There may be some good short term trading to be had within what appears to be a developing Symmetrical Triangle. I have plotted a possible scenario.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta...052804_213.gif
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There may be some good short term trading to be had within what appears to be a developing Symmetrical Triangle. I have plotted a possible scenario.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta...052804_213.gif
Updated chart.
There has been the opportunity of at least 216 pips on this one, with a maximum of 579 so far.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta...232004_789.gif
Brought this thread back into circulation as
EUR.JPY has been mentioned by Xerof on the Chit Chat thread.
I gave this pair as a longer term short on Forextrader.com Forum
14th March after finding a Bearish Bat......(in my charts,
of all places!)
"Top pickers might like to look at this for a possible short.
Bearish Bat parameters have been met, and this is usually a reliable pattern provided we see a reversal signal confirmed at this point.
Knife catchers could try scaling in at circa 140.63".
For some reason I can't get the chart to show, but it can
be accessed on the E/J thread.
http://www.fxtradercenter.com/module...ownload&id=262
Currently there is some support being given by
a Gann level at 134.38
Long Term holders +515 pips at close.
arco
I've always marvelled at this pair, but never traded it myself.
But always willing to go into BAT if you post lovely charts like that occasionally Arco
Xerof
so its not all about the dollar after all
i'm now short one on this pair as well.
this never workd so had to bite a bullet on it. :(
Bearish Bat still delivering the goods.
Longer term holders +711 at close.
ATR Trailing stop 135.00
http://htomc.dns2go.com/anim/anim/bat.gif
Bearish Bat still exercising its wings.
Longer term holders +821 at close.
ATR Trailing stop 134.35
[}:)][}:)][}:)]
ATR Trailing stop moved to 134.18
Moving ATR Trailing stop to 133.62
(Max avaiable so far - +902)
Moving ATR Trailing stop down to 132.95
(Max avaiable pips so far - +973)
Moving ATR Trailing stop down to 132.67
(Max avaiable pips so far - +996)
The ATR2 traling stop was hit on the 13th
giving circa 796 pips.
Ok north run last few days,might test 4.29ish?.
Morning Miner
Secondary Gann level at 134.37
If that breaks there is a Butterfly projection
slightly above that circa 135.60 - 135.93
arco
Morning Arco,thanks for that,see how we go today,nice last daily candle.
Cheers
Miner
Well Arco it did test it,out of the pairs I was watching this one looked to be the least affected by last nights goings on.
Good Morning All
I apologise for being 2 pips adrift....it was
all Mr Ganns fault....honest it was guv :D
Release the Hounds......
See it turned on the daily trend line,same as eur/usd and usd/chf.
And now testing 4.35 area again,could be worth watching to see if it gets through it today,or gets shorted on it either way could give an ok trade.
And now a double top at .64?
GFT news
[EUR/YEN]'s topside remains capped by the combination of both exporter offers, seen through 134.70-00, and also the expectation of some Japanese bond repatriation flows. These are linked to this week's European Government bond redemptions and coupon payments, in excess of Eur 50bln (France to pay Eur 23.4bln Tuesday, Italy Eur 11.4bln on Friday, along with Holland's Eur 16.9bln), although investor demand for the cross in Tokyo hours contradicts initial market chatter. The technical bias is also positive currently with the break above 134.40 implying a further extension towards 135.50-136.00 is possible before exhaustion within the overall downtrend. Look for this to provide support to Eur/Yen whilst we hold above the 50 day m.a at 133.73.
Thanks for that Peat,like said on other thread nice daily's(trending).
Harry Hindsight says MACD crossed over +ve on Jun 15th at 132.46 (days high)
Long on the trendline again today?.
Might have been that U turn,eur/usd and usd/chf doing the same.
Trendline was on the daily:D;),now if it can get through yesterdays high??,trying it's best;).
Head on zee block if this gets through yesterdays high then long eur/usd and short usd/chf and usd/jpy,last 3 are doing a bit of a U turn now and eur/jpy still testing the high.
They are trendline swapping now on hourly(last 3)
Xerof since you pointed out this pair to me(thanks) I have given it a screen and it is a good one to trade as well as an indicator as to what my other 3 are going to do.
But some days eur/usd goes with it (yesterday) and other days usd/jpy goes with it,so the trick is picking who is following it at any given point in time.
If when you have time any thoughts on this would be good,ta.
Save loosing my head[:0]
Cheers
Miner
A few if's but if usd/jpy keeps going and this one follows it's got some catching up to do.
Example of first thought trading,it did follow and I was long at 5.15 but had a stop 2 lousy pips too tight(was not my usual stop),so due to rule breaking got stopped then didn't go long again duah[B)][B)][B)].
Well, for what its worth, I wonder if we have a nice reversal pattern forming here. H&S pattern has traced out, plus a return to the neckline being seen right now on the 1hr chart and (less obvious, but there all the same) on the 4 hr chart.
Haven't looked at this pair for a while but on first glance/first impression, that was what jumped out at me Miner.
Would fit a grind higher in USD/JPY, collapse in EUR/USD scenario
Xerof
xerof i see the pattern but I'll have to play the idiot here and ask reversal from which direction the short term one going down or the medium term one going up.
I was only looking at the short term charts. Assuming this neckline resistance holds around 135.10 or so, it should target 132/133 minimum
Maybe a sell here, with a 30 pips s/l?? It could break the neckline resistance, in which case 136.10, then 137 ish come back into play.
Don't send me an invoice for any losses incurred though, I don't profess to be an expert on charts!! but H&S formations are fairly reliable
Xerof
First thoughts I like hence my first thought trading comment the other day,this pair works well with my others,but is doing it's own thing today so to me worth a watch.
As for me I'm doing the 2 minds trader- medium thing again,stops on tho,thanks for your thoughts.
Thought you watched this one more.I like it,usd/jpy needs to hold 60 today tho?..
Cheers
Miner
Put a trendline on from last daily high,action at the mo is on it(well there abouts hehe),so watching which side it goes.
Did I say that first thoughts are sometimes followed by second thoughts, hehe
WHAT I put the house on your post[:0][B)]:D;),first thoughts work for me,over think it toast,trick is going with them.
:D:D
Germany's ZEW fundamental might have changed the dynamics a bit....but trendline still holding.....on the other hand....but then again.....hehe
That worked a treat..not...H&S formations are now officially the most unreliable formations.....esp on 1 hour charts.....
But then, a tight stop and reverse would have you quids in this morning. The old resistance at 136.10 back in focus
Clear from all the EUR crosses that there was demand for EUR agst CHF, JPY and GBP, and this fed into EUR/USD, which saw the swing trade play back to where I indicated on the EUR.USD thread - 1.2020.
Hope the bank doesn't have your house up for mortgagee auction Miner[xx(][xx(]
Xerof
Not me mate,all I managed to do yesterday was yet again break one of my rules and the price was missing some great trades[B)],but didn't get nailed on any,one day I'll play by "all" of my rules and make a few more $$$:D;).
Cheers
Miner
Oop's hit edit rather than quote last time.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by miner
A few if's but if usd/jpy keeps going and this one follows it's got some catching up to do.
Example of first thought trading,it did follow and I was long at 5.15 but had a stop 2 lousy pips too tight(was not my usual stop),so due to rule breaking got stopped then didn't go long again duah[B)][B)][B)].
Well last night was the wrong night to get on the booze with me mate[B)],hope someone got the move on this and usd/jpy[?].
morning miner
got most but this one, the biggest mover.
still not complaining;)
Good stuff slam I did my usual first thought set short at 17 when it was bouncing around in the arvo testing it(so short usd/jpy also as go same way) then mate rang to say hole dug come down and shoot the pig(then had to have a drink in the shed in memory of old grunter),so didn't set short:([B)],but never mind as with FX there will always be another trade;).
Now it's pick the next move time,maybe test last nights lows.
PS: miner, rule # 3;)hehe
:DUmm yep ta,next week I promise;).
As it's not next week yet:D,this is a good pair to watch guys,it usually has quiet tidy moves when others can be all over the place,ie look at the tails on say eur/usd and usd/chf daily's lately.
Just encase someone reads my tea leaf FX thoughts hehe,this one yet again has had a tidy day(next is usd/jpy out of the 4 I watch,as it often is),ok so daily and hourly much the same,so put a trendline on both hourlys this morning then look at the 10am hourly,this is when eur/jpy got going but usd/jpy moved on the 9am hourly,so it gave you an hours jump on the eur/jpy move north as they go the same way,so usd/jpy said what eur/jpy was going to do.
The other 2 I watch are messy today but both added to the above a bit also.
Cheers
Miner
Put a trend line on the daily for the last 5 days or so,quiet tidy;).Quote:
quote:Originally posted by miner
As it's not next week yet:D,this is a good pair to watch guys,it usually has quiet tidy moves when others can be all over the place,ie look at the tails on say eur/usd and usd/chf daily's lately.
Or the hourly;)Quote:
quote:Originally posted by miner
Put a trend line on the daily for the last 5 days or so,quiet tidy;).Quote:
quote:Originally posted by miner
As it's not next week yet:D,this is a good pair to watch guys,it usually has quiet tidy moves when others can be all over the place,ie look at the tails on say eur/usd and usd/chf daily's lately.
136.71 is a Gann resistance level to watch
for a possible shorting opportunity.
Just in case anyone is checking this
one out, the intermediate Gann level
may have been broken and no reversal
signal has come yet. Next major Gann
is at 137.50
Watching for now.
Bounced north off daily trendline again today,nice pair this one as often quiet tidy.trend line from 2 previous days that is
Cheers
Miner
Anybody else seen the very symmetrical H&S formation on the daily?
Might tie in nicely with what the Major is looking to defend Arco?
Any signs of his men shouldering arms?
Neckline at 133.50 might make it a good r/r trade if one has confidence in either the pattern or Colonel Gann
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Could happen......but you have to be brave.......
Just preparing to SAR around +/-137.45
(Long currently +151) [8D]
I feel a cruise coming on.........
arco
SAR 137.48 with tight stop
Boy, that was a scary stop - coming within 2 pips
of catastrophy at I slumbered blissfully unaware.
But looking OK at the moment + 18 pips , but don't
think we should be too greedy with this retrace.
arco, - refreshed and ready to tackle a
Butterfly Cake ;)
Wouldn't be a reverse eur/jpy butterfly cake would it arco[?]
just looking at the daily, or have I got the wrong end of the wing:)
Hi Slam
Correct,
and as mentioned Friday night "SAR 137.48 with tight stop"
.....meaning sell the long and reverse trade to a short with
a tight stop to protect. In other words - if you are long
1 mill go short 2 mill which reverses the trade.
(SAR = Stop and reverse).
arco
Hi arco
got ya:)
I went short fri at 137.55
Just wait now to see if the gartley turns to a butterfly hey
Thanks for the explain
Cheers
slam
For anyone following the EUR.JPY short trade
I have taken 70 pips.
arco
i was following your journey in spirit arco
well done again!
Whisky?
may have started it's asent to 1.3900ish
slam
Slam
Yes I have gone back in long at 136.90
+ 37 currently
arco
I closed this one off last night at 137.18
for a measly 28 pips. Generally things were
looking a bit messy and with the weekend
ahead I prefer to minimise positions.
To quote arco from GBP Thread "Could be forming a Pennant on the 15m presently"
Dito for this one imo
Head and Shoulder formations seem to be the flavour of the day today, so take a look at the EUR/JPY daily chart.
This pair played out a nice H&S during April/May and looks like it might be history repeating. Perhaps a little early to do anything, but would be interested in other thoughts on it.
An early signal to enter from a level which is not too far away might be a breach of the rising trendline, currently sitting around 134.80 level, being part of a larger triangle
It is certainly visually appealing [^][^]
Xerof
I think I have discovered a new patttern....
....its called the Parachute Drop....you can
see one now on EUR.JPY 15m. :D
Bangoes my Mangoes
you mean a jump with the parachute still in the plane don't you Arco?
Tidy again today,hourly's.
Peat this one moved first and the tidiest out of my 4 today,so it gave you the jump on the other 3,more so on eur/usd and usd/chf than usd/jpy,might be something that could help in the future?.
Cheers
Miner
Long on trendline from last 2 days this morning,lucky I was at the dentist:(,eur/usd and usd/chf playing follow the leader as they did yesterday,test yesterdays high time now.
Action is playing within a confluence of potential Gartley/Butterfly zones and looks like a reasonable entry point for a possible move north.
1st entry taken @ 135.86 + 22............we'll see how it goes
arco
Patience, patience...........
however, making some minor progress + 32
Possible Gann support 135.94 with Gann resistance above @ 137.50
arco
I closed this position +7 after the Gann was broken in what appeared to be a fast positive move, - although its seems to be creeping back up again now [V]
from my platform news an hour ago
[EUR/JPY] is holding below the now pivotal 200 day m.a. at 136.15, buyers of the earlier break to the 136.42 day's high having been frustrated by Japanese exporters" keenness to sell ahead of Friday's end to the fiscal half-year. As noted earlier speculative Jpy longs could be in for a test if Japanese CPI at 23.30GMT comes in significantly negative. The focus amongst traders has been comments from a range of BOJ speakers recently who have said that Japanese prices are set to begin rising. Initial bids are noted in the 135.50/75 region.
Quote:
quote:Lars Skriver - Jyskebank
Can the Tankan report on Monday do what a higher Nikkei,
higher bond yields and better economic fundamentals cannot
do? Namely taking the JPY higher across the board and
especially against the EUR. This would be a bit surprising as the
Japanese currency tends to be immune against any fundamental
figures. Could this report for once be the excpetion that
confirms the rule? I doubt it. Though it would suit me fine, as I
keep my entrance level for a new funding position in the JPY
against the EUR around the 133.50 level. A strategy which so far
has failed to pay out. With the risk of repeating myself the key
word for approaching the JPY regarding any funding is
patience. This is especially worth to remember as the EUR/JPY
is tumbling around without having any kind of trend at all.
With the latest positive development on the domestic side in
Japan I guess there must be a few disappointed JPY bulls out
there. This does not include myself. The latest comments of
Suda from BoJ might have given them more appetite as they,
once more, were rather hawkish regarding a change of the
monetary policy in Japan. Too early I would say. Any change of
the current policy takes time in Japan and before this could
happen we need to see the CPI continously spiking higher
taking the economy out it's current deflation. We are not there
yet.
Hence I still see the whereabouts of the EUR/JPY between the
131 and 141, and if The Tankan can boost the JPY, I would use
this as an opportunity to put on a new funding position against
the EUR at the 133.50 level.
Thanks Peat that is very interesting reading.
As mentioned, I got out last night as the action was confused. Best to be out with a small profit and wait for a clear signal. I have placed a limit long at 136.60 because the harmonic patterns are still valid.
arco
Wentlong on the DT line break
Currently +112
Could be some resistance ahead circa 138.84
arco
I've been monitoring this one from the other perspective Arco - I'm waiting for a reversal.
Indeed, 138.85 is a resistance level, followed by 139.48, but hoping for higher goals above 140 before the turn
altiora peto ;);)
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/8503/eurjpy3ig.png
Xerof
Arco, are you still long this pair?
Its knock knock knockin' on heavens door at 139.48 trendline, but I don't see any particularly compelling reasons for a turn just yet - maybe we can see it grind on up into the 140 to 142 zone?
Xerof
chart update - broke through resistance overnight - 140/141 achievable now
http://img436.imageshack.us/img436/2892/eurjpy2qs.png
Xerof
Morning Xerof
Yes still hanging in.....more to come yet I believe.
arco
141.00 achieved, but still no obvious signs of turning. (Hanging in there still Arco?)
142.13 looks like a juicy turn level, but may look to put a trailing stop entry in somewhere this week.
Xerof
under 140 this morning - damn - the 1.382ish fib area foiled higher attempts - apologies.
Its only come back to rising T/L so far, so maybe all is not lost
Xerof
Well, after NYK close, there's obviously a bearish engulfing candle...
Hi All
H&S on the daily, see if the neck breaks hey;)
Cheers
Slam
Edit: On second look neck has been broken
Waiting in the wings to see what happens at 'b'...
a reversal pattern would be nice.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/042906_eur.jpy.gif
arco
i already jumped in short at 143.25 (2PM) and have followed up with USD and GBP shorts against the Yen as well.
Go teh Nippon money!
not really working out well.... , bailing before it goes negative.
Morning All
Short entered last night at 143.63 based
on the previous daily candle - currently +53
.....SL now moved to b/e.
Regards - arco
http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/3884/eurjpy3zm.gif
Tight stop hit @ + 50.
Does anyone see a nice bearish Gartley as I see on the hourly? :D
Reversal at 143.95?
went too high last nite to conform to the pattern I think but yeh see what you mean - it had the making. where are our experts?
Pringy and Peat,
I couldn't resist Peat's taunt (sorry, I have been extraordinarily busy away from the forum community lately)
Your gartley has morphed into a butterfly, with a popular target of 1.272% extension, being around 144.60, but could extend to 161.8%, which I haven't shown. Not entirely convinced but watch action around that level if it gets there
http://img469.imageshack.us/img469/619/eurjpy4tc.png
Xerof (MIA - lol)
This is one I watch,was saying to a mate last night who was around,should be a buy on a dip looking at the daily and the way it is trending,nice dip entry last night.
Cheers
Miner
Nice run on the hourly's today,as with usd/jpy(as they go the same way in general),eur/jpy often is a good one through the day for a nice trend,often from around the change of the daily which is a good time to watch for an entry.
Cheers
Miner