Black Monday

[Daytr]

Anecdotal evidence isn't sways useful and no the economy isn't running hotter than hell. Quite the opposite and things are going to get a lot tougher which may see interest rates come down sooner than forecast imo.

It's true housing is picking up but that's after a 10 - 20% fall in price depending on what region you are in & the floodgates on immigration reopening. Private building however has collapsed due to the costs and supply chain issues following Covid. I suspect the Auckland townhouse / apartment market may have still more room to fall as those is where most of the supply has come in.

I am a member of a nationwide networking group and the reports on the business activity out of Auckland have been dire for months.

Now regional NZ is about to be hit by low dairy prices, kiwifruit isn't what it was, weather impacted production in Hawkes Bay etc

Still around half of mortgage holders are yet to roll onto the new interest rates which will suck a massive amount out of the economy.

Speaking of boats, I have seen plenty of one's with big price cuts and going cheap of late, so SailorRob you did well and if you had hung on to it for another 6 months or so I suspect it would have been different.

So in my view things are going to get tougher before they get better but the housing market might be on the outer as it shows slow improvement.

[clip]

It's true housing is picking up but that's after a 10 - 20% fall in price depending on what region you are in & the floodgates on immigration reopening. Private building however has collapsed due to the costs and supply chain issues following Covid. I suspect the Auckland townhouse / apartment market may have still more room to fall as those is where most of the supply has come in.

Don't think so, auckland CBD apartments are easier to find tenants to rent to, and getting higher rental prices than over the last 2 years with return of migration and students. Town houses maybe but apartments have been hit hard and are picking up

[SailorRob]

Anecdotal evidence isn't sways useful and no the economy isn't running hotter than hell. Quite the opposite and things are going to get a lot tougher which may see interest rates come down sooner than forecast imo.

It's true housing is picking up but that's after a 10 - 20% fall in price depending on what region you are in & the floodgates on immigration reopening. Private building however has collapsed due to the costs and supply chain issues following Covid. I suspect the Auckland townhouse / apartment market may have still more room to fall as those is where most of the supply has come in.

I am a member of a nationwide networking group and the reports on the business activity out of Auckland have been dire for months.

Now regional NZ is about to be hit by low dairy prices, kiwifruit isn't what it was, weather impacted production in Hawkes Bay etc

Still around half of mortgage holders are yet to roll onto the new interest rates which will suck a massive amount out of the economy.

Speaking of boats, I have seen plenty of one's with big price cuts and going cheap of late, so SailorRob you did well and if you had hung on to it for another 6 months or so I suspect it would have been different.

So in my view things are going to get tougher before they get better but the housing market might be on the outer as it shows slow improvement.

Not anecdotal.

Investment and consumption spending is fact.

Provide details of your most recent 25 calls on the economic future.

If you can call it, you're rich list.

You might be right who knows.

Of the three parties that missed out on boat, one crying on phone, one trying go me on contract breach, other just 'gutted'

[SailorRob]

Hey SR what kind of property is it?

Residential waterfront.

[Daytr]

Not anecdotal.

Investment and consumption spending is fact.

Provide details of your most recent 25 calls on the economic future.

If you can call it, you're rich list.

You might be right who knows.

Of the three parties that missed out on boat, one crying on phone, one trying go me on contract breach, other just 'gutted'

Such an A-typical response from you.
You maybe surprised that I am not at your beck and call.
You are comparing consumption to GDP in an inflationary & recessionary environment. Can't you see what this indicates?

Many younger people say under 35 - 40 have never experienced a recession, so it will be interesting to see if there is overconfidence in the economy.

I will give you one of my latest calls and that was stocks were expensive & I have been shorting the US stock indices.
I also went long gold & picked up more over the same time, however that is down as the USD has rallied, but not nearly as much as US equities. And I will now hold unless it breaks down.

I also converted all my super to cash about 8 months ago which has proven to be by far the right move.

So like all of us we get it wrong, we get it right.
I have made big calls for a living and published those views daily to a wide audience. I don't think it's a big call to say the economy is NOT running hot. It's obvious to anyone who has a clue.

[bull....]

nz market tanking , orr just on bloomberg saying might not cut rates even when nz goes into recession

add in china big shadow bank near collapse , protests on china streets apparently now

[Azz]

Big bets by Burry. Look at the Puts.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...ationtable.xml

[Daytr]

Don't think so, auckland CBD apartments are easier to find tenants to rent to, and getting higher rental prices than over the last 2 years with return of migration and students. Town houses maybe but apartments have been hit hard and are picking up

Interesting, I hadn't heard that. I have a few mates looking at buying apartments and they think it's still very soft.

I can understand the rental market being strong as most of the 100k of immigrants can't buy for at least a year and I imagine there has been a return of international students over time.

[bull....]

Big bets by Burry. Look at the Puts.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...ationtable.xml

he's betting on a crash , also worth noting buffett sold more of his stock holdings than he brought last quarter too ..... increasing his cash pile

[Azz]

he's betting on a crash , also worth noting buffett sold more of his stock holdings than he brought last quarter too ..... increasing his cash pile

He doesn't say much, Burry, but he Puts his money where his mouth is.