Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
Hi
Its been a while since I last visited ST forum...I've only just now seen your post..
Obviously time has answered some of your questions.
I think at this stage the question has to be asked if this is a sucker rally or is it the real thing?
We don't really know the answer until it happens. We can guess or predict with models and be optimistic with these better looking fundamentals, yet the Buffett indicator shows Wall St (the elephant in the room) as still overvalued. Other variables can come into play and be problematic, such as America poking the stick up the dragons bum one to many times....

Anyway back to TA.

The Chart below shows this rally reaching an conjuntion area with primary elements in play..From a Chartist point of view this is very exciting.. Looking back through history Conjunction points have nearly always been seen as big turning events, so I'm watching this one with great interest.
To break through a conjunction area requires great buying pressure so watch out for the signs of positive sentiment with increased market activity.
This current NZX50 conjunction contain primary elements suggests if a breakthrough occurs it would be a Market Cycle reversal and the NZX50's status would change to Bull.
With the change to Bull an investor can change from rowing to sailing investment strategy with less risk/ more reward such as buy and hold strategy.

But for now, take care as we ain't quite there yet...

Thanks Hoop ...U have shown now what exactly needs happen to change status ...ie two close over 4800 ...though u also appreciate that this rally managed to cross two initial resistance so has strength

But I feel this 4800 may be not crossed in this attempt and market may pull back to 4500-4600 to gather strength ...

Lets c what happens ...but markets always surprise most and reward few ...at this moment most are bearish so I think it will surprise on upside eventually ...maybe after pulling back first