OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Cupsy]

As I said previously there are many ways of dicing the accounts to get a better view of reality, all have their limitations and approximations but in comparison to recent years both 'true underlying' operational cashflow and 'true underlying' operational profit are significantly less.

The fact that both figures are off is not good

Risk, any downturn in regional or national market conditions are listed as a property market risk.

[Daytr]

As I said previously there are many ways of dicing the accounts to get a better view of reality, all have their limitations and approximations but in comparison to recent years both 'true underlying' operational cashflow and 'true underlying' operational profit are significantly less.

The fact that both figures are off is not good.

Well summarized.
It's something I have been banging on about, probably far too much.

[Baa_Baa]

As I said previously there are many ways of dicing the accounts to get a better view of reality, all have their limitations and approximations but in comparison to recent years both 'true underlying' operational cashflow and 'true underlying' operational profit are significantly less.

The fact that both figures are off is not good.

Can you show us what you include in your calcs of 'true underlying' operational cashflow and 'true underlying' operational profit?

[ValueNZ]

Reading this thread in early 2021 is interesting. Euphoria, everyone getting rich, can't have enough, etc.

Compare that to todays thread. Everyone is skeptical, claims of unprofitability that fly in the face of the FS, too much debt.

The forward return from here will be way higher than in 2021, the time to be euphoric and load up is now.

[ValueNZ]

If you were holding in Feb 2021 @ $1.60 or close to it, and thought you would get a 10% CAGR from there in 10 years that'd be a share price of $4.15.

Had you bought two years later @ $0.90 and thought nothing significantly changed in your thesis, in 8 years the share price would be $4.15, well that'd be a CAGR of 21%.

If you bought your shareholding today @ $0.54, still believing nothing significantly changed in your thesis, in 6.5 years, well that'd be a CAGR of 37%.

I kid you not.

[SailorRob]

Reading this thread in early 2021 is interesting. Euphoria, everyone getting rich, can't have enough, etc.

Compare that to todays thread. Everyone is skeptical, claims of unprofitability that fly in the face of the FS, too much debt.

The forward return from here will be way higher than in 2021, the time to be euphoric and load up is now.

If possible can you repost euphoric posts from 2021 from today's biggest fear mongers?

[Rawz]

If you were holding in Feb 2021 @ $1.60 or close to it, and thought you would get a 10% CAGR from there in 10 years that'd be a share price of $4.15.

Had you bought two years later @ $0.90 and thought nothing significantly changed in your thesis, in 8 years the share price would be $4.15, well that'd be a CAGR of 21%.

If you bought your shareholding today @ $0.54, still believing nothing significantly changed in your thesis, in 6.5 years, well that'd be a CAGR of 37%.

I kid you not.

This is why we keep telling you it’s better to buy when the SP is low

[winner69]

Reading this thread in early 2021 is interesting. Euphoria, everyone getting rich, can't have enough, etc.

Compare that to todays thread. Everyone is skeptical, claims of unprofitability that fly in the face of the FS, too much debt.

The forward return from here will be way higher than in 2021, the time to be euphoric and load up is now.

I posted this bit of advice from an investing guru (can’t remember who) back in 2021 - “When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.”

[ValueNZ]

If possible can you repost euphoric posts from 2021 from today's biggest fear mongers?

These are just a few I've found, I'm sure there's others. Beagle holds the position that OCA is a bad investment at 55c on the other channel btw.

So back on topic

With a booming property market (even the RBNZ wants it to keep going up) and low interest rates and with Oceania's plans coming to fruition the future is bright

For believers in relativity theory OCA share price at least $2.40 next year

YOU CAN'T HAVE TOO MANY OCA

And then we will able say ‘we’ll never see $1.50 again’

OCA - the share you can’t have too many of (unless one has self imposed portfolio weighting limits)

I am comfortable one year hence from here at 18 times forward earnings = 18 x 10.3 cps = $1.85 updated target price early 2022. Over time as they prove their growth rate I expect that multiple will expand to about 20 times as they prove over a number of years they can grow eps at a CAGR of something like 15%. We could see eps of 20 cps in FY26 and the market pricing the company on a forward basis in late 2025 at 20 times that number = ~ $4.
As I said earlier, the real money will be made by those with the patience to hold this for at least 5 years which is what I intend to do.

If we see strong and reliable growth in OCA's eps in the years ahead, (one broker has FY26 estimated at 19 cps) we could see a PE in the mid 20's applied to that multiple and given the market is always forward looking that opens up the prospect of 25 times 19 cents ($4.75) being recognized as early as 2025.

Still trades at a discount to what I consider fair value but not cheap enough for me to buy more. It is currently my #3 holding on the NZX

Fundamentally I value it at $1.68 right here, right now, with a modest $1.71 for a year hence.

[winner69]

Deleted ..thought better of it