Fairfax considering selling Trade Me as it needs the cash, Fairfax shares have dropped from $7.00 in 2007 to $1.32 and rumour is that F needs to boost its proformance.
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Fairfax considering selling Trade Me as it needs the cash, Fairfax shares have dropped from $7.00 in 2007 to $1.32 and rumour is that F needs to boost its proformance.
Yes, Whatsup, that's a fast way of getting some capital together. I think we all sat up when Sam Morgan and others did the deal with Fairfax, and thought "Why aren't we that smart?". But there was only room for one big player in the market, and they have it. Turns out Sam and Co set the business up with the idea of selling it off, they had that figured out early on. And Fairfax or someone like them had to buy, they were simply following the money. In this case, advertising revenue, and a cut on national sales. A bit like owning VISA.
Anyway, such a cleverly set up business, doing many small business-people and the public a power of good, I'd buy in anytime.
Yes, sounds promising but I'd need to look hard at it first, too.
The dot com scene moves so quickly that first mover advantage can't be counted on to last as long as it once did. EBay, Google etc aren't quite as gold-plated as they once were as the "next big thing" arrives.
Agree with Fungus - are you really dumb enough to say you'd be in when details haven't even been set on the table? One things for sure, they'll milk it for all they can get
Perhaps they'll auction it on Trade Me :eek2::eek2:
:p they could take over NZX
I would have thought Faifax would be better off selling their newspapers and keeping trade me.
Morgan Stanley say at least $1.5 billion
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/51516...x-paid-it-2006
But then things have changed over the last few months ... Trade Me into new things .... and the world has gone mad on values
Packaged up as a NZ icon and plenty of og glossy brochures with pretty dolly birds plastered all over it and preferental allocation to Trade Me members (million plus? I reckon you would get $2 billion at least
Percy - you may be right about your comment - the article suggests that Trade Me is about half of Fairfax value.
Jeez if Firfax hock off Trade Me and try to start charging to view content (pay wall) they be dead in the water
I don't follow your logic. THEY MADE 750M off a much smaller capital investment! The return on capital must be staggering. You are quibbling over the extra increase in value, but how much does a person need? If you are calling them stupid, where is your 750m company? lol.
Trademe is a fairly mature business. Where will the revenue growth come from? There is a limit to the amount of product development they can achieve, and they can't move into another country. Maybe they will crank up auction fees? I guess you will need to hold shares as a regular user to offset the inevitable increases in fees! I might be wrong, but I'll be happy to steer clear of this one. I bet mum & dad investors will flock to the brand though.
Looks like an IPO price of $2.70. This is at the top end of its $2.30-to-$2.70 indicative range.
What are your guys thoughts on the price. Too high? just right? Will still see excessive demand?
Lou to expensive for this cat
Hmmm... without the propectus (due to get registered today I think) the book build at the high end suggests demand,,so it will be keenly sought after.
Fairfax have cleaned out the cupboards with a generous dividend to themselves (maybe equivalent to 50c/s div)..so no family silver left for the future shareholders.
Without much data and working on deductions which could be totally wrong...a back of the envelope approx calculation by me suggests
about 400M shares issued.. one third of which is to go public = 135M shares
Profit 69.7M / 400M shares = Earnings / share = 17.4c/s
PE 15.5 @ share price $2.70
Dividend 17.4c/s lets say they pay out 70% = 12c/s === 4.5% yield.
so I would have these figures in mind before I get to see the Propectus......Its priced about right...so atm using rough figures it doesn't seem to offer any stag potential..does it?
Feel free to correct my deduced figures if in error...or have exact figures
EDIT: update ...134.6M shares to be floated representing 34% of total issued
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10764598
The floors all yours Balance - pray, do enlighten us.......
discl: DIL at 20 cents, 85 cents, $1.00
discl: NZ citizen
The Offer is opening soon
We're getting in touch to offer you an opportunity to participate in the Trade Me Group Limited initial public offering ("the Offer"). You have qualified for the Trade Me Eligible Member Offer, which is a priority offer in recognition of your support of Trade Me. This is a bit more serious and legalistic than a lot of our usual communications, and we think you should read it carefully.
Eligible Trade Me Members
Eligible Trade Me Members are either:
Enabled members with a feedback rating of at least 500 as at 28 October 2011; or
Enabled members of the Top Seller Programme as at 28 October 2011; or
Enabled members who have qualified twice for the Top Seller Programme in the period between 28 June 2011 and 28 October 2011.
You can apply soon
You will be able to apply for shares online when the Offer opens, which is expected to be on Thursday, 17 November 2011
You will be provided with details of the Offer website via an email from Trade Me on that day. This email will also include a unique Entitlement Number. You will need this to apply for shares, and only one Application per Eligible Trade Me Member will be accepted. Note too that Applications are not transferable.
The combined prospectus and investment statement (“the Offer Document”) will be available on the Offer website, along with your online Application Form. Please note you will be required to download the Offer Document on the Offer website before you can submit your Application for shares online.
Application amount
The Offer Price is $2.70 per Share.
The minimum Application size for the Trade Me Eligible Member Offer is 750 Shares (NZ$2,025) and thereafter in whole multiples of 200 Shares (NZ$540). Applications from Eligible Trade Me Members may be subject to scaling at the absolute discretion of the Company in consultation with Fairfax Media Limited and the Lead Manager of the Offer.
Applications close Monday, 5 December 2011
Applications must be received by 5.00pm (New Zealand time) on Monday, 5 December 2011.
Before deciding whether or not to apply for shares under the Trade Me Eligible Member Offer, you should read the Offer Document carefully and in its entirety.
You can view the Offer Document now
A dedicated Trade Me microsite has been set up at ipo.trademe.co.nz, and you can download a PDF copy of the Offer Document from there.
More Information
For further information you can contact the Offer Information Line on 0800 990057 (toll free within New Zealand), 1800 868 464 (toll free within Australia), or +61 2 8280 7778 (outside New Zealand and Australia) from 9.00am until 7.00pm (NZDT) Monday to Friday.
Application has been made to NZX to quote the Shares on NZSX and all the requirements relating thereto that can be complied with on or before the date of release of this communication have been duly complied with. However, NZX accepts no responsibility for any statement in this communication. NZX is a registered exchange regulated under the Securities Markets Act 1988.
Yours sincerely,
David Kirk, Chairman
Trade Me Group Ltd
Jon Macdonald, CEO
Trade Me Group Ltd
What to do, what to do...
Warren Buffet would notice Trademe is a monopoly which is a big tick.
Against that, what are the barriers for a competitor? None. Hmmm not so good. Could Ebay Australia break in? Yes - not easily, not overnight, but Yes.
Is there room for the monopoly to expand? TM already covers most markets apart from groceries and securities. If TM tries to be all things to all people the risk is niche competitors will draw away business.
How big is the market? 4 million people. No more. Most of whom are familiar with TM or have no interest and never will do.
I think Warren would pass this opportunity up.
Not being a 'global citizen' I couldn't possibly have anything of value to add to assessing the merits of this IPO, as it is after all, an IT IPO, and we NZ investors apparently have no clues, but I too Winston, will be letting this one slip from my grasp.
I do wonder how many of the high volume Trademe traders being offered scrip would take it up - from my very limited interaction with this site (usually monitoring daughters used clothing offerings.....while she swans around buying new.....), most volume traders appear to be businesses, used car salespersons, real estate agents or your regular 'garage sale' trawlers.......not your most obvious captive audience, I wouldn't have thought, but there again, Warren and I will stand corrected by global citizens from [insert country of choice] or the likes
Still awaiting enlightenment from our global brucealmighty
:)
The only thing missing from Chairman David Kirks offering mail .. !!
" Wait there is more " .. !!..
Over hyped in my opinion..
I can't see any room for growth with TM. Personally I'm finding it harder to sell things on there now, what with the way they keep increasing the fees, and now the huge changes to NZ post system, it hardly seems worth the effort.
Well I dunno - according to The Press this morning people and institutions buying into Trade Me at $2.70 can expect a yield of 5.1%.
That is, about half Telecom's yield!
And some people maintain the market is "rational"?
Never has Warren Buffett's words of wisdom been so aptly illustrated that he avoids floats as they are a device to unload shares from which existing owners have taken all the profit and which approach stagnation or decline onto eager ignorant suckers egged on by the news media.
For the record, I disagree with the vast majority of you and am trying to get as many as I can.
I agree with a lot of you on a 10 year outlook (growth slowing etc), but what I see is a great business, that throws off cash and requires very little investment, at a so-so price, in a sharemarket (NZX) that has very few quality companies.
I expect the share price to be a fair bit higher than the IPO price in 12 months time.
Past that, I have no idea, and I accept there are real risks - especially if the shares do up, and, cut loose from Fairfax, the managers feel they have a mandate for fast growth and do something stupid.
Fairfax get 66% at a free carry, and the rest of their business is bad and they still have lots of debt. (If the Trade Me price got truly silly one day, I'm sure Fairfax would have an open mind on selling the rest) The managers now have free reign and perhaps (don't know yet) stock options etc. The thing is underpinned by a quality, proven business.
There is every incentive to make this fly for a year or two. If there is a problem, it'll come after that.
Well commented on SD
Looks like I'll have to take my chance with any allocations going ....
The 'chance for the 2.8 million Trade Me community to participate on a preferential basis' is a bit misleading ... only those who buy or sell heaps gualify .... our rating of 300 odd is not enough .... OMG we have bought more than 300 things on Trade Me over the last few years ... whats happening to the world .... and maybe that is the secret of the Trade Me model
Even if one has to buy on market post IPO probably a few bob to be made in the next year or so .... heck even a dog like PPL saw its shareprice rocket after an IPO .... and I love that word iconic
Bet the prospectus is a littler beauty .... one that will make punters salivate
And one other point IRD is gearing up 'to take an interest in those individuals who sell their shares soon after the float' .... pub talk says they are getting quite excited about it
The head honcho at Trade Me says (NBR) We really wanted members to be able to participate directly in the IPO – they‘ve helped build Trade Me over the years and remain very important for us," Mr MacDonald said.
But only 28,000 qualify out of the 2.8 million community that has helped build Trade Me up over the years .... well done Mr MacDonald - you hark on about the community being able to particapate but leave 2,827,333 (active members less 28,000) out of the equation .... that is one way to piss off the community .... funny how that 1% sahre in the spoils while 99% get left out .... bugger another reason to Occupy Dunedin or wherever
I reckon the growth is with trde me jobs and the dating service.
The auction buisness i reckon is now as good as it gets.
Many things are now unsold and can be bought cheaper elsewhere , especially with a high NZ dollar.
One example is books , with amazon UK now having free postage to NZ its cheaper just to buy new from them
They have already raised their commision costs , its now quite expensive to sell , once all the cost
of photos etc and commision are taken into account. Dont see much more room to increase charges there.
I registered with Direct Broking indicating I would like to invest around $5000, today they have informed me due to scaling down they are now unable to meet my request. So I’ll guess I just have wait and see what happens in mid December when they list.
http://ipo.trademe.co.nz/
Prospectus
I certainly would not pay $2.70 for TM. It's been a while since any major listing so TM is generating a lot of interest, hence the oversubscription and the high price. Similar to the Air NZ bond I reckon. Don't feel bad if the price keep going up to over $3 in a short time as it's unsustainable in my opinion. When it does drop it's likely to drop big time. I'm not too keen on new listing as the management team is still a big unknow and the prospectus only tells you so much. I would rather wait a year for the first annual result to make a decision on whether to invest in a new company or not.
Quite important to have a strong board as well, rather than one that's only focused in giving itself a pay raise (yesterday's article in NZ Herald re xxx company).
Yes i gave a level of interest at 54k to ASB. Will see whats offered to 'a valued client'
Non committal stage still
I used to go to Trade Me site on a regular basis,but seldom visit now days,so will not look to take up any shares.
Is that because you have now become a " Rich Prick " Perc ?.
No,I will always be a "Hopeless Prick" whether I am rich or poor.!!!
I must admit I use other sites.For example their holiday rental section is poor, there are better sites.
Cars, I usually go to Turners Auctions.Travel I go to either Jetstar or House of travel site .Art for sale is made up of over priced rubbish.I follow Blythe Fletcher paintings,and only ones ever listed are ones dealers are stuck with. I notice daughter goes straight to Ezby Buy site,etc.
I also doubt their growth projections, and I am sure the Aussie's will not leave a lot for us Kiwi's.
I did do well with WTF in Aussie,I got them on listing,but over time opposition grew and they lost their market position.Thought the same may happen with trade me.
As for selling,we usually give good stuff to family and friends,or donate to Salvation Army as my wife worked as a volunteer for them for a number of years.
One of the first lessons a newbie is supposed to learn, which Stranger Danger et al obviously haven't, is don't fall in love with a share - TradeMe.
Don't make excuses for its failings, ignore its weaknesses, tout what isn't there.
I was fascinated to see it has a putative 5.1% gross yield ratio on listing.
So I read Saturday's Press to check out the gross yield ratio of significant shares on the NZX as a comparison and here's the result;
AMP 7.08, Auck Airport 5.31, Contact 5.86, F & P Healthcare 7.39, Fletcher Bldg 6.33, Freightways 6.24, Hallenstein Glasson 11.47, Infratil 5.18, Kathmandu 5.81, Kiwi Ppty 7.2, Nthland Port 6.54, NZ Refining 5.95, Sky City 6.14, Sky Network TV 11.49, Southport 8.48, Steel & Tube 9.52, Telecom 10.46, Telstra 8.98, Tower 9.16, Trustpower 6.92, Vector 7.57, Warehouse 9.67, Westpac 7.55.
The only one it beats is Port of Tauranga on 4.65%.....And which would you rather have for growth PoT or TradMe?
(of course one could always get that idiot Phaedrus to draw a chart of TradeMe and solve your problems ;-) ).
A rather low, inaccurate blow there, Gustavus!Quote:
(of course one could always get that idiot Phaedrus to draw a chart of TradeMe and solve your problems ;-) ).
Whatever the merits of TradeMe as a longterm investment, I expect that the scarcity factor will offer good stagging profits for those "lucky" enough to participate in the IPO.
I won't be there.
[QUOTE=macduffy;360980]A rather low, inaccurate blow there, Gustavus!
Very inaccurate.He always gave me sound advice whenever I asked.His charts and commentary are dearly missed.Only hope he is enjoying his travels.
And how could he draw a chart, the share is not listed yet!
(of course one could always get that idiot Phaedrus to draw a chart of TradeMe and solve your problems ;-) ).[/QUOTE]
Being always in a learning phase, I have enough trouble wading through some of the extremely well thought out posts on ST, without having to be distracted by the growing number of negative remarks in recent times. Phaedrus was an excellent and patient teacher, evidenced by reading his many intelligent posts. He deserved the title Guru. A literal translation of Guru would be mentor, teacher or master. Phaedrus fitted that translation admirably.
It would be a great shame to see top posters leave the forum because of this growing element I see as unpleasant, as no doubt others do.
And for the record, I have no interest in Trade Me, believing it wont go far, but I look at any thread which has posters I admire.
Holey moley, the Major has had a brain explosion - Phaedrus is one of the top contributors to this thread over many years
wash your mouth out with soap and water
I am far from being in love with Trade Me. I think its best days are in the past.
I just think a quality company coming to market with a "so-so" valuation that gets greeted with pessimism often ends up surprising in the first year.
I believe Trade Me will be a good investment for 12 months. After that...probably not.
I noticed the brokers and institutions were mainly negative...whilst bidding for 3 times as much stock than is available.
I suspect people will be talking negative for months. At the same time, I believe it will be going up.
Being always in a learning phase, I have enough trouble wading through some of the extremely well thought out posts on ST, without having to be distracted by the growing number of negative remarks in recent times. Phaedrus was an excellent and patient teacher, evidenced by reading his many intelligent posts. He deserved the title Guru. A literal translation of Guru would be mentor, teacher or master. Phaedrus fitted that translation admirably.
It would be a great shame to see top posters leave the forum because of this growing element I see as unpleasant, as no doubt others do.
And for the record, I have no interest in Trade Me, believing it wont go far, but I look at any thread which has posters I admire.[/QUOTE]
Excellent post Karen1.Always interesting to read poster's who have given the subject some thought.
Ok, lets spell it out plainly.
There have been discussions about the place, if any, in share investment of what is called charting.
I have been to a reasonably advanced university level in pure maths, advanced statistics and econometrics, charting as you know it was not deemed to have any merit worth studying nor am I aware of it as a university course in more than an odd isolated case perhaps.
Charting starts from a static position and makes various analyses none of which are useful in a dynamic market of myriad factors and constantly developing news and related variables. Charting is absolutely pointless for predicting the future except in a totally static situation, maybe the Q'ing dynasty in China and even there you had multiple unpredictable weather variations and diseases.
I am not aware of anyone becoming a multi-millionaire through charting as they should have if its claims were true.
Buffett et al are on record as saying they don't use charting. The banks, finance and investment houses don't use it.
Charting is analogous to alternative medicine and to astrology vs astronomy.
When challenged chartists always refuse to make a share prediction that can be quantified. But they always develop, in retrospect, 20 20 vision as to why something happened although they could never discuss it in advance.
Hence I become rather irritated when I see a share topic under the heading "Contact Energy chart", although when you read such threads you see that over time none of the useful discussion is chart based.
So, I reserve my right, nay my duty, to shoot holes in any chart based analysis and any "gurus" attempting to practise the black art in what should be a rational society.
Thank you for your post Major.I still object to you calling Phaedrus an idiot.Charting is a useful sharemarket tool.Phaedrus went past that,and freely gave good natured,friendly,sauge advice, and commentaries,which were always on the button.I really miss his posts.
Unfortunately :p I have a liberal point of view that everyone is entitled to their opinion...but please MVT don't resurrect this very old chesnut TA v FA...argument here. It's well off topic on this thread.
If you really have an itch to write bad comments about TA, please do it on the appropriate thread.
try http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...n-Old-Argument.
Thank you Major.
Whether a chart, dart, in depth or superficial analysis, or whatever else, a well structured criticism of a method used in the arena of shares will no doubt be a useful tool to someone, in fact you mention none of the useful discussion is chart based, which suggests that a chart may engender positive discussion, surely a good thing.
Charting is not something I follow, but it never stopped me reading Phaedrus’ well intentioned posts, as some of his comments were of great value to me. My objection to the use of the word idiot in connection to him was simply that I felt it was undeserved, as undeniably he was well thought of here, and as he no longer posts here is not in a position to defend your attack on him.
Phaedrus’ title of Guru – whichever way you look at it, he helped many to better understand the share market, willingly and patiently. His title could have been anything, it wouldn’t alter what he did.
I believe I am a reasonably well educated, rational member of society, and, like you, defend my right to comment here on something which I consider distasteful, that is the name calling.
Let us all on ST rise above our politicians, who on any given day can be heard to resort to the pettiness of name calling. And I am not singling you out, Major.
I look forward to reading many more educated and helpful posts here.
Has any one received application forms to purchase the Trade Me IPO (not the register of interest)? I heard ASB securities was meant to come out today but have not seen anything. I also heard ASB Securties is meant to be first in first served so don’t want to miss the boat.
How does "first in first served", but "be prepared for scaling" work? So first in isn't first served.......
I'm out, can't be bothered with all this palava
No mate, I don't have a broker - I trust my judgement, and I'm a cheapskate, I use internet brokers to transact. That is one of the downsides I guess, but my point was in all this: I get an email from ASB saying as "a valued client" blah blah.......so I respond expressing an interest in 20k shares, to which they respond: here's the application form, first in first served, but there may be scaling.
that doesn't make any sense to me......
If I was really keen on it, maybe I'd persevere, but I was only ever luke warm; its fully priced at the top of the expected range; and the peoples' whose judgement I respect reckon its a pass at 2.70.
Time will tell, I would think there's a bit of a stag in it but just not for me to be bothered chasing thanks
The scaling clause will be to cover the butts in the event that they get to many applications on a given day.
Hey guys,
Any new thinking on this before the cutoff time. My thinking is that there are far better medium/long term investments out there - even on the nzx - but I'm pretty certain that they will perform well over the first few months at least, mostly due to the oversubscriptions and the media interest that will occur.
Any thoughts?
Another topic: A colleague of mine reckons he heard that ird will try to hit those that sell shares in the first few days of listing with a capital gains tax. Anyone think this is practical, or even legally correct?
Cheers
I bet the IRD wont be following up if the price drops.
I suspect Might River will be a much more satisfying IPO than TradeMe although I also suspect that the price will be a bit rich for me and the dividend yield too low....
When is the Trade Me IPO list date?
13th of December
http://www.craigsip.com/institutions...s/trademe.html
Did anyone have any luck getting any trademe shares.
Hoop,
You are very naughty.Don't know what is worse,"buying into a red ink NZX period",or admiting to it.?!!!!
I only hope they list at a premium or you will never here the end of it.
" Have luck".!!!!!!!!
I got my allocation, but I got my application in when the forms were sent in. Looks like this person missed out http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-f...ectid=10770455
i filled out the form had the money in my account and recieved an email saying i was unsuccessful, due to popular demand,
go figure!!;)
I just had a look at the bank balance of the account that was to be direct debited & the full amount of money corresponding to all the shares applied for has been deducted. I haven't received an Email so I don't know if that means I got all I applied for or if there will be scaling & I'll get some money returned.
My understanding from the timetable is that we won't know what we got until Monday the 12th of December.
Below is another copy of those important dates..and I've highlighted that one in red.....
Important Dates
Wednesday 9 November..................Offer Document registered
Thursday 17 November....................Broker Firm Offer and Priority Offer expected to open
Monday 5 December........................Priority Offer Closing Date
Tuesday 6 December.......................Broker Firm Offer Closing Date
Monday 12 December...................Settlement, allocation and allotment
Tuesday 13 December.....................Expected commencement of trading on the NZSX and ASX (on a deferred settlement basis for ASX).
Just curious??...Are there some people on ST applying for TME shares that have not read further than the cover of their prospectus.... the reason I ask is that these important dates were on page 2 in very large black bold letter fonts...theres no way you could not miss reading it.
Ta for that Hoop. I replied to the thread without relooking at the prospectus dates but now see the option of scaling & getting some money returned is indeed a possibility. (This is only my second day in the last two months looking at sharemarket stuff. Was interested to read here this morning that some have received Email notification that their applications have been unsuccessful)
I read the TM prospectus. They are looking for 'growth' opportunities, but didn't name them. As a 'weightless' business with a great brand and low overheads, I'm not sure why they need access to equity capital. Obviously Fairfax is in dire straits and needs the cash, they've actually done quite well with their dividends and this sale meaning TM will be now free carried for them.
My question for TME investors, is where will the growth come from in a mature market, so why will your shares appreciate? As mentioned the div yield is sub par at $2.70…
The stags will be roaring next week!
Mr D
The oversubscriptions and strong interest in TME suggest to me that simple supply and demand will drive the listing price above $2.70 (provided markets don't explode during tonight's Euro mtg).
I think there is plenty of room for TME to grow even if it's primary used-goods auction platform approches maturity. eg, online advertising, more businesses selling new goods under TME's platform, growing Treat Me and it's Travel offerings.
The forecast dividend yield is 5.1% net or 7.1% gross over the next 12 months (13.8c/270c/72% fully imputed). I would have thought that yield is about average for listed NZ stocks and certainly better then bank deposit rates.
CJ - My understanding is that investors could still be subject to scaling even if your full amount has been direct debited from your account.
You can check your TME allocations on the Link Market Services website now...
https://investorcentre.linkmarketser...gin.aspx/Login
Was given the full allocation I applied for.
Here's hoping for a steady opening tomorrow.
Yes, ta for the link.
I also got all I applied for. Thought there may have been scaling after hearing some people got none.
As for people being turned down, thats more an allocation issue which would have been determined at the time of the bookbuild/price setting. i.e. smaller and regional brokers bid low prices, so got less firm allocation.
I'm hearing the big boys who pumped it and went all in at 2.70 without buyers behind them have been offering it back out frantically this week........beware the P&D is all I can say
disc: none
Trading of TME starts at 12pm apparently.
dont you just love the informed, deeply researched article on STUFF posted at 10.11am:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-little-action
Only after saying there had been "little action at the open" LOL......they pulled that story and finally got it right about the noon commencement of trading at 10.20am.