A headline in today's AFR states "NZ King Salmon headed for dual listing".
Any further info on this?
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A headline in today's AFR states "NZ King Salmon headed for dual listing".
Any further info on this?
Thanks, Balance. Will await developments.
:)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11670338
$95.1M ($1.5) in 2014
Not for me. Rising ocean temperatures and toxic algae blooms = dead salmon. Better off with Tegal imo.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-e...as-kill-salmon
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...llions-of-fish
Early days for the IPO, surely will be sharply priced with existing shareholders looking to reduce.
Looking at the risks, are the environmental risks being overplayed?? Not just the activism and damage to environment etc. but does the rising water temp and licensing really impact the going concern of the business? Unsure how to price this in at this stage.
Isnt this a rehash of a former IPO from 15 years back?
Way back when I last loooked at salmon I understood international market prices were held back by the determination of the Norwegian Government spending their vast oil revenues to make certain their salmon farmers were never beaten on price.
Is this still the case?
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
I heard that the best salmon in the world is grown in the cool, deep waters of the Marlborough Sounds, New Zealand. Did anybody study their balance sheet?
Hmm
I recall NZ Salmon, crashed spectacularly in 1987. Not for me thanks, too many risks.. disease.. oversupply etc
Beware a venture capital company exiting...
I was looking at a broker's report on ASX listed Ridley and noted the following:
"RICexpects further volume pressure from salmon in FY17, implying another year inwhich aquaculture is a headwind;"
I will look but don't expect to be a starter.
http://www.shareoffer.co.nz/newzealandkingsalmon
Far beyond investment grade quality, maybe BB-ish.
Looks like Tegel has more opportunity with NZ's population growth, export growth, and less environmental/social risk than NZKS.
John Ryder is the chairman.. can't be that bad...
Tend to agree with you.
Couple of reasons :
1. Direct Capital has been in NZKS now for 8 years as they bought in 2008 for around $50m. Private equity usually exits between 3 to 5 years. Something suggests that the investment has not gone as well and to plan as they expected. Looks like the growth and expansion they were looking for have not happened.
2. $30m to be raised for capital upgrade and development is bugger all for the two shareholders - presumably they will be very happy to put in that kind of money if the returns are going to be there. Instead they are looking to exit if enough interest through this 'priority offer' is shown?
Thanks to other posters for their views on this one. I'll be staying clear and watching from the sidelines.
To put things in perspective for their 3 new farms
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...-plug-on-China
Didn't know the cap on supply was that low. A shame how barriers and high demand have outweighed the benefits of exporting. I would have thought a joint approach with other NZ salmon farmers would have been goer rather than just putting it in the hard basket.
Really interesting how companies approach exporting to China. Such large barriers getting in compared to other countries, hard not to be irritated given the ease going the other direction.
NZ exports to China have grown by billions of dollars since FTA - no complaints from the exporters.
A lot of complaints from those who are hell bent on wrecking NZ's economy for their political ends - namely Labour, Greens and NZ First, as well as competitors to China imports however. And all too easy to use the race card to court the xenophobic economic insecure voters.
Meanwhile, don't believe everything you read about NZ salmon exports to China - they are making much much better money supplying to the domestic market, Japan and US. China is not a market which is prepared to pay top prices for NZ salmon vs the farmed salmon from Scotland, Chile and Norway.
Note to myself.....never touch anything to do with fish! Aquaria 21, Regal Salmon, SeaDragon.......
That Tassal in Australia seems to do OK
Haha - I actually made very good money out of my huge mistake putting money into Aquaria 21, courtesy of Eric Watson!
Aquaria 21 was heading for receivership until the backdoor boys started the rumours that Eric was going to use the company as a vehicle for 'Flying Pig'. Sp went up 50% and I gratefully exited to the backdoor boys and their followers who were pumping the sp up.
One very lucky escape and a very valuable lesson learnt.
If you happen to be in Nelson and want to learn more about the planned IPO - here is your opportunity:
Andrew Clark, CFO, NZ King Salmon Ltd, will be addressing NZSA members and others about the forthcoming IPO.
venue: Richmond Library, Nelson
date / time: 10 October, 10.30 am.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post637534
Now that the PDS is out, anyone have any further thoughts?
(I am quite liking what I see, but probably won't be jumping in due to cash constraints)
$1.12 - so it has been priced at the lower end - but not the bottom - of the range.
Looks like there will be some scaling :rolleyes: of allocations
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...tock-exchanges
The retired marine biologist has been a vocal critic of the company.
"It's illusory for King Salmon to think they can increase production when the waters are too warm in the Sounds to farm salmon.
"They've never managed to make it viable and it has never been as profitable as they have intended." :confused:
I thought there was something fishy about this ipo.
the offer is open and interesting to see Chinese SOE has a 10% stake and NZ super has a 5% stake.. looks a bit more promising than i thought... might dip my toes in for a small amount..
An interactive resource with prices for wet fish in various markets;
https://www.undercurrentnews.com/pri...ySalmonMonthly
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
A small group of share investors here in Nelson has arranged for Andrew Clark, CFO of King Salmon to give a presentation and answer questions. Held at Richmond Library at 10AM on Monday 10 October. All are welcome. Unfortunately I will be out of town so can't attend. Would be happy to forward any questions ?
Hi iceman at all, the meeting starts at 10.30: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post637534
Anyway - I won't be there (400 km too far away ...) but do have contacts to the organiser - i.e. if there is anything you want to know, than I am happy to forward questions and relay the answers.
As there is no public pool offer, I'll just get some when it's already listed as ASB Securities, who got my margin facility, told me they're not participating on this IPO.
GL to those IPO participants here.
Interesting development and opportunity.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...lar-snack-food
$1.15 listing today
To add something to this thread http://www.intrafish.com/aquaculture...715c-244768249
New product line for NZK http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/8730...nable-business
OK - I guess at some stage I need to admit it anyway ... bought some weeks back in and so far quite happy with the developing uptrend.
My reasons to buy in?
1) Met some months ago with John Ryder (he founded RYM and is chair of NZK). I like his investment and business philosophy (By the way - he wrote an outstanding book about investing: Global Investing: https://www.amazon.de/Global-Investi...obal+investing), and he stands not just fully behind this company (well, he would, wouldn't he?) but he has as well lots of skin in the game.
2) Fundamentals look quite healthy (PE 12.5, CAGR - above 10), they produce valuable protein (something the world is in need for), farming is less harsh to the environment than fishing (yes, I know, but it really is), and they do pay a sustainable dividend;
3) Board and management have lots of skin in the game - and pleased to note that the CEO just topped up his already sizeable holding (he put another nearly $50k into a more than $2m portfolio): https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/250976.pdf
4) Did I mention the moat? Salmon farming does requires some specialist knowledge ... and licenses in parts of the world suitable for salmon farming (as a starter you need clean cold water) are limited ...
5) And - ah yes, the share seems to be in a nice uptrend ...
Mmmmm smells fishy to me lol. Better hope they get consent before the election. Otherwise there's the risk that the Labour/Greens etc may not be as amenable as the current government i.e. less feed = less fish.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11792610
There is very strong and vocal opposition from several groups to King Salmon being in the Sounds, full stop. To me it would make perfect sense to move the farms further out where water flow is better but I suspect any applications by King Salmon will be strongly opposed and will end up going through a long and very expensive legal wrangle.
I don´t think they have much future in the Sounds.
That´s why I have not invested in KS but instead have invested in SAN who have their salmon business in Big Glory Bay of Stewart Island where they have reasonably good local support and a significant space for expansion.
Increased salmon farming can provide a significant exonomic benefit to NZ and the market for the product is there. There is no doubt in my mind that a Labour/Green Government would implement a moratorium on expansion as Labour did last time.
another biased, bad researched and hyped up Herold article ... I guess it is free, but not good. Just look at the dramatic language they use for a slight retraction of an amazing uptrend down to the MA30:
Is this really what the Herold scribe was seeing - a minor touch of the MA30 at no volume at all? Looks like a perfect uptrend to me.Quote:
King Salmon shares have fallen since Guy's January 26 announcement amid concern the proposal will run into opposition and become a protracted process, although the peak-to-trough decline was a less-than-devastating 6.5 per cent and the shares have recovered some ground to trade at $1.34.
Attachment 8644
Re NZK - sure, moving their farms to places with more fresh water circulation would be good for the environment, it would create a significant number of additional jobs, and yes, it would be good for NZK as well. Whats not to like about it unless you are one of the people trying to stop any change ...
Still in a nice uptrend (above MA30).
However - chickened out (with some gain) given the risks around resource consent swap and iwi objecting due to them feeling they missed out on consents for their own iwi salmon farming operation. Add some Greenies (it is election year after all) into the mix and the risk is in my view neither calculable nor manageable.
Bit of a pity ... but shy of companies with incalculable political risk.
GLTAH!
Quite right...and watch the drama unfold at the EPA hearing in Wellington this week and next into the application by TTRL to dredge the seabed off Patea and help develop another potentially significant string to the countrys economic bow. The " protesters "are mainly school children brain washed by their hopelss parents., and fishing companies telling fibs. Hopefully the committee hearing the arguements will see through the charade and allow this company to proceed for the benefit of all NZDers.
Nice 1st half profit I say considering I got in at 1.14 after their IPO :t_up: Gut feel at least was right at that time.
No doubt - they are an interesting company, they have a natural moat and they are in a growth industry. My problem with them is not their (current) profitability, but the resource consent process in an election year. This could go well (fingers crossed) and the current share price will look cheap.
However - it is as well possible that Greenies and iwi make a dogs breakfast out of the process ... and I don't dare to think what they are worth if they don't get their consents swapped.
I learned in previous investments the hard way not to rely on common sense in politicised resource consent applications. Prefer others this time to take the risk, but wishing all holders all the best.
Some bad press in Australia for the salmon farming industry.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-3...ction=business
King Salmon source their salmon food from the offal etc from Nelson's fishery. This is an environmental positive.
Not true Jerry. Some of it comes from the fishing industry in NZ, but a very small percentage. However, the NZ aquaculture industry and many others have been working with the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) for several years to develop environmental and social standards to assess and certify farm practises.
The New Zealand fish farming industry at this point is too small to justify the investment in large scale production of consistent quality specialised fish food. New Zealand would need production levels of 60,000t to 80,000t a year to support a feed producing plant. I think from memory the annual production here in NZ is currently only 13,000-15,000 tonnes. At such low levels of production, NZ will always be reliant on imported fish food.
This industry here in NZ really is doing its best to do things in an environmentally responsible way. It is an ongoing and never ending process and there will always be many people opposed, whatever they do.
I belive they are BAP certified if that helps the NGOs....
This is about their pet products .......... http://pureadvantage.org/news/2017/0...lue-advantage/
I recon the outcome will be quite digital. If the proposed resource consent swap in the sounds gets approved, than they are likely to do well. If there is however political interference, than they are likely to have problems. 2 hot for me, though admittedly - I think the risk for Labour/Green interference is dropping (and this is probably what Mr Market is trying to tell us as well).
Obviously - there is still the issue with the sounds apparently being a bit too warm to farm salmon. This might be long-term (global warming) another distractor, but maybe all the ice they currently drop into Antarctic waters helps to keep the water for the next couple of decades cool ;).
Not a good look from a company that wants to do the best by the environment. Selling contaminated burley throughout the country.
"MPI's investigation found several breaches of its biosecurity management plan, and that the company failed to follow best practice for preventing the spread of disease."
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/nation...eadly-bacteria
Good result!! I always knew NZK will do well as I am in hospitality business. But I refused to invest....
Any thoughts on this one? Cracked through the $2 mark for the first time and has gone up nearly 100% since IPO
In principle good industry, however the company has some environmental spots on its vest and there are some political risks.
From memory - their current farming places are suboptimal (not enough water flow to remove all their sewage (or however you call the mix of salmon droppings and unused fish food), as well as water a bit too warm). I understand that there are proposals out to offer them more suitable places in the Sounds instead, but don't think that this is yet a done deal. Didn't follow over the last half year or so since I sold out, but I think iwi was not that happy about the proposals and (depending on who the incoming government is) I could as well imagine some other political issues.
http://www.guardiansofthesounds.co.n...n-epa-inquiry/
I am sure there are as well contrarian views (like from the company ;), but the following recommendation might be worthwhile reading for investors ... always good to know what the risks of an investment are:
https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/...l-presentation
They talk about high fish mortality (the highest in the industry) and lots of environmental problems.
DYOR - most of that is based on some fading memories, but for my feeling are there at this stage some quite significant risks for speed bumps coming up.
I had a brief look and value metrics compared unfavourably to a similar company in Norway. So I stopped digging. There could still be value in here though..
Key point is their 'earnings' (including biological transformations) does not reflect their cashflow. Also I think the most recent year they have had below trend fish mortality, a reversal to the mean could impact earnings, there is a study for scottish salmon showing fish mortality is generally higher than NZK achieved (I dunno how applicable that is to NZ salmon though).
I'd be careful about comparing NZK product to Norway's salmon. I understand that NZK farm Chinook salmon, the premium stuff. Don't know about Norway's or the Scottish products. I was sceptical about this float, like most here, but must accept now that it was an opportunity lost!
:(
Indeed there is a noticeable difference. King (Chinook) Salmon is produced in far smaller numbers than Atlantic Salmon & is considered the premium species. I am aware of certain supermarkets in NZ selling imported Norwegian Salmon, there is a noticeable difference in taste & texture.
From a product point of view, NZ Salmon is among the best in the world.
Market so far does not particularly like W1st's decision. Already 7 cent down. Will be interesting to see whether the Greenies are now using their new found powers - and what impact this has on NZK's ongoing resource swap process ...
Pet Expo the other day - cupboard seems full of King Salmon stuff
Bottles of King Salmon Oil (omega 3), King Salmon bikkies and wow King Salmon freeze tried salmon tails for Scruffy to chew on.
Not wasting anything
"King Salmon says it's too soon to tell if new government will hit farm relocations" http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11941426
Managing Director, Grant Rosewarne, thinking positive.
Sea getting too warm for salmon in Marlborough Sounds this summer.
Salmon in the Marlborough Sounds are dying in their farms as an "extraordinarily hot" summer continues to take its toll on marine life. Stewart Island not immune with high water temps as well.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...-in-the-sounds
I'm new here but cannot seem to understand why there's such a low attention on this company.
Was reading the announcement on 14/02 MPI Salmon Farm relocation - panel report released
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/314181
surely that's a positive and would lift the production of the company?
Welcome to the forum.
I guess there are a lot of question marks around the company - high fish mortality, high pollution and general questions whether the Sounds are the best place for salmon farming anyway, particularly considering global warming (salmon likes cold water - much colder that the sounds during summer / autumn). Add to that the fact that our new government is more likely if in doubt to err towards the environment (i.e. against polluting industries) than I can understand that some investors get cold feet ;)
Discl: Used to hold, but not anymore.
As BlackPeter says, there is a lot to weigh up in terms of qualitative assessments, you need to consider the many risks that NZK faces: high mortality rate due to a variety of factors (summers such as this one where the water temperature is too high, bacteria, nutritional stress, uneaten food waste, and stocking density) and issues with location of farms where they have to contend with environmentalists and Iwi who either oppose the relocations or demand a share or cash settlement.
I love the idea of the company and their profit year on year is sustainable at the moment, but the above factors are enough to deter me from seriously considering investing.
Also seems strange that the company does not have a date for half year result yet? considering it is already late Feb?
how did they fair re the recent storm ?
Any comments on the HY result? \
• Net Profit After Tax of $15.7 million, up 81% on the comparable six month period to 31 December 2016 (1H17).
• Pro Forma Operating EBITDA of $19.5 million, 169% ahead of 1H17.1
• Fully imputed dividend of 2.0 cents per share (cps) declared.
• 4,392 metric tonnes of gilled and gutted salmon sold, up 29% on 1H17.
• Average selling price improved as branding penetration increases, mainly due to Ōra King sales up 22% on 1H17.
• Impact of summer temperatures on fish survival will be reported following the summer period, as we did last year.
However, the situation has now become more challenging. The extraordinarily hot summer has impacted the survival rates of our King salmon, and this will be a principal factor behind an anticipated reduction in profits for the second half
To the point of approx 19 degrees at 5m depth. Salmon mortality occurs at 20 degrees...
I went swimming with the grandlings in Tasman Bay at 30 deg this summer - like getting into a warm bath. NZK are going to have to shift to Southland.
Good or bad, nobody talks about this stock.
The SP has gone up almost 15% in the last couple of days...
Yet I cannot find any ann. or news about why it has happened?
can someone help?
Looking into the chart - it appears it sort of bounced with low volumes at the MA200. Wouldn't read too much into it. Could be a dead cat, some overeager buyer - probably just noise.
To continue the uptrend it would need to pass the recent double top around $2.40. Not sure I see that coming without a change in the fundamentals ...
Suppose this is a pretty positive announcement, esp the bits about next year’s prospects
https://quoteapi.com/resources/da986...9_guidance.pdf
Certainly positive sounding ...
A bit a worry though that they still have nothing else to report about their discussions with government (and I suppose with iwi, environmental authorities and similar) than that these discussions are "continued". I guess nice he calls them "positive", but isn't the outcome somewhat overdue?
I guess a positive outcome would be better than just positive (but endless) discussion - and NZK would be rooted if they can't move and sea temperatures keep rising. Their fish mortality is already now bad enough and their dead fish (disposed in some Marlborough landfill) apparently is stinking to the sky ....Quote:
He notes "we are also continuing our positive discussions with the Government
regarding MPI plans for potential relocation of some of our farms to cooler,
deeper waters. These plans are important because they would help mitigate
the effects of seasonal temperature fluctuations. They would improve
environmental, social and economic outcomes, and allow testing of new
technologies as we plan for the next 30 years of salmon farming in New
Zealand."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/103...sh-in-landfill