Black Monday

[Bobdn]

@bull. Bonds being bid up right? Yields going down. My silly old bond heavy funds just reached all time highs this week.

Or maybe that was because of the 2 per cent allocation to NVIDIA in this particular conservative 40/60 fund. A little bit goes a long way.

[nztx]

economy imploding now , bonds cratering to reflect this. market priced in a nov cut going against RBNZ forecast of next yr.

interesting stuff .. firms starting to get shaky & falling over .. at a time when Export is not it's strongest - could be a difficult wee session ahead

How's the local fiat holding up against the foreign coins .. still asleep or just starting to stir ?

bound to be an increasing queue of captive residential owners starting to scream more loudly soon against the approaching ravages

[troyvdh]

I agree bull...it will not be pretty.
As Warren said "you discover who is not wearing togs when the tide goes out".
Thats the kiwi version.

[bull....]

@bull. Bonds being bid up right? My silly old bond heavy funds just reached all time highs this week.

yep been buying bonds myself last yr in the hope of good rates + cap gain

[Bobdn]

Excellent. Hopefully it will work out. If I had cash I'd be tempted myself.

In theory maybe my dividend aristocrats might start working as well. Compare and contrast Kernel Wealth's Global 100 fund vs it's Dividend Aristocrat Fund. I have both but wish I had only one.

[bull....]

Excellent. Hopefully it will work out. If I had cash I'd be tempted myself.

In theory maybe my dividend aristocrats might start working as well. Compare and contrast Kernel Wealth's Global 100 fund vs it's Dividend Aristocrat Fund. I have both but wish I had only one.

your onto it

started slowly building my own div aristocrat fund as well on some beaten up nz stocks on an averaged in approach looking to weight the purchases more at the climax of the economic implosion.

[Bobdn]

Yeah I'm leaving everything as is. They'll start working one day. Maybe.

Just checked. So the 5 year returns (not my returns - Ive been with Kernel for just three years) for the Global 100 fund is 19 per cent per annum and the divided aristocrat fund has returned 5.6 per cent per annum.

19 per cent per annum is a lot. $10,000 compounding at 19 per cent for 50 years is almost $60,000,000.

I'm guessing it won't always be returning 19 per cent.

[bull....]

Yeah I'm leaving everything as is. They'll start working one day. Maybe.

Just checked. So the 5 year returns (not my returns - Ive been with Kernel for just three years) for the Global 100 fund is 19 per cent per annum and the divided aristocrat fund has returned 5.6 per cent per annum.

the div fund might have its time when the momentum fund has a negative yr ( could be a big one if the mag 7 implode )

[Jaa]

It is just AI driving the NASDAQ higher isn't it? Nvidia now worth 3.34T, up 43% in a month and now the most valuable company in the world.

The thing is people are working out it is not real AI, just algebra and therefore derivative. Thus the hallucination problem is built in. Sam Altman has a problem with the truth and has oversold what it can do.

This would be fine, except that AI is very expensive, both to train and to answer queries. Lot of effort now going into more efficient models like GTP4o and caching which need less hardware. Sure the models become a bit less accurate but since you can't rely upon them to be 100% accurate anyway who cares.

Andriy Burkov's twitter makes for interesting reading.

IFT seems to be running into this trap, why would anyone use data centres in Aus/NZ for AI where it costs (way) more to do so?

Pretty near the peak of the bubble IMO.

[Leemsip]

What stonks you looking at bull? For me SKC is the no brainer at the bottom