What are your Investment Rules?

[kiora]

"Five global forces impacting investment decisions"

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...y+14+June+2024

Themes
Megatrends,the big get bigger,avoid predicting the future,infrastucture returns,unhedged,currency exposure, build a concentrated portfolio selecting a handful of stocks and hope it works; or take a passive approach,compounding,

Undecided (Liquidity & volatility risks?)

Private equity and venture capital,cryptocurrency.

[Snoopy]

"Five global forces impacting investment decisions"

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...y+14+June+2024

Themes
Megatrends,the big get bigger,avoid predicting the future,infrastucture returns,unhedged,currency exposure, build a concentrated portfolio selecting a handful of stocks and hope it works; or take a passive approach,compounding,

Undecided (Liquidity & volatility risks?)

Private equity and venture capital,cryptocurrency.

So ASB Bank 's Kiwisaver has gone all in with Blackrock, which is heavily overweight in the 'magnificent 7.'

“The big tech stocks (the Magnificent Seven of Amazon, Alphabet/Google, Apple, Meta/Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) are not getting any cheaper, although we acknowledge there is a wide range of potential future outcomes and these companies are hard to value."

“We are considering a modest trimming of these mega cap stocks from current allocations."

So ASB admits they are just index following in the USA, and don't understand how to value the magnificent 7 which has driven the out-performance of their portfolio this year to date. But now they are only going to modestly trim these positions, because they don't want to deviate too far from the index. How pathetic.

They claim to be on the global bandwagon of AI, and are set to benefit. Well I have a suggestion for them. Sack the entire investment team and replace it with an AI bot!

SNOOPY

[kiora]

Got to go with the crowd !
Sad isn't it when they can't think independantly

Warning bells!

[kiora]

https://moontowermeta.com/david-senr...like-the-best/

[kiora]

https://moontowermeta.com/david-senr...like-the-best/

"David Senra on Invest Like The Best"

"When he studied Warren Buffet, he recalled that Buffet said, “One of the best things ever happened to me is I picked the right heroes.”"
"Originality and ego
To be an investor, to be an entrepreneur, it doesn’t work if you can’t trust your own judgment"
But Edwin Land said that there’s no such thing as group originality or group creativity. He goes, “I do believe wholeheartedly in the individual capacity for greatness.” And he says, “Originality are attributes of a single mind, not a group.”
I actually don’t think that you build a great company without a giant ego. I don’t think that exists. Sam Walton has a good idea about that. He’s like, “Listen, your ego should use to drive you, but you should not be on public display.” And he’s like, “I hire people at Walmart with big egos, that know how to hide it, because there is some weird thing where it drives you.”'
"Obsession and endurance
“If anything is worth doing, it’s worth doing to excess” – Edwin Land, Inventor
"“By endurance, we conquer.”
"The best description of a business I ever heard came from Richard Branson. He’s like, “All businesses, it’s an idea or service that make somebody else’s life better. If you make other people’s life better, you’ll capture that value in return.”
"I’m not a fan of moderation. I’m attracted to extremes."
"The culture of a company as a reflection of the founder"

"It’s impossible to build a company, to spend all your life energy on it, and not have it imbibed with your personality, with your ethics. Everything that you think about your business and your life is going to seep into it. The good and the bad parts."
"“I think a culture of a company should be like 80 or 90% just the personality of the founder. That’s it. It should be the extreme characteristics of the personality of the founder. Because if you try to make it generic, nothing stands out and there’s no progress and inertia dominates.“"
"Process as art (and marketing)"

"The most recurring theme in Founders stories"
"“excellence is the capacity to take pain.”…Anybody that’s ever done anything difficult, whether it’s a company, anything, knows the euphoria and terror. It’s the entrepreneurial emotional rollercoaster."
"Dyson made over 5,000 prototypes in 14 years before landing on the bagless vacuum that made him a household name"
"I don’t give a ****, David, how you feel. How you feel is irrelevant. That’s an idea I got from Henry Ford. You read his autobiography, he goes, “I feel sorry for these soft and flabby men that can only do great work when they feel like it.” Essentially, Henry Ford is saying “**** your feelings.” Henry Ford’s point was a business exists to serve other people"
"There are going to be days when you don’t want to go to work, and that is irrelevant because the business is not about you. The business does not exist for your pleasure. The business exists to serve other people."

“Many people can run a company but not many can create one”

[kiora]

I'am of the camp that for any investment, compounding returns are far more important than dividends

"40 Things Every Dividend Investor Should Know About Dividend Investing"

https://www.dividend.com/dividend-ed...r-should-know/

[kiora]

"'Diversification? That's For Idiots' Mark Cuban Slams Warren Buffett's Investment Strategy: 'I Think Buy And Hold Is A Crock' — Who's Right?"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diver...154511287.html

Ouch,to qualify that..

"Warren Buffett, who advocates for diversification to mitigate risk and ensure steady returns."
"Cuban discussing market volatility. When asked about his perspective as an entrepreneur and investor, Cuban dismissed the traditional "buy and hold" strategy, saying, "I think buy and hold is a crock of s***." He explained that the approach popularized by Buffett does not suit most individual investors.

Cuban elaborated on his skepticism toward always investing cash. "The idea that you always have to invest your cash is not far behind," he said, emphasizing the importance of maintaining liquidity. "I've always been of the attitude that unless you really have a commitment to something, just keep your money in cash."

He criticized the disparity between professional traders and individual investors, noting the advantages held by large hedge funds. "There really aren't any advantages for the individual traders," Cuban said, highlighting the sophisticated research capabilities of professional trading firms compared to personal investors.

Contrary to the widely accepted principle of diversification, Cuban provocatively claimed, "Diversification, that's for idiots." He argued that spreading investments across different assets is ineffective without specific market knowledge. Instead, Cuban advocates for concentrated bets based on thorough research.

Cuban also critiqued Buffett's methods. He noted that Buffett's significant capital allows for a different investment approach than what is feasible for the average investor. "The whole Warren Buffett approach works great for Warren because he can put three billion dollars into an investment," Cuban said. This statement underscores Cuban's belief that Buffett's strategies do not apply to smaller investors.
He also emphasized the value of cash in managing personal finances and preparing for market opportunities.

"People aren't buying intrinsic value in companies anymore," Cuban stated, highlighting the shift in market dynamics away from fundamental value investing. He pointed out that Buffett's approach relies on the ability to make large, strategic investments, a luxury not available to most people.

Buffett is widely regarded as one of the most successful investors ever, known for his long-term, value-oriented investment strategy. He once famously said, "[B]Diversification is a protection against ignorance.[/B]"

In contrast, Mark Cuban, a star of "Shark Tank" and a seasoned business owner, takes a more opportunistic and cash-heavy approach. Whose advice do you trust?"

[kiora]

S&P 500 YEAR-END FORECASTS FOR 2024

If these are the Investment Firms forecasts & they base their strategies on their forecasts,a lot of them will be wrong & few will be right?
Volatility will be back in?


"Investors can't afford to miss the AI rally"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inves...100014639.html

"Investors caught flat-footed in a rally fueled by the unexpected mania for chatbots, cloud storage, and massive amounts of computing power had some leeway to explain to clients why they hadn't foreseen the Nasdaq gaining 40%.

In June 2024, those excuses have worn thin."

[kiora]

Who has a reliable crystal ball when looking at Mercer’s downloadable 2023 Periodic Table ?
Not many,so why try if most are wrong?

"Against all odds? Investment markets punch out strong returns amid share market bounce


2023 was a remarkable year for investment markets. Mercer’s 2023 Periodic Table shows a bounce back of 11 out of 16 asset classes into the positives and a notable percentage increase on most asset class returns compared to the previous year."

"The myriad returns generated by markets over time underscores the challenge of discerning patterns and forecasting what may eventuate in the periods ahead."

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...y+19+June+2024

[kiora]

"The founders of Guzman Y Gomez, Wisetech, and Seek share the secrets to success"

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...THE%20INSIGHTS

"Once upon a time, the world’s biggest brands were start-ups"
"The founder mentality
To start with, there’s a difference between simply being a founder and having a ‘founder mindset’.

“There’s that drive, there’s that growth foundation, but actually, the most important thing is, what do they put first?” says Bassat.
He highlights the ability to make decisions that are right for the long-term needs of the business – even if the decision may seem wrong in the short term"
" founders also need to be obsessed with the details, the company, and its industry"


So what are the markers of success?

The founder mentality
To start with, there’s a difference between simply being a founder and having a ‘founder mindset’.

“There’s that drive, there’s that growth foundation, but actually, the most important thing is, what do they put first?” says Bassat.
He highlights the ability to make decisions that are right for the long-term needs of the business – even if the decision may seem wrong in the short term. Bassat's Square Peg has backed some real winners in the past including Zeller, Airwallex, and publicly-listed Rokt (NYSE: ROKT).

White added that founders also need to be obsessed with the details, the company, and its industry. It’s a philosophy that has carried him through every time that Wisetech has assessed a potential acquisition target.

Wisetech's Richard White, Guzman Y Gomez's Steven Marks and Seek/Square Peg's Paul Bassett
When the founder’s mindset extends to the team
Following this, humility and self-awareness are critical.

“If you think you’re good at everything and think you can scale and continue to do everything, and not change the way you work, the business won’t scale,” says Bassat.

That is, founders should be prepared to surround themselves with people who complement their skill sets."
"While different skill sets are important, shared values remain critical.

“You develop your team internally, then you bring other people in, but unless they share the same values you can't create value,” says Marks.
White notes that he aligns values within Wisetech by using share-based compensation for 95% of his workforce in their base salary rather than a bonus.

The aligned interests and ownership means “it’s relatively easy to steer the business and adjust the business, and keep it focused on where the growth is coming from and going to come from next,” says White."
"Solving problems and asking big questions
Of course, the culture is one thing – success also depends on the business itself – the product or service it is offering.

Each founder agrees that the business needs to answer a problem or question in a unique way. Bassat points out it is a skill in itself to keep working out what the “right questions” are to build and evolve your business and support your client base.

This also means watching changes in the industry and constantly working to do and be better"
"“Better is always different – though different is not always better. You should be different by design with the intention to be better,” says White.
“You have to find your differentiator in all the layers of the business, not just in the product, not just in sales,” he adds."

"Pricing IPOs
Here’s where it all gets trickier. How do you know if a company about to IPO is correctly valued?

“Great businesses are always expensive,”"
"investors focus on two particular characteristics:

Profitable unit economics – and look at the real MOAT and differentiation.
If the company has a large addressable market, it makes sense that it should invest in it to generate further growth."