How about we think positive for a change,what benefits can we expect from the virus.I would suggest that in 9 months time we will see a baby boom.Which should be a boost to the dairy industry.
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How about we think positive for a change,what benefits can we expect from the virus.I would suggest that in 9 months time we will see a baby boom.Which should be a boost to the dairy industry.
Onya steveb.
Crises bring out the best and worst in people. I have seen that in people I know and different posters on this forum. I have certainly gained greater insight through this.
What will be a financial disaster for some will be a positive for others. There is no getting away from that. Many who are seeing their portfolio shrink day by day may well be in a position to regain it on the way back up. It's just hard to look ahead when you are swimming in mud.
These times may also give some an entry to the property ladder that they thought was beyond them. If you keep your job (and most will) there will be opportunities for people. Sadly at other's loss. That said, many have been sitting on a paper profit on their houses anyway. As long as they are not heavily leveraged they will be fine in the long run too.
….. oops a bit harsh
Hopefully a huge benefit to the environment. Apparently already seeing changes for the good, in water ways and air pollution. Be interesting to know if anyone is doing studies on all these things, esp things like how the higher atmosphere is changing with the reduction in aeroplanes up there.
I think this will be the shortest thread on this forum for a long time.
The depreciation of the New Zealand dollar should benefit the hard working New Zealand Farmers and Rural communities.
Lol nice one BF.......but all joking aside I too believe and hope our environment/planet will benefit from this "breather" that has been thrust upon us. Maybe, just maybe Mother Nature is retaliating in the only way she knows by sending out The Invisible Enemy (to use the Chumps term) in an effort to give the planet a much needed break from the commercial rape piliging and general environmental destruction that we humans must take ownership of. Sermon ends.
Climate change
Pension problem will be solved for a while
Housing problem will be solved
Undertakers will be busy
Crematoriums will keep us warm in winter
- As suggested, good breather for the environment
- Good way to accumulate shares for people who apply even rudimentary TA to their investing
- Weak companies will die off, stronger companies will take their market share WHEN the economy returns - picking those ones up will be the go
- Strong companies will eventually benefit from cheap credit for expansion
- Eventual flight to safe non-cyclical companies like utilities
- Improved housing affordability (I would assume)
Petrols come down a shade which should pass some spending money back to family budgets and allow people to expand their search radius as they seek new employment (lower cost of commuting.) Also there is now the opportunity for infrastructure to catch up with economic growth as hiring is likely to be as easy as it gets over the next few months.
There is the matter of those of us that have been sitting on cash being able to deploy it. I've been too chicken so far. :)
It will prove to all those that think JA walks on water that a cuddle,a frown and a swish of the hair can't cure everthing.
Also just heard someone on the train talking about how they got a good parking spot for the first time ever.
I think some companies will change how they work, and will run more efficiently. It will give some companies to clean out inefficient process and really think about what are essentials. Simple things like how and when to run meetings, learn to plan ahead, focus and mitigate risks. Low performers will be the first one to go.
Yep she’s a flake
Her helpers are too.
She and Robertson fudged the truth on net debt in both their tears jerking retorec on Tuesday
We can expect more of the same .
The damage this lots policies will cause will surpass WW2
And leave NZ as a very very indebted nation.
Be kind....? Be fkd
Be real
At some stage, I'm guessing the world's superannuation funds are going to need to switch to net buyers of shares and sellers of bonds. This could bounce share prices very rapidly as it will mean super funds may end up trying to owning a higher percentage of corporates shares than before the selloff.
If the world's public jump back to balanced funds, that's going to super-charge this effect. Hopefully I'm right as I'm still long shares.
Lets assume a super fund had a portfolio of $200 has a target of 50/50 bonds to shares. For simplicity lets assume the bonds don't change in value and the shares fall in value by 40%. The portfolio is now $100 bonds & $60 shares. To rebalance to 50/50 you need to sell $20 of bonds buy $20 of shares so that $80 of both are held. As the value reduction in shares occurred through price, but the value increase occurs by buying shares, the net impact is super funds buying shares and increasing their ownership of companies.
So while super funds may be selling shares as some people shift to conservative/cash positions, at some point this flips and they start selling bonds and buying shares. Bulk selling of bonds would increase their yields. The chart below (which I'm assuming is reliable data) says that between the 5th of March and 16th March the AA ranked US bond yields have gone from a low of 1.68% to 2.70%. It could be the effect above that's doing this.
Then again it could be that no-one is trusting S&P etc ratings and are effectively down-grading them before any official rating change.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_co...ffective_yield
The question I'd love any current/past fund manager insights into is how far they can depart from their desired portfolio weightings and how long their mandates allow them to how this away from desired weighting for.
Seriously, you all sound like Matthius from the film The Omega Man. New world order, without using technology bull****.
All sectors of the community are going to be affected badly. Not many are going to come out of this unscathed.
Green Cross Health
telcos
Blis
Pre-prepared food box home deliveries
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/business/...lth-businesses
No more national obsession with rugby
Uncrowded walkways
Strangers not wanting to strike up conversation
People respecting your personal space
Entertainment value in watching everyone panic
News not as boring
Great to be able to see a truly historic event unfold in real time
Agraphobics no longer feel disadvantaged
HLG will celebrate it's 148 birthday next year, A2 will continue to smash it out of the ball park and PAZ the dark horse unlisted stock will come out of the dark onto the main board, only 3 stocks I own and I remain positive despite the pussycat virus. PS-Hoping the ski season will go ahead as normal.
In a sea of toxic posting you remain a breath of fresh air.
You are thankfully not alone,as I received this last night.
"we believe this reality is being over-discounted into some share prices with many interesting companies trading down 50-70% or more. A bad year or two will definitely impair value, but some of the price declines – we believe – are unjustified and leave us enthused for our opportunity set."
Well, I bought back yesterday a share at 40% of what I sold out just under 2 months.
Reminds me of the GFC.
Of days like these are millionaires made.
Woke up this morning feeling incredibly positive. We have a brave PM close the border to allow the country to be able to manage and control this virus. We have enough food to feed us, cargo flights can still proceed so that we get the medicines we may need and we have a world class health system that everyone can access regardless of wealth.
I feel like I live in the luckiest country in the world :)
We could well be in for a rash of rights issues:-
AIA
AIR
SKC
SKT
Possibly rest home operators,and of course NTL as they are experts at rights issues and would not want to miss out!
Warren buffet started to buy stocks yesterday.....
Let talk about positive...because...if we stay positive...then everything will be positive
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...084803189.html
Ski season's going ahead & just imagine, for the first time in decades there won't be massive queues for the lifts etc. plus plenty of car parking in the upper car parks.
If we go into lockdown crime will be a thing of the past.The police could also have a bumper season as they could pour more resources into cold cases.
No internal travel...
In the future, people may have to be vaccinated (covid-19, measles, mumps etc) if they want to travel internationally.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/heal...id=app-android
We are experiencing Industrial Revolution 4. IR's are system disrupters
IR4 is being tempered by very powerful "old school" business groups.
Covid lockdowns could be the catalyst for another leap up in the continuing communication revolution and an overdue push forward for a Biotech revolution.
Expect new things (some appearing suddenly which we haven't thought of yet) to emerge to help us increase our standard of living and the make businesses much more efficient.
This is neither a positive or a negative but I've been thinking that hotdesking in businesses, which has been all the rage for some years now, along with shared workspaces to some extent are now going to have to be rethought. The best advice on social distancing in the workplace is to either work from home or for everyone to have well-spaced working areas that are for them alone. Otherwise, unless you are sanitising stations between workdays/shifts very expertly, you run the risk of spreading a contagion right through a workforce.
Working from home will definitely become more acceptable.
I wonder if a newfound interest (perhaps out of necessity) for fixing things and "making do" will be a positive consequence of this crisis.
For reference, I am one of those dreaded millennials, and in the past have definitely been guilty of buying something new when I could have fixed what I already had.
The webcam on my laptop broke recently (great when you're trying to video conference from home) and I'm out of warranty. In the past I probably would have gone and bought a new laptop and justified it because I "need it for work". However, I remembered I had an old webcam with a broken stand. With help from dad managed to get it mounted on a tripod (which I already had) instead and working perfectly.
Yes, these baby boomers have their uses!Quote:
With help from dad managed to get it mounted on a tripod (which I already had) instead and working perfectly.
:)
Working from home will be the norm.
All companies in the finance related services (insurance, mortgage advisors, accountancy, etc etc) will have staff working from home. Minimal office space for meetings (including meeting clients). Most meetings including client meetings will be on Skype or similar. Even factories will have their admin staff (accounting, HR, etc) working mainly from home with small shared office space at the site for rare occasions.
That will reduce travelling time, and people will have more time to be with family and friends, to learn or otherwise improve/enrich themselves.
Better for the environment with less emission, less traffic jams (again more productive use of time) - less need for fossil fuel, or for electricity. Reduce wear and tear of cars, lower import costs.
Free up need for office space. More for housing.
Home delivery services - food, groceries and e-commerce will flourish as people can be at home to receive parcels. Deliveries also easier as less traffic on road.
The future will be bright! :t_up:
Assuming this goes full 1929 and people get financially devastated, it will help future generations to remember to live within their means and not take on unimaginable debt. People have all but forgotten the lessons of our grandparents and the stories of extreme financial hardships not just during the depression but at many other times during our great nation's development.
It will also help future generations of Sharetraders to never make big one ways bets; to always keep 3-5 years of cash on hand for living expenses or 15 to 25 per cent of one's portfolio, whatever works; to have 5 to 10 per cent of their portfolio in gold.
It gives me a good excuse to go shopping....trying to use up all my airpoints at Mitre 10 in case Air NZ goes bankrupt or nationalised. So far have painted my fence, bought a BBQ, two vegepods with airpoint dollars.
Not sure it's positive, but i wonder if this could cause stagflation. High demand, lower supply for goods, with a general recessionary effect going on, leads to flat or lower salaries.
Might be good for some manufacturers in the short term, but bad in the long term.
I think if working from home becomes the norm, working hours will increase. I say this because most people think you're not working if you're working from home. Bad employers will use this to crack the whip, and employees generally will have a fear of this perception, especially if the culture is defined through a period of recession in which people are frightened of losing their jobs.
A big positive for the central banks is that they will be able to cover up one of the biggest frauds in history.
One place that has been extremely buoyant of late is right here at the sharetrader forums. Things are happening so fast that I can barely keep up with every relevant post. This is my first comment, but I've been visiting these boards for a long time, and I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of you for your contributions, whether positive, negative or somewhere in between. The collective wisdom and insight that has been so generously given on this site has helped me to form a greater realisation of the market "truth" and to inform my next moves. I think it puts everyone in this community (who is willing to open themselves to all advice) at the front of the curve and that has to be a positive thing. Once again, sincerely, thank you.
Oh, and apparently the warehouse has sold out of jigsaw puzzles...
Value investors and value funds will look for quality businesses that they can buy at a significant discount to fair value globally. As value investor Shelby Davis observed: “You make most of your money in a bear market”
Positive for jehovah's witness.So many people at home to visit
Road toll should come down,fire service should have fewer call outs,hence insurance companies should make more money as they are not going to pay out on corona virus related claims.Time to look at Tower,s share price?
Learning new skills, possible future new business opportunities!
Yesterday the dog groomers cancelled our v shaggy dogs appointment & now closed possibly for months. What to do?
Had to race out & buy some $180 grooming shears & attempt to learn (via You Tube) how to be a dog groomer ha!
Hair dressing may be next! :laugh:
A lot of people will learn how to cook and come out the other side that much better for it. A lot of people will find out that a home cooked meal can be just as nice as a bought one. :)
True. A lot of people will learn as well that they save a lot of money if one of the bread earners stays at home and cooks (potentially even home grown food) and looks after the kids. Children might learn how to clean and cook again (taught by the parents) - we might turn into a better society after that event.
We just need to change our accounting system. An at home dad or mum don't count for the stats.
Thankfully that powers that be are not closing the markets (unless you're in Phillipines). !
We might end up like Bernard in Black Books...so desperate for distraction that we'd love to have them in^^ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6TeDM-wlZ4
Wonder if people will get bored at home, including institutions that they start buying everything - lol
https://www.ft.com/content/92f21e80-...a-62351200038b
Making a case for ‘Corona bonds’
perhaps we should start a new thread to swap recipes.(preferably ones that take a while to prepare)
At the NZX is remaining open for us all to do some gambling / punting
Bored stay at homers could head of to sharesies ...I’m told that’s quite good fun.
I don't know if a positive effect, but would think there will start to be more "sharetrading" as the lockdown goes on and people have more time on their hands.....
Keep calm and carry on people.
The oft quoted flu mortality rate is based off of deaths vs estimated number of cases (which are in the millions), not deaths vs actual confirmed cases. The COVID-19 mortality rate is based off deaths vs confirmed cases. This is not an apples to apples comparison. If estimated cases were used to calculate the COVID-19 death rate it would plummet (and it will be well under 1% when it’s all said and done). That’s not scary enough though.
According to the US CDC. tested and diagnosed flu cases in the US were 231,654. Deaths from the flu, about 22,000. This makes the mortality rate from the flu about 10%, using the apples to apples comparison of tested and diagnosed. The mortality rate among tested and diagnosed victims of COVID 19 is about 1.2%. This makes COVID 19 much less deadly than the seasonal flu. https://www.cdc.gov/flu
That is but your opinion. Look at the figures. I think you are delusional. There that was easy wasn't it. We both have opinions which in a free country we are allowed to share and that is what makes a free country so great. Hope you keep well during the 4 weeks :) cheers.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
Uses the exact same source as blackcap (though why anyone would want to rely on ANYTHING from the US medical system, I don't know). Here's some example https://www.marketwatch.com/story/co...why-2020-03-09
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...virus/12068106
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html
There are literally hundreds of sources supporting the following key points:
- The virus has an infection (reproduction) rate in the region of 2 to 3 whereas the seasonal flu has in the region of 1.3. The exponential impact of infection rates is the biggest differentiating factor!
- This virus is significantly more likely to kill a patient (roughly ten times according to Fauci and a number of articles I've read with some saying as much as 20 times more).
- Unlike flu there is no herd immunity to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
- Incubation (hidden infection) period is ~5 days for coronavirus, versus ~2 for the flu.
- It may take many months or years to develop a vaccine.
Unfortunately Independent Observer is right. This is meant to be the positive thread but come on, don't downplay the seriousness of this pandemic. This clearly isn't just the flu. Have you not seen what Italy is going through right now?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmEciVm-6Q
Their hospitals are overflowing with cases. Once they run out of ICUs and respirators then the mortality rate goes way up as they just can't help everyone. it is a disaster out there, and highlights the importance of keeping things under control. Blackcap is right to say don't panic, and carry on, but trying to downplay the seriousness of it is not the right way to think about this. The lockdown (or other means of flattening the curve) is essential and a message that "this is no big deal, its not even as bad as the flu" is highly counterproductive. We don't see countries go into lockdown and health systems get totally overrun each year because of the flu.
Most of your points are debateable, as there is not enough reliable data to verify them. The death rate in particular. Flu mutates all the time, so herd immunity is only of limited help. The vast majority of deaths are ASSOCIATED with Covid-19 and are related to other health issues.
Italy's figures have spooked everyone, but they are recording a death of anyone who has Covid-19, whether that was the main cause of death or not. Other countries aren't. It is also likely that Italy has far more infections than the official figures, which would significantly drop the death rate.
Apologies if getting off topic
Well, many fish and shellfish stocks will get a breather, especially in those areas where there is a lot iof recreational fishing and harvesting pressure
Exactly. It is pretty clear that almost no one on this forum spouting the rhetoric that downplays this pandemic have ever worked on the frontline of the health system. Some of you are about to get a rather big shock but unfortunately I can only see you blaming someone else (e.g. the government) when we should be taking a hard look at ourselves and the society/community we have created.
the roads are empty, its kinda spooky but kinda nice too.
not good for Z shares but nice for a walk.
New enemy is corona. New weapons against corona and economy are surgical masks, medical devices, drugs, liquidity, loans and grants. One positive thing is whole world came together for the common cause and to fight with corona.
Currently Infected Patients: 336,362
In Mild Condition:321,562 (96%)
Serious or Critical: 14,800 (4%)
Recovered-Discharged: 114,740 (84%)
Thanks gods nearly 96% are in mild conditions. Currently, there are 14,800 serious patients. Their life is in danger. Very small quantity when compare with people who die from other diseases and accidents on yearly basis in each country. Only thing each country can do is take action to bring down death rates and prevent it from spreading. Some countries are managing well. Some countries don’t have good health facilities like western countries. To my surprise their death rate is still very low. Some countries took very easy at the beginning specially those who close to China geographically. Overall at least one will die in each country and some countries will escape from any deaths. Just like other virus corona also will disappear by the end of its cycle. How about if we have to live with it just likes other diseases?
In the midst of the crisis, misinformation on Corona has been spreading virally. Now China is opening businesses. Europe eventually should follow. When that happens, demand will go up. I am waiting for some studies on Corona and some findings from scientists.
SC - I respect that you want to contribute but this thread is not the one to do it on. There's a lot of nervous investors out there that would like a positive thread and this is their space, and those that want to assist by identifying POSITIVE effects.
Remember this from the world's greatest living investor - the man who has lived and managed the biggest investment portfolio through numerous crisis, each bigger than the other.
His investment portfolio not only survived but thrived post each of the crisis.
This is what Warren Buffett said :
"Our goal is more modest :
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy
and
to be greedy only when others are fearful."
Less drug dealing?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/cri...ce-in-two-days
Hand sanitizes,Gull
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/bet...-for-sanitiser
Truckies will be loving the empty roads and delivering ahead of time, efficiency plus." Ten Four"
Freedom campers are being thinned out.
The roads were pretty quiet when I shot to CHCH and back the day before lock down, but there were quite a few camper vans on the road and road sides - nowhere to go as the majority of campgrounds and freedom camping sites shutting down, and nothing to do as the tourist opperators are all shut down. Hell of a time to be on holiday. But then those arriving in the past couple of weeks and ignoring the self isolation request didn't help anyone.
Maybe the Government will sort their shirt out and regulate the situation properly going forward.
The Commonwealth might end up with young and relevant King and Queen if Chuckles gave the virus to his mommy and they both pop their clogs.
That should keep people employed reprinting our money and the like.
It's going to keep the US legal system in the black for many years to come.Think of all the law suits that are going to be filed,they are going to have a field day with the blame game
they encouraged visitors and backpackers last year to help harvest kiwifruit.Gave them temporary work permits,so yes BlackPeter thats a great idea