains without wages and CPI inflation going up.

Looks like it worked, with NZ topping the global rents to income chart recently. Great work Paul, asset owners and landlords should be sending you thank you cards. Young people without wealthy parents and landless, assetless, wage slaves should be joining the exodus to Australia.

[winner69]

Wonder of Adrian succumb to all the stories in the media saying how bad things are and peoples life’s are being ruined blah blah blah and cut rates before he should

You never know with Adrian

[stoploss]

Paul Conway is a piece of work as well as Adrian.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU24...aul-conway.htm

According to Paul

"Inflation spiked higher during the pandemic on a mix of supply and demand-related factors. Shortages of labour and materials, in an environment of high demand, were key in driving up inflation."

Was demand driven by 0% interest rates and Funding For Lending as well as printing money to give to the Labour govt who showered the nation with cash. Did a concern for a 10% drop in house prices cause you to nearly double the money supply?

This from the same Paul Conway who said when inflation first started to tick up that "we should all just accept that we will be poorer". He should have qualified that statement with "you wage slaves should all just accept that you will be poorer", that way we can keep our asset gains without wages and CPI inflation going up.

Looks like it worked, with NZ topping the global rents to income chart recently. Great work Paul, asset owners and landlords should be sending you thank you cards. Young people without wealthy parents and landless, assetless, wage slaves should be joining the exodus to Australia.

Paul Conway wasn't at the RBNZ over the covid period ( May 2022) .....so can't bash him for those actions.

[Aaron]

Paul Conway wasn't at the RBNZ over the covid period ( May 2022) .....so can't bash him for those actions.

I think he should get a hard time for his statement that "we should all just accept that we will be poorer" basically after 20% odd annual rises in houses prices he was telling workers not to ask for pay rises to keep pace with inflation, just accept you will be poorer. What a cu*t.

Surprised to hear this from Tony Alexander, cheerleader for the NZ housing market whose positive musings over the years were well supported by RBNZ policy.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...5b4f21cd&ei=26

Not sure why he is turning on the RBNZ now but hard not to disagree.

Alexander said in his latest newsletter businesses facing closure can blame the Reserve Bank's "incompetence to a great degree" during 2021.

"They kept pumping money into the economy and held interest rates too low for too long despite having the largest group of economists in the country who should have seen the economy did not need that sugar any longer."

[Panda-NZ-]

NZ among the most expensive places to rent in the world (OECD):

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...HWF4V7OK673MU/

[Aaron]

NZ among the most expensive places to rent in the world (OECD):

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...HWF4V7OK673MU/

Great news Chris Luxon will be happy, not only can't people join him in the asset owning class thanks to Labour's inflation but now he can get a decent return on his 4 rentals. Good news at last. He is really turning the country around for the better.

On a more RBNZ related issue, I thought I had discovered why we have an inflation target with Don Brash discussing this. Sounds like the main reason is politicians wanting to print money to buy votes so a 1-3% target allows them to push up prices without going too crazy.

Grant Robertson and Adrian Orr may have not got the memo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aOMFME5h3c

No other reason that I can discern. Why not a +/-1% target?

Does anyone know of any studies confirming the benefits of an inflation target?

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/works...-screwed-45749

Interesting article about houses. Apparently we just do not build enough of them. Didn't we use to build state houses? How was that funded? Anyway nothing is going to be done by our politicians so suck it up.

[Aaron]

Thought this might have been a result of the NZ govt focus on the older generation, as our young people leave after getting sick of being screwed over with saving for their own retirement and paying for the boomers national super, student loans, unaffordable houses and housing, competing with the third world in the wage market, lack of social mobility and financial security etc etc. I thought older people might be coming in from around the globe for the good times and comfortable retirement.

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-po...g-nz-residency

Probably not the case, numbers are so small 8,500 pa or so compared with the flood of immigrants this is only a drop in the bucket. Probably just new NZers bringing in the family to enjoy our generous national super and health care or look after the grandkids, who knows?

[kiora]

"To be eligible for NZ Super, you need to be aged 65 or over and be a legal resident of New Zealand. You can get NZ Super even if you’re still working.

Currently you need to have lived here for 10 years since age 20. Starting in July 2024, however, this residency requirement is gradually increasing to 20 years by July 2042.

You'll need to have lived in New Zealand, the Cook Islands, Niue or Tokelau (or a combination of these) for 20 years since age 20, with 5 of those years from age 50 or older.

https://sorted.org.nz/guides/retirem...till%20working.