Just to say that though I took over this years contest, I have no intention of being involved in the organisation of, administration of, or execution of a contest for 2018.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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Just to say that though I took over this years contest, I have no intention of being involved in the organisation of, administration of, or execution of a contest for 2018.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Was it a bit tough Mr. Tiger?
who is 'they'?
Thanks PTiger for taking this on when ? went M I A. Maybe we could keep track of our own entries next year.
For the Puddy Tat:
No.
For the local branch of the grammar police:
Obviously I meant they're or maybe their or could be there?
For the Yucca brevifolia:
The ? is klid.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Maybe we could do a monthly update or something, rather than live daily updates.
Very kind of the Puddy Tat to take over this years one considering he has expended considerable efforts with wearing his paw pads out running previous ones.
The resident stripy one deserves a nice break basking in the sun.
Maybe those interested in participating in 2018 could DIY and simply post their selections and update their own performance quarterly ?
I'm quite happy to help co-ordinate if need be...perhaps with the bigger feline's (ie, tiger's) support. Question for PT though - what tool do you use to store the picks, and update prices/dividends?
If its a live feed (or even semi-automated) and updated monthly, feel sure I could keep up with this...
Between mid December and the end of next August I will be permanently on the road and not offering support.
I download & parse end of day & dividend data from my data suppliers using php running in cron jobs on the papertiger.asia web-server and these store the results in a MySQL database, which also contains tables of entrants and their choices.
A further php cron job uses all this data to create the results tables which are then served as a web-page on demand by yet another php script.
When it works as it should, it is great and no hassle;
When it goes wrong, it really goes wrong!
https://d1ejxu6vysztl5.cloudfront.ne...2017-11-11.gif
https://garfield.com/comic/2017/11/11
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Ok PT, all good.
Will do a quick bit of research around how your process works, and see if I can make it nice n easy for me to run.
Will see if I can stand something up by the end of 1st week December (or at least let you know if I can't)
Just wanted to say a BIG thank you and appreciation to Paper Tiger for rescuing this competition. Also a big thanks to Kild for his/her excellent work.
I hope a way can be found for this competition to continue and can't help thinking an approach NZX or NZSA for sponsorship or assistance to run the comp could be worthwhile. Surely it has the potential to be a good promotional tool for them?
If I had the skills I would be in, but as I don't I hope Sylvester Cat's kind offer comes good.
Hi all...I think I can make this work. I've built something that scrapes Yahoo Finance, so we should be able to get daily updates.
Will try to render it via a protected Excel sheet or webpage somehow, so you can query your own results, without being able to delete/modify data!
But just want to get some views on what the rules should be, so we're all on the same page.
1) Rights Issues - what happens here? Do we account for the investment in rights (ie, reduction of capital), but then account for gains afterwards?
2) Dividends - all based off ex date?
3) If a stock is not traded on a particular day, do we take the last traded price as the price?
4) Your picks - shall we say, 5 stocks with a weighting of your choosing? or do we go more than that?
5) Do we include or exclude ETF's?
Bound to be other issues, lets throw them out there and see what the consensus is.
Thoughts very welcome.
Hi Sylvestor
Just thought i'd add an FYI. Sharesight has a number of API's that allow access to portfolio information. A portfolio could be set up that includes every stock. Far cheaper than NZX feeds. The data returned is arguably richer and more robust than a page scrape. However, a portfolio of that size not free of course - $25 / month :) - for sure, a page scrape is probably sufficient for the needs of this comp.
Disc: no affiliation to Sharesight, just sharing some info
Hi, Sharesight here - We'll be running our own stock picking comp again in 2018 - (as we did in 2017 https://www.sharesight.com/blog/2017...g-competition/ ) - we'll announce our own competition for next year in the coming weeks.
But we can certainly look at helping you out with your own comp here - Send our team an email at marketing@sharesight.com with what you'd like to do, and we'll see what we can do.
Hi all...
Right! Either way, there will be a picks competition for 2018! I have to start this an old-fashioned way given time constraints, but should be able to sweep it up as we go thru the year.
Email your picks to...
sylvestercat2018@gmail.com
OR
private message me on sharetrader
Please make sure you include your sharetrader username. Happy to include people NOT on sharetrader, but will need an email address. i will obviously not share email addresses.
1) Pick FIVE NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ)
2) Feel free to choose your weighting of those 5 shares
3) Picks in by 11pm December 29th 2017 (New Zealand time)
Returns calculations
1) Each will start with a notional portfolio of $10,000
2) Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2017 (which i think is the 29th) to the last closing price of 2018.
3) Its a 'total return' comp, so Dividends will be included - but NOT benefits from imputation credits or other tax-specific benefits.
4) Rights issues, and the money to take them up WILL be included - but will be treated as an increased investment pro-rata according to the amount of the year left.
5) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.
Before we go snap on those rules...is there any discussion / questions / changes people want to make...???
Great news that you are willing (and able) to pick up this competition for 2018. Nice to see Sharesite also willing to assist.
My only comment is that as I understand it, in the past for reasons of simplicity, there has been equal weighting to all 5 picks.
I suggest for simplicity (AND your ease of management) that Equal weighting to all 5 picks apply for 2018.
I’m sure other posters will correct me if I’m wrong..... this just MHO.
Once again sincere thanks for the work ahead of you. And thanks to Paper Tiger and others for their assistance in the past.
What do others think? Quite happy to have different weightings, not too hard to manage, but open to consensus.
Will probably run it thru my own tool, as have got a good way if doing it that will let you do your own reporting as well. Will get a website link up here shortly, which will also let you submit that way.
Have to say tho - Sharesight did come back to me with an option to support this years picks comp, and full credit to them - its a great website, with some excellent functionality.
Ok, will find them in that thread and re-post accordingly.
SC Here's the 2017 rules FYI....
The rules,
- Entries are made and are able to be subsequently modified by using the entry form on this site, and/or by posting in this thread.
- Entries will close on Monday, 9th January 2016 at 9:00am.
- Only one entry in each yearly competition is permitted per person.
- You may not use the alias that belongs to someone else on sharetrader.co.nz, or misrepresent another person.
- Five selections must be made, the same stock cannot be selected twice. The entry form will enforce this.
- There is a predefined list of stocks to select from, which will be those that are listed on the NZSX or NZAX and with a market capitalisation of at least $10 million as at 1st December 2016.
- Everyone has the same entry price, that will be the closing price of the stock on the last day of trading before the competiton begins- this will be the close price on Friday 6th January 2017.
- Competition closes with last traded prices on the last trading day in the 2016 calendar year.
- Dividends will be incorporated, rights issues will not. Any other random distributions will be incorporated, at the discretion of the contest administrator.
- If a selection delists or otherwise somehow disolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this.
Okay - but there will be different link to a different form, obviously!! - so please don't use the one posted by leftfield above :).
So...try this.
1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ). Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $10m may not be selected.
2) Each pick has an equal weighting.
3) Picks in by 11pm December 29th 2017 (New Zealand time)
4) You may not use the alias that belongs to someone else on sharetrader.co.nz, or misrepresent another person.
Returns calculations
1) Each will start with a notional portfolio of $10,000
2) Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2017 (which i think is Dec 29th 2017) to the last closing price of 2018.
3) Its a 'total return' comp, so Dividends will be included - but NOT benefits from imputation credits or other tax-specific benefits.
4) Rights issues are included according to the 'Snoopy Formula'. This does not increase capital, but recognises a capital gain/loss on the rights for the year.
5) If a selection delists or otherwise somehow dissolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this.
6) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.
There are THREE ways to enter:
1) via this survey form: https://1drv.ms/xs/s!AuUMI8ycnlsfhcJI7b9trJ43BUzuVg
2) email to sylvestercat2018@gmail.com
3) private message on sharetrader
I won't publish what people are picking before Dec 29th.
Hope this is all good!!
The reason of the min $10mill cap is one of volatility. Penny stocks and Penny Dreadful stocks can swing wildly (and very frequently) based on small changes in business dynamics and market sentiment. It can easily dwarf the percentage gains made (and lost) by more 'regular' stocks.
I encourage you to keep the stock-mkt-cap-must-be-over-$10mill-at-the-start-date rule, or risk a fair amount of complaining later on in the piece. I understand the rule was bought in for good reason many years ago.
By way of example, the majority of the nzx and asx top daily gainers and daily decliners (on the few occasions I have looked at these) are stocks that go up and down by a minuscule amount (mostly less than 1 cent if I recall correctly.. especially on the asx) on the day.
Vetting out the stocks under $10mill is not onerous (pretty much a one-off task) from an administrative viewpoint.
Vaygor, that would put the following stocks as exclusions. Looking at their charts, they don't appear any more or less volatile than most others, with the possible exception of the meteoric rise of Chow Group (on thin trading). There are some real beacons of NZ corporate management on that list :t_up:.
I guess I'm of the view that it makes no difference - if someone is brave enough to pick them, good luck to them. High risk high return and all that. But I hadn't realised the competition had gone on for years - thought it was just a 2017 thing. I have no baggage around it, so quite happy to go with consensus. Can people reply to this post with their thoughts please?
Chow Group CGL.NZX 9.87M
GeoOP GEO.NZX 9.73M
CSM Ltd CSM.NZX 8.29M
Chatham Rock CRP.NZX 6.68M
AFC AFC.NZX 3.66M
NZFGROUP BGI.NZX 3.52M
VERITAS VIL.NZX 2.77M
TRSINVEST TRS.NZX 2.43M
AORERE AOR.NZX 1.48M
Snakk SNK.NZX 1.46M
Mykco MYK.NZX 1.18M
ENERGY MAD MAD.NZX 590K
WINDFLOW WTL.NZX 386K
Links to previous results:
2015
https://stocktastic.co.nz/rankings/2015
2016
https://stocktastic.co.nz/rankings/2016
I've been a member since 2012 and as far as I recall the comp was running at least 1 year (if not 5 or more) before I joined.
In response SylvesterCat, I dont think it is the volatility over the long term or even the short term that is the issue. It is the extremely short term, whereby somebody who is in front on 1 day finds themselves in place 50 the next and vice versa a few days later. The winner can become even more of a random selection at the mercy of the cut-off date than is already the case.
Paper Tiger - can you shed any further light on this and recall why this rule was ever introduced?
just took a snapshot of this mornings NZX biggest %age gainers and decliners.....
Attachment 9311
6/10 of them up or down by 1 cent or less. The top 2 in each category being fractions of cent up or down.
It's like this virtually every time I've ever looked at this on the NZX and ASX.
I will completely respect whatever your decision may be SylvesterCat. Just trying to help.
Thank you SylvesterCat for taking up the challenge of running this competition.
I do however believe that a rights issue needs to be taken into account somehow as the head share price is affected by such issue. Perhaps it could be covered by deducting the the cost of the right from the ex right price of the head share and calling it a cash dividend.
I would be interested on what others think.
In my original thinking, I'd thought about treating rights as an increased investment (pro-rata-ed appropriately for time remaining), but then obviously getting extra 'shares'.
Quite happy to do this.
Also happy either way on whether we exclude shares with market cap <$10m.
This cat doesn't need to think for himself in this case, quite happy to adopt the consensus view. In fact - someone tell me how to set up a poll on this forum, and I will do exactly that!
Also - I am getting some picks come through with XRO in them.
Quite okay to accept these - but may not be a good option, as it will delist. Essentially, the "investment" will be sold at the time of delisting, and accrue no further growth.
So if you've picked XRO, feel free to submit again - or not, as the case may be...
Hi SylvesterCat
Tried to enter my picks via the survey form on the one-drive method at https://1drv.ms/xs/s!AuUMI8ycnlsfhcJI7b9trJ43BUzuVg
Can't find CDI on the pick lists. Can you please add it to the picks if its not too much trouble?
Vaygor1.
PLX also missing from the list?
Would you please include IKE.
Market cap $23.5 mil.
Just thought I'd give a "sample" as to how I'll report the results.
1) The first output will be a link to an excel sheet, that will look something like the picture below. It will let you "find yourself" and show you your overall ranking and performance. If you don't have excel, will put it in a pdf format as well.
Attachment 9325
2) I'll also hope to produce a link to a sheet (excel only at this stage), that will let you see the more detailed breakdown of your performance. Like this picture...
Attachment 9326
Hope this makes sense.
Hi SylvesterCat. Thanks very much for doing this.
Would you please add FFW. Market cap. 77.8m
Cheers
Definitely not a pest Scotty. I will sort first thing in the morning.
NOW ADDED!
Hi guys, sorry I've been very busy making things and going places and it suddenly occurred to me that the end of the year is approaching.
Should I update the site for 2018? If someone has already been collecting picks and this is desired I could enable them to assist me putting them into the system or they can give me the details.
Someone please let me know, I will check this later and if so should get some time to do some things :)
Well onto it klid, if you read back over this thread, you'll see the instructions for how to submit.
I should add that I'm aware you ran the comp last year, and i simply stepped in to help when it was uncertain whether you were available to do it this year. I've now also built some models/inputs to support this, so not really keen to lose that work.
Just a reminder - around 40 entries so far, there's loads more of you out there!!
1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ). Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $10m may not be selected.
2) Each pick has an equal weighting.
3) Picks in by 11pm December 29th 2017 (New Zealand time)
4) You may not use the alias that belongs to someone else on sharetrader.co.nz, or misrepresent another person.
Returns calculations
1) Each will start with a notional portfolio of $10,000
2) Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2017 (which i think is Dec 29th 2017) to the last closing price of 2018.
3) Its a 'total return' comp, so Dividends will be included - but NOT benefits from imputation credits or other tax-specific benefits.
4) Rights issues are included according to the 'Snoopy Formula'. This does not increase capital, but recognises a capital gain/loss on the rights for the year.
5) If a selection delists or otherwise somehow dissolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this.
6) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.
There are THREE ways to enter:
1) via this survey form: https://1drv.ms/xs/s!AuUMI8ycnlsfhcJI7b9trJ43BUzuVg
2) email to sylvestercat2018@gmail.com
3) private message on sharetrader
I won't publish what people are picking before Dec 29th.
Hope this is all good!!
Hi could you please add NWF to the survey options (mcap ~40m) cheers! :)
Hi all...well, my cat sized brain has manage to produce to produce the following website to display the output from our efforts.
This is full of "test picks" at the moment, although the returns data is accurate.
Take a look, and see what you think.
The sample weblink displays returns from Oct 2nd to Dec 17th. There are TWO pages to look at...you'll get the idea.
https://sites.google.com/view/sharet...icks-2018/home
During the comp, I will update results at least weekly. While I've automated it the best I can, there's still small amount of manual effort required.
Looks v impressive SCat! :t_up: Well done.
Glad to see that you are OK klid. A lot of members go MIA from these boards.
Hi SC
I get this when trying from work - might be our settings not letting it thru - will try again from home
Seeing the "menu" etc but not the data/results part of the page(s)
There is a problem connecting securely to this website.
The security certificate presented by this website was not issued by a trusted certificate authority.
Security certificate problems may indicate an attempt to fool you or intercept any data you send to the server.
WDT not on list 38m cap
Will add WDT first thing in morning.
NOW ADDED
Yes it does SC
Good work.
Merry Christmas all...
62 entries so far...can see the participant list here: https://sites.google.com/view/sharet...8/participants
Don't forget to get them in!! The form seems to have worked ok, but if you have issues simply email sylvestercat2018@gmail.com.
Note that I have now included RAK and BLT on the form!
Hey can VGL please be added to the list?
VGL now added!!
Hi all - remember, a couple of days to go to enter!
We have 91 entries at the moment, so hoping for a rush in the last couple of days...
Thanks S..Cat for this comp. Have just entered my picks for 2018, did you receive them? I will be happy to make between 10% and 20% on these picks, but don't think I will get anywhere near the gains on the last years picks. Thanks again and cheers for the New Years:cool:.
Definitely got them sea weed!!
Have we got the broker picks for 2018 sorted ?
Does XRO still qualify as a NZX pick?
1) XRO - you can pick itt, but once it delists in January there's no further growth (ie, you'll be "selling" the shares for cash on that day). So not really in your interests to pick.
2) Broker picks...no - how did klid do this in previous years - a simple phone call :-)?
Up to 100 entries now...
Yes, i probably shouldn't have put it in. Trap for ypung kittens. I have been contacting the few people who picked it...and most have got back to me.
Got it greater fool!! And MCK definitely ok...will add shortly.
Special request SylvesterCat. Can you please in the next few days list the ten most picked stocks by ST members in the competition in order of popularity.
This might be helpful for anyone tempted to have a few bob in each as a way to tap into the collective intelligence of this investment community and to boost the diversification of their existing portfolio.
One could even be tempted to have 10X invested in the most popular stock, 9X in the second most popular e.t.c. regardless of whether one already holds the stock. X = whatever $ amount makes it interesting for the investor concerned. Might make for an interesting experiment for 2018 to see if such a portfolio did well.
One could also invest for example 5X in any stock picked more than once by a broking house if it was different to the above ten stocks as a further way of achieving portfolio diversification.
Although I am sure we all like to think we have all our bases covered already on the NZX, in my opinion it is good for the soul to admit it is not humanly possible to have a mortgage on all the good investment idea's on the NZX and to accept that there is merit in a diversification of idea's which is why of course boards of directors are made up of more than one person :)
Good idea Mr Beagle .....good thinking mate, no wonder some call you a guru
I think the top 5 in 2017 would have doubled your money (on a equal weighting) by having five solid companies in such a portfolio
That's pretty good seeing that speculative stocks like Serko and Pushpay weren't in the top 5
Hi SC, Any chance of listing MHJ to the list?
Cheers
You're FAR too kind mate but I can't take credit for such an idea. Some other Winner had that idea first :)...all I did was tweak the formula a little.
Thanks mate and thanks again for putting your paws up to run this competition.
1) Quick update: 116 entries so far, still a long way shy of last year. Can still enter if you wish - in the interests of fairness, will accept entries up until January 2nd (since first trading day is the 3rd). The mighty Thor - god of 2017 - has indeed submitted his/her entry :). Enter by a private message on sharetrader, emailing sylvestercat2018@gmail.com or via the survey link here.
2) The entry list so far can be seen at this link - will keep the picks hidden until entries close. There will be pages showing share performance and "popular picks" added to the site.
3) Have rung a couple of brokers today, they have indicated they'll get back to me, but also intimated they had spoken with the NZ Herald, so should be in an article any day now.
Big learning for me has been to get the list correct up front - thanks for your patience as I've added to the list with your help.
Thanks for your work this year. And also to klid and PT and others who have put in work over the past 12 months. This is a good bit of light-hearted competition. All good fun and I'm glad that it's continuing.
I'm just getting my entry ready and it should be sent via the survey soon.
You are definitely in 777. Will update soon...
Could you let shrewd crude in with 5 crypto picks, that would be interesting
Hi Sylvester
Thanks for the time extension - I've just lodged my picks via the link.
Thanks also for running the competition this year. Pity the wheel has to be re-invented and that you couldn't capitalise on Klid's earlier work.
Another thought too - why doesn't STMOD run the annual competition - be good to get something productive from him instead of wrist slapping ( just saying - please don't ban me sir!).
A great idea about the top ten picks from Beagle. Will be interesting to monitor how that portfolio goes over the next 12 months.
Happy New Year and best wishes for profitable investing in 2018 to all ST members.
Bon chance
Pierre
Thanks Pierre.
klid did some great work -- but the method he used was shut off by Google during August 2017. I do wish I had his/her web skills though!! Hopefully we can work together on it at one point.
To all: please check the opening prices of the shares at this link. It will update with performance figures as the year unfolds.
Brokers Picks for 2018...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11962632
Thanks Deej.
- Broker Picks now included - except Vulcan Capital for picking a stock that doesn't exist yet.
- 132 entrants as of now.
Finzsoft FIN?
It should already be there...but will add tomorrow morning if it isn't. Sorry about that...
Update: FIN now added
145 participants as of this morning.
NZM and TTK ?
Entries closed...full list is shown at this link.
Good luck to you all!!
We finished with 156 entries, plus 6 broker picks.
I'll also put the most popular picks on the website shortly.
Mr Beagle, Looks like it might be a bit of a race. You picked SUM and me pick HBL. Lets all sing 'Now Is The Hour':D.
Good luck for 2018. Last year was pretty close. Anything over 10% gain is good in my books, better than 3% in the bank. Am more than happy with my true portfolio and surprised it went up 58% including divs in the last year. Any one know where to view 2018 results, or do they update on a weekly basis? ps also got a 6k tax refund;).
Hi all...
This is the weblink that will be used to display returns. There's a page for summary results, individual results (with a graph comparing to NZX) and share performance.
https://sites.google.com/view/sharet...icks-2018/home
During the comp, I will update results at least weekly. While I've automated it the best I can, there's still small amount of manual effort required, so it won't be real time.
The update from yesterday is ticking away at the moment, so should publish within the next few minutes.
Mikey by Crikey leads us at the moment...with this particular puss in a creditable 5th place :-)