SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[Baa_Baa]

is

I asked the same question on HotCopper and a poster said “ Still showing as holding 5,109,803 shares or 2.34%”
and that’s my understanding too…
I respect my thoughts and opinions are just that, and I am not in anyway connected to the board or in the know about what’s going on around the SML table…
But let’s consider something, Peno was until very recently, very very connected and was I am sure a part of enough discussions or knowledge even if he was kept on the outer…
This guy is holding a decent parcel of shares…why?
Why hasn’t he sold? This process with SML has been going on for a while, and he has since left SML (or been ousted pretty much) so it would be fair to say he of all people should have sold right? Why would you sit back and take such a huge loss, 5 mil shares…unless he knows something we don’t?

I wouldn't read anything into it except that his shareholding (value) has been absolutely gutted, and it's irrelevant now to him how much of that was his own making. It would make no sense at all to sell out, at cents on the dollar, a massive eyewatering downside when potentially this whole thing has a recovery and he can still, one day, reap the upside. It's probably hobson's choice, hope for an upside by holding, or lose almost everything by selling now.

What would you do in his circumstance, now?

[Newman]

is

I asked the same question on HotCopper and a poster said “ Still showing as holding 5,109,803 shares or 2.34%”
and that’s my understanding too…
I respect my thoughts and opinions are just that, and I am not in anyway connected to the board or in the know about what’s going on around the SML table…
But let’s consider something, Peno was until very recently, very very connected and was I am sure a part of enough discussions or knowledge even if he was kept on the outer…
This guy is holding a decent parcel of shares…why?
Why hasn’t he sold? This process with SML has been going on for a while, and he has since left SML (or been ousted pretty much) so it would be fair to say he of all people should have sold right? Why would you sit back and take such a huge loss, 5 mil shares…unless he knows something we don’t?

If Dr. Peno were really smart, he would have sold some of his shares when the price was over $10, and the Pokeno problem would not have been created.

I think there is no requirement for him to report if his shares were sold, as his shareholding is less than 5%, except for Bright or A2m buying his shares.

Anyway, his 5 m shares would be realized at a good price, for example, when Bright is slightly short of the 90% threshold for a compulsory takeover. There will be no restriction on the price Bright pays for his shares.

[billkiapi]

It could be he has borrowed against the shares- can’t sell em now, the banks will be calling

[Newman]

Panic sellers of SML010 bonds have vanished, and the share price seems stabilized.

[Toddy]

Market stabilised at $63m market cap. So the market still thinks there is some value here. Today, anyway.

[Balance]

Panic sellers of SML010 bonds have vanished, and the share price seems stabilized.

By definition, the majority of bond and fixed interest investors invest for income so capital preservation is paramount. Cannot fault them for selling out to preserve what’s left of their capital. And most of them rely on the advice of brokers/advisors who are dark on the prospects of SML.

[Lego_Man]

By definition, the majority of bond and fixed interest investors invest for income so capital preservation is paramount. Cannot fault them for selling out to preserve what’s left of their capital. And most of them rely on the advice of brokers/advisors who are dark on the prospects of SML.

To be honest, it's the illiquidity prospects that will be spooking advisors rather than return of capital.

In receivership, likely investors will get all money back but it might take 2 years. That = grumpy clients.

[Toddy]

By definition, the majority of bond and fixed interest investors invest for income so capital preservation is paramount. Cannot fault them for selling out to preserve what’s left of their capital. And most of them rely on the advice of brokers/advisors who are dark on the prospects of SML.

And most shareholders would have concluded it's not worth selling anymore and take the long odds of the sp doubling from here when the magic fairy dust comes out. Anyone preserving their capital would be well and truly gone.

Double down, the Blues and Synlait. TAB should be all over this combo.

[Balance]

To be honest, it's the illiquidity prospects that will be spooking advisors rather than return of capital.

In receivership, likely investors will get all money back but it might take 2 years. That = grumpy clients.

2 years or 3 years to get their money back is nothing compared to the 40%+ bath that bond holders had been taking selling out in recent times.

[Bikeguy]

It could be he has borrowed against the shares- can’t sell em now, the banks will be calling

Yes, that’s a fair point, and could very well be the case.

I just can’t help thinking that the guy would be like anyone else, if it was actually as bad as it looks from the outside, and let’s face it he would have some knowledge of the reality, then surely you would sell out?
It doesn’t appear he has…