Right now markets are tumbling, and at some point there are going to be some cracking good bargains emerging. Which companies should be first on the shopping list?
Printable View
Right now markets are tumbling, and at some point there are going to be some cracking good bargains emerging. Which companies should be first on the shopping list?
Baked beans, pasta, tomato sauce and loo paper
too much uncertainty for me to gamble on buying anything , ill rather reduce all debt and make sure my cupboards are full
If things really looked like returning to normal any time soon, then the hardest hit sectors would be the ones to get into, and exporters that are going to gain from the lower $. But I haven't got a shopping list yet. Currently, my JPY is doing ok, probably get more of that before looking at shares.
Too early to tell. Making a call now is like saying I am going shopping next week at Countdown and Pak and Save and drawing up my shopping list now without knowing what's going to be on half price special.
What we can say with some degree of certainty is that if this gets really ugly, classic cyclical's are possibly going to head towards the bottom of their cycle. Any company with a weak balance sheet is very vulnerable. I would think stocks likely to be on half price special sometime later this year or 2021 might include, THL, AIR, SML and NZR. Of those with their current boards and management I would only buy AIR or THL at the right price.
Can we not keep bear market stuff on the bear market thread
and virus stuff on the virus thread.
Only Couta and Biscuit managed to stay on topic
Should a vaccine be found for the Corona Virus, I would expect Australian and NZ Govts will call on Ebos to distribute it.
Other than that, I would sit on the sidelines,until the market turns up.
I remember the day of 9/11 my portfolio fell $80,000.A month later it had recovered the $80,000 and then the following month it was up $80,000.
So only time will tell whether we are in a 1987,GFC or a 9/11 crash.
Companies that have the capacity to pay increasing fully imputed divies,should be the first to recover. [I note both HGH and PGW ,each are paying a cent higher divie than I expected].
The world will not end.
everyone has lol how can know what to buy and what companies to buy with any certainty when you dont know how long the virus is around or the end result of it. its all related. as percy says wait till they find a vaccine then your have certainty of business outcomes otherwise your just gambling
FPH, I know some will say PE too stretched, but it's always been stretched & too expensive, I remember several years ago even at around $6 it was considered way too expensive by many.
IMHO this is a massively SP changing event for them with their excellent respiratory devices & consumables for both hospitals and home care (no devices made in China) sold in over 120 countries.
I guess that PE will rapidly shrink this year anyway.
I like to make my list anyway and then check the mailer for the specials-anything not urgent on the list can wait another week, because sooner or later it will be on special...…..
I have quite a few names written down to watch, but SKC is near the top. It is the first stock I sold when things started to look a little serious and glad I did.
A lot of headwinds for it and I don't think it will be a bargain this week, but at some stage it should be a good buy again. Treated me well in the past.
Personally had just planned to buy back all my sold stocks at some point, but at this rate will have plenty left over.
It is probably too soon now,but like Grimy said it is good to have a list with price targets etc, as it helps to avoid those impulse (it looks cheap!!) buys.
Will Probably let the charts decide when the buys occur, TA normally comes into its own in times like this
Agree 100%. I just throw any FA out the window, its almost completely useless as in a real bear market one has no idea what the E is going to be. The risk with FA is one can be sorely tempted to get back in because it looks so cheap it must be a good buy...and then the bear just mauls you more and then some more for good measure.
My tactic will be for the market to tell me when my former stocks have been de-risked properly when they're in a new uptrend, whenever that might be and it might not be for quite some time, possibly not even till late 2021 or even 2022 and I've got to learn to be okay with that. (Hopefully this old dog can learn a new trick)
Buying a half sized position in ABC or XYZ when it breaks back up through the 30 day MA and the other half on a break back up through the 100 day MA to confirm the uptrend is going to be my "go too" TA methodology. Not sure what I am going to do with all my spare time not needing to bother with fundamental analysis for a while...I better get a new hobby lol
It does seem there is likely to be a constant dripping each day of bad stories as the virus spreads. So I think there will be a real chance of a miasma descending on the market with over-compensation for expected risks. I am not sure at this stage what to put on my watch list.
What a good idea for a thread, because it's something that's on all our minds.
One approach might be to list what's not on your list. Of course, it's all a matter of timing. Picking the lows and buying at the latest time before it's likely top stat going up.
I think SUM could be good after 9(?) months. I can't help wondering if they've suggested zero growth to emphasize the need to reneg deals with the govt... and rightly so.
ATM are expecting good things. Could be +50% if you pick the low correctly.
AIA and AIR have taken a pounding as they've been in the spotlight. Obvious future target.
Ports will be a nice item to pick up cheaply, as they're usually expensive.
MEL will be an interesting one to watch. A quick purchase post positive news on tiwai will do well, or picking the bottom of the oversell on negative news could be good if it drops enough to fairly represent a good PE.
M7T over on the ASX is looking interesting.
What's not on my shopping list, which usually is: SCL, SEK and a few others inc
FPH, which i have as too expensive. More than usual. While they might do well in the coming year, i expect the following year will dip. The coming year is already priced in, imo.
Picking up some soggy gutter butts with maybe a puff or two left
Cautiously buying in order of conviction:
NZR
TPW
MPG
TWR
STU
SKT
NZME
Some pretty ugly names in there but I imagine most will be around in a few years and should be worth more than they are priced at the moment.
Similar to my strategy.
Careful choice and timing.Being bold when other are fearful . and
Not buying at the moment-I am very wary of catching falling knives and will take my last NZX order off today-its a stock which I had reasoned will have cheaper costs because of covid-19 but as beagle says fundamentals do not matter too much-at least until people start buying.
Would also like to buy back into MEL and possibly AIR.
FPH will be watched closely.CDC have just announced some small changes in causes mortality.Deaths due to influenza/pneumonia are increasing.Small increase in life expectancy.Women will live 5 years longer than men-growing market for FPH and trusted products.
Great article from Mr. Buffett. Buying good companies is always a good idea. Buying ATM, Mainfreight, and other solid companies like that right now. It's like finding a gem in the discount rack at the store. These stocks will UNDOUBTEDLY return to their former highs. It doesn't have to be today or even this year. Personally I'm willing to wait.
https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/warren-buffett-stock-market-advice-coronavirus-value-investing.html
"People would be better off if they say, 'I bought a business today,' not 'a stock today,' because that gives you a different perspective," he explained. "Presumably if you buy a farm, if you buy an apartment house, if you buy a business you're going to own for 10 or 20 or 30 years, then the real question is: Has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American business changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours? You don't buy or sell your business based on today's headlines."
come on guys...the brave one will be rewarded!!!!
Mel, sum, cen, air
Stocks I want to own post recession price target current Diff invest $$ cen 5 6.58 24% 30 BIN 2 2.7 26% 10 scales 3 4.2 29% 20 TNR 1.5 2.2 32% 10 mel 3 4.49 33% 30 A2M 10 15 33% 20 aia 5 7.69 35% 20 mcy 3 4.65 35% 40 pot 4 6.35 37% 20 SKC 2 3.2 38% 20 NPH 2 3.2 38% 20 fletcher 3 5 40% 10 sum 4 6.8 41% 15 sanford 4 7.1 44% 20 mft 20 36 44% 20 ARV 1 1.8 44% 5 HLG 2.5 5 50% 5 SSG 0.3 0.66 55% 5 kina 0.5 1.3 62% 10 330
so need some pretty rough declines to see any of these purchases.
reckon nph, scales and hlg will be my first buys
Well, Im buying Westpac, The have dropped 10% in last few days, and AMP dropping like a stone. Except I am fast coming to the maximum I will invest in the Markets of $270,000, so I will wait a week before I make my final purchases, then I will just have to sit tight and grin and bear any further drops. I figure if the market crashes a lot more, cash wont be worth holding either so no matter what you invest in you will lose. I was going to buy another house, but I have this feeling as the economy turns to custard, house prices will come down quite dramatically, and with inflation moving, interest rates will go up, just making the whole s****box even worse. But I'm not panicking.
I still like Ebos for the same reasons, but now even more because its medical stuff. How good is that , strong demand, of course supply chain might be a risk but same for everyone.
Its still not cheap tho. so always the premium for quality. yield not great either sadly. but not less than a TD.
They must have been distributing much more medical supplies than normal, they are the only NZ stock I did not sell out of. Even the pet food side etc should be doing well, especislly with all the advice for people to stock up on Pet food. I am comfortable holding through some short term dips
What is the best source of free charts these days for NZ shares?
damm it.,...too busy with work this morning.....missed the sales...ahhghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) :) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)
MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.
Wow beagle......juicy as...but will it happens? Bet the market will bounce tomorrow and all time high again...
Dead Cat bounce market tomorrow...even the resident snow cat probably wary of that and the bear will come back later in the week and do plenty more mauling, you mark my words. Image of Couta after last week and today's attack. https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...t=0&vt=0&eim=1
Not too fast....imo...the boss said will cut the interest rate ...tax cut n free money.i want it!!!!!!
Plexure and Serko. Both amazing growth stories that are finally materiAlizing
The two stocks that always do well at the bottom of recessions or market slumps.(THL,RBD)
ATM
THL
RBD and go heavy.
Im staying well away from perceived "bargains" on this weighing machine for some time , falling knives, FOMO,FOMI, Lust and greed, volatility , why tempt ones discipline?.The memory of long ago being burnt jumping onto a sucker rally, but who knows, how long is a piece of string; twice the radius when held in the middle.
XRO is up 1.3% today PE 5290 according to ASB.
With age comes wisdom and perspective eh JT :) A lot of the young ones on here wouldn't know anything other than a bull market so an 8% dip seems like its dished up some incredible bargains. Fact is we've only wiped off just on one quarter of 2019's exuberance, let alone the fact that the market metrics were already really stretched at the start of 2019...this thing hasn't even really started yet. Its going to be a long and boring wait for the real bargains to materialise...might have to get a new hobby and subscribe to Netflix again.:sleep: :sleep:
Well beagle...u might be wrong. ..the market might bounce back.... proven u were wrong with your darling SUM .....hahha
HLG ..? possibly
I am monitoring ATM, MFT, FPH, EBO,AIA, SKC, HGH, PGW, SEK, AIR, HLG and the gentailers. No intention of buying anything for a few months at this stage though
Good bounce back today. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119...es-its-jitters
Dead cat bounce?
Has to be surely, unless the virus fizzles out. China slowly going back to work, but if you jump in now you have to believe there will be no Pandemic, and that is looking increasingly unlikely. Could be last chance to escape the market, although it could carry on another day or Two I guess. A lot of relief in this rally but it could be built on straw
If you believe that RBNZ will cut the OCR and that the economy faces more challenges in the future then it would be hard to look past dividend paying counter-cyclicals. :)
Started to buy IFT yesterday. Out of Cash.
Looking increasingly like toilet paper could be a good investment :t_up:
There was a run on toilet and tissue paper here in HK. The shops were fully restocked within a week of the initial run and have remained so since.
Current indications are that China is slowly returning to normal as the number of new cases continues to decline. HK is also resuming some things that were shut when there was fear of this turning into a full blow pandemic.
I got my buys in at the market low on Monday around lunchtime....got my list filled at basement prices...needless to say, up just over 7% in 2 days....however, I am not planning on holding AIR, that was just a very nice wee fill so I may take my profits on it and enjoy the wee bonus. For me, I have bought into the impact of COVID-19 but not the panic (which far exceeds SARS) and even the market panic following 9/11 and the anthrax scares....so I am off to wash my hands with warm soapy water, cover my sneezes and coughs, and shake ankles...the hop on a discount flight to somewhere (and NOT flying Qantas - have you seen how dirty their aircraft are....I was shocked on my recent trip - just days before Corona took a turn for the adventurous).
I will be looking out for good prices on ports (AIA POT SPN), horticulture (SEK FWL TGG) and aged/child care (ARV OCA EVO).
Like the idea of POT, SEK, ARV, OCA, HGH, PLX, NWF, NZX, AIA, RBD, a few others with signs of good dividend and future growth potential.
My thoughts are to a less than favourable end to March with a substantial increase in cases, sanctions and locked travel options.
Going to be nice and uncertain for some time to come.
I think the CoronaVirus may affect the economy too... ⚖🔥🔥
Sounds reassuring
If you are considering buying stocks for holding anytime soon then you need some serious medication and probably shouldnt be managing your own portfolio.... even day trading isnt ideal....
...
There's a deep and sharp bear on the cards here...
All the companies are overvalued on price to earnings....
The World is riddled with debt which has given us the false premise of natural growth....
Coronavirus will shake many industries some to the core...
When one person is getting infected whole companies, and schools and events are being shut down...
Daegu a city of 2.5million was locked down on 60 cases...
...
Trying to catch the bottom is like delivering and uppercut to yourself... far better to see it come off the bottom pay a tiny more and get on the new trend...
My best estimate is somewhere around 15,000 to 18,000 on the DOW....
:cool:
.^sc
lol cadalac,
I havnt owned shares for years and years...
Crypto buzz....
:cool:
.^sc
Soooo... Which are the goods one again? Lol
Time to go shopping today I think for a portion of my shopping list
Keep an eye on XERO going to $1
Cadalac said in an earlier post he, secretly loves topping up on all your stuff while everyone selling off at a discount.
So intentions are pretty clear unless he's just being humorous.
Should never ever try & encourage fear & panic for own gain, esp since it's often the elderly & sick who are most vulnerable to panic selling, but some people seem to think anything goes.
Im joking clearly, just doing what winner69 does on every thread
Keeping my eye on:
RBD Fastfood companies typically do ok during recessions and before the recent drop it was gangbusters.
MFT Once the borders freeup after the virus, there’ll be a surge in transportation needs to recoup low stock-levels worldwide.
XRO
MFF (on the ASX) invested in high-quality U.S. companies
I got miniscule fills at the bottom for a couple of shares and now we seem to be recovering? Not to worried, many more weeks of this I suspect and only bidding part of my capital.
Which stocks do you guys think will benefit the most out of this coronavirus situation?
Two I can think of now are FPH and EBO.
FPH have already lifted guidance a few weeks back - from $255-265m to $260-270m, but are they still too overvalued at $26?
EBO have alot of different businesses in healthcare space. Which parts of EBO stand to benefit most? And which parts will be impacted?
thanks for requoting Beagle.
I have been thinking about starting to nibble as the market falls hard however the prices quoted above are much lower than I would have thought likely so that gives me pause for thought.
I see it more as leaning against the wind rather than being all in or all out. Buying slowly , judiciously on the way down and sticking to quality , and then the cycle changes and eventually things get exuberant again and selling into that
Benjamin Graham reckoned one should never have less than 25% in equities and no more than 75%. And to move from one to other as the cycle revolved. Probably easier to say than do. But not that hard to know when prices are high and prices are low?? I still have my doubts they will go down to Beagles levels but would be a buyer down there of course. And before too , but not so many.
Ebos need to be on the list. At say $15 I guess but not sure it will go anywhere near that.
Never since the great depression of 1929 have US markets gone from Bull to Bear at this great speed. Just 19 days for the Dow to go 20%+ down !
Not impressive enough ? how about the ASX down a whopping 26+% in just 3 weeks !
If we get community spread and lockdown in N.Z. in my opinion the ugly stick is going to bash everything on the NZX.
Multiples could come back substantially for all stocks, that's simply what bear markets do. Don't overlook the possibility of another great depression either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
Couta is different...money means nothing. He is loaded...so bear does not apply to him
Don't forget at the first sign of an effective medication (possibly v soon) or a vaccine ( within 12-18 month) sentiment will reverse just as quickly & fortunes will be made.
The advances being made in both these areas are happening at record breaking speed with never before seen levels of scientific resources & collaboration being poured into solving this.
IP is being shared or even ignored in the race to develop medication & a vaccine & trials already underway in China with Remdesivir which looks promising.
Deeper and deeper folks;)
talking about coutas hole and his inability to confess his error, admit it and then learn from it , a golden opportunity gone begging, sa la vie.
According Chris Lee, he thinks his clients have on an average of about $200K invested.
Obviously that means they should be managing their portfolio is a very prudent manner as they don't have the capability to withstand severe shocks to their financial wellbeing.
Ironically I bet that New Zealand is in for a very mild flu season given the extraordinary Coronavirus precautions people are taking and the fairly low mortality so far of Coronavirus vs common flu. Could Coronavirus be net good for NZs public health? Either way economic impact is looking increasingly large which I’m sure is front of mind for most of us.
Starting to get into range with some of my target stocks for the dream portfolio to bottom drawer and hold.
Wondering if I need to reconsider some of these target prices...:scared:
Stocks I want to own post recession price target current Diff A2M 12 13.95 14% cen 5 5.99 17% mft 25 30 17% mcy 3.5 4.2 17% osh 2.5 3.06 18% SKC 2 2.6 23% wpl 15 19.53 23% twe 7 9.16 24% ARV 1 1.31 24% SCL 3 4.02 25% NPH 2 2.79 28% BIN 1.7 2.46 31% TRA 1.5 2.19 32% sum 4 5.9 32% mel 3 4.49 33% sanford 4 6.3 37% pot 4 6.35 37% aia 4.5 7.69 41% SSG 0.3 0.58 48% ksl 0.5 1.04 52%
Well OCA is the first to hit its price...