OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ValueNZ]

Well that’s nice to read, Mav. I bought some more yesterday to add to my ever growing pile. Thought $1.52 was reasonable buying

Sheesh OCA taking a hammering. I've been buying the dip as they say you should do.. however the dip keeps dipping!

I see it back at $1.60 soon

I bought the dip. But then it kept dipping. Now 10% of my portfolio and yes a lot of uncertainty.

But only weak hands would sell now..

Only weak hands would sell now eh Rawz?

More than willing to own at $1.60 in 2021, but not at 52c. Rawz, please do not try to give me any further advice. Your idiocy will make me want to slam my head against the wall.

Cheers.

[Balance]

What would you suggest a "holder" does, under the circumstances. Not advice, just a suggestion. Should they book a modest to enormous loss (as people assume all holders have) and hopeful of a buy-back even lower than 0.53? Or maybe book the loss and move on, to what? Or hold and suffer the ignominy of further losses, but miss any turn around? Or something else?

Presumably anyone putting money into any stock does so with specific views in mind of what are the value drivers of the stock - ie. macro and micro factors.

As the macro and micro factors unfold, the market will respond (properly or improperly) accordingly.

To me, one must then assess the developments against one’s own value drivers.

Then, act appropriately - be it but, sell or hold.

The market can be wrong - that’s a fact and some of the best gains I have ever made had been when the market was wrong - eg. Serko at 29c. Most of the times, the market is right - eg. Hanging onto ATM and only bailing out when 50% of the gains had been pared back.

The key is to assess the stock continuously against one’s value drivers.

So in the case of OCA, I bailed out the stock I bought during the 30m+ index selldown when the results announced was much much worse than expected. My value driver was a good result or one in line with market expectations.

Look back at how OCA has disappointed from one result to another, year after year and how the macro environment has worsen but holders kept holding.

Is it too late to bail out?

Really it is up to each holder to judge against their value drivers. If they think that their value drivers are intact, by all means hold!

[Rawz]

Only weak hands would sell now eh Rawz?

More than willing to own at $1.60 in 2021, but not at 52c. Rawz, please do not try to give me any further advice. Your idiocy will make me want to slam my head against the wall.

Cheers.

There is not a lot of point looking back at my old posts as I did not really understand investing back then.

All I can say is I made my fair share of mistakes and had my fair share of wins.

Started in 2020 and only feel like I have found a strategy that works for me in these last 12 months.

No need for you to slam your head against a wall pal.

[Toddy]

Is it too late to bail. If I held them now I would just keep them in the bottom drawer and bank the experience. There is limited downside.
OCA will fly at some stage. Just like during the GFC, people still got older. Then as soon as the confidence returned to the property market people moved. Demand exceeded supply.

This time will be no different. The only time you trip yourself up is if you need to liquidate your share investment.

[Rawz]

How do you feel about Apple Computers (little company in the US you may not have heard of) super scary leverage %?

Write us an essay about it.

They have utilized their balance sheet to invest, buyback huge amounts of stock and pay dividends. Good stuff.

And essentially that is a one off as eventually the bankers/bond holders say no more.

This is what I’m saying with OCA. Will the bankers give them another $600m to build a village (asset)? No. So once you’ve used up that leverage ratio it’s no more. So you can’t grow your assets as quick as you historically did.

[blackcap]

ValueNZ, super valuable time spent scrolling through the 2021 OCA thread, that alone will probably do more for you than your first year at uni, though it wont teach you your white privilege you colonising $astard.

Are you for real?

[winner69]

Hey rawz …wonder if we will need to trawl through some of the current posts in 2028 when OCA share price is 50 cents ……we would be reminded that few kept on telling us that OCA is a great ‘bet’..like one of those can’t lose/fail investments


we should Reply with Quote some of their posts in case they get deleted lol

[Rawz]

Hey rawz …wonder if we will need to trawl through some of the current posts in 2028 when OCA share price is 50 cents ……we would be reminded that few kept on telling us that OCA is a great ‘bet’..like one of those can’t lose/fail investments


we should Reply with Quote some of their posts in case they get deleted lol

We don't need to stoop to those levels..

You know when you are getting overly aggressive posts by holders of a stock that its a warning sign. Didnt Phaedrus have a good post on that way back?

[Rawz]

The last sentence I agree with.

Glad you understand the importance relative to OCA. Forget about Apple.

Now this is one of the most important paragraphs you will ever read in your life... You 'only feel like I have found a strategy that works for me in these last 12 months'. Now you feel like this because some stocks you have bought have gone way up in price.... This is not a reason for you to feel like your 'strategy' is working for you. You'd need to have success against the market for a full couple of cycles to know that, at least 15 years. So without that time having passed the only other way you can know is that you have the correct process irrespective of the outcome.

My strategy is time tested. Its just value investing with a big focus on margin of safety. Nothing new about it.

[ValueNZ]

My strategy is time tested. Its just value investing with a big focus on margin of safety. Nothing new about it.

Yesterday you said this.

I like to invest in businesses in a good news up cycle which basically means the company announcements are positive. Examples are expansion, market share gains, profit upgrades etc.

Now imagine having a conversation with Benjamin Graham, Buffett, Li Lu, or any other successful value investor, and telling them you invest in businesses in a "good news up cycle".

Can you imagine the look on their faces... I can.