As a point of interest, my system gave its
first signal 11/3 on this pair for a short entry at 110.77.
2nd and 3rd system confirmation signals were triggered on 12/3.
Current price is around 107.13 or around 360 pips.
Printable View
As a point of interest, my system gave its
first signal 11/3 on this pair for a short entry at 110.77.
2nd and 3rd system confirmation signals were triggered on 12/3.
Current price is around 107.13 or around 360 pips.
Weekend close was at 106.70 for a current
gain of 407 pips. Watching carefully now as
the current action is in a possible reversal area.
Mondays close was at 106.70 for a current
gain of 522 pips.
Watching carefully now as the current action
looks close to a possible reversal, and today
maybe the day to take the profit
Hanging on as still falling.
Pips at close 653.
Trailing stop.
As mentioned 30/3 -
"Watching carefully now as the current action
looks close to a possible reversal"
Stop hit on 2/4 at 104.49 for around 628 pips on 50%.
Total +728 overall.
Trendline break but "mind the gap"
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/050704X.gif
Day trading using EW techniques on 5 min chart.
Here's one trade I completed yesterday.
1. Wait for the completion of a 5 wave impulse, and 3 wave correction.
2. Buy on positive break of ABC correction down-trend line, making it possible to take 15-20 points in 25 minutes if prefered. Alternatively, let the trade run with a limit set for say 70+/- pips. Stop was placed just below the low of the double bottom.
Trade closed for 70 pips profit / US$617.72
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/Close%20tradeX.gif
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/5%20min.gif
The gap as mentioned caused a slight hiccup but the
overnight action has bridged that gap and JPY may now
move higher and head initially into the 115/117 target zone.
Chart update
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/051304j.gif
Long 114.20
USD.JPY is struggling to keep it's head up. I thought there may be a few more pips potential after the 3 methods pattern but it appears to stalled right at the marked target zone (5?).
Just above the action there is the old downtrend line (red) and previous broken support line around 115.83 adding more resistance.
Reversal imminent IMO.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/051804.gif
Short again at 110.90 after the long legged Doji against resistance.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta...s/06032004.gif
Price is now hovering around the question mark
in the previous post and Medium/Long term holders
are now up around 530 pips on this one so far with
more to come IMO.
(Each pip is worth around US$8 per number
of contracts).
e.g. 5 contracts US$21,200
ARCO where are you getting the FOREX rates for your software from and are using Metastock? Is it end of day data?
Trendy
Metastock with EOD Spot rates via local NZ
supplier who receive their info via Reuters.
Arco
Big fall overnight bringing total pip profit nowQuote:
quote:Price is now hovering around the question mark
in the previous post and Medium/Long term holders
are now up around 530 pips on this one so far with
more to come IMO.
to around 667 currently for Med/Long term punters.
Possibile support ahead circa 130.50, so I am expecting
some hesitation around that area.
JPY has continued to perform well, adding another
112 pips to make around 779 total. I still expect
there could be some hesitation in this area, so
tight stops now to protect profit.
Looks like a possible bullish Gartley in the making,
so JPY.USD may be lining up here for a bit of a run north.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta...w_target_2.gif
+ 76 pips at close on the first fade entry, but JPY
has not spiked any lower to allow adding fades.
Minor resistance 10468.
JPY has reached 10738 in the last few hours
(original target on 1st March was 10781).
Max profit so far circa 370 pips.
Tight trailing stop as old DT line is near this point.
JPY has hit and passed the medium term target I gave
on March 1st. The current profit is a max of circa 475 pips,
with the stop still trailing behind protecting profits.......
...............and the sun is shining brightly [8D]
GTA.
Just bought 1 unit of USD/JPY at 104.75 S/L 104.41
Xerof
stopped at 104.41:(
Good Afternoon Xerof
Yes, I mentioned JPY on TT yesterday
JPY printed an Harami Cross, and I have a possible short term Gartley showing. So for the time being we may see a move
higher......
104.69 looks good for possible support area IMO.
No position currently.
arco
4/5Reversed north nicely as anticipated givingQuote:
quote:JPY printed an Harami Cross, and I
have a possible short term Gartley showing.
So for the time being we may see a move higher..
punters around 100 pips in their pocket presently.
Possible some turbulent weather can be expected around 10625
arco
Ok I'm kicking myself........
Posted the trade set-up but didn't take it myself [B)]
Hope someone else jumped on board for circa 300 pips
JPY is now at various resistance points
and Gartley targets, and perhaps creating
shoulder number 2.
arco
Got 123 pips out of it arco
in to late(again)
slam
Slam
I don't think you should consider that as 'too late'.
You made a decision to get on board a north bound train,
- no problem with that.
Punters are very lucky anytime to get the absolute
bottom and top, and taking 123 pips from a trend
is a very good trade.
One of those a week and you will be laughing all
the way to the bank. :D
arco
Arco, slam,
Slam, you leaped on the caboose as it left the station, I jumped on the rails in front of the engine and got run over:D:D
XerofQuote:
quote: Just bought 1 unit of USD/JPY at 104.75 S/L 104.41 - stopped at 104.41
Xerof
caboose was half way ot timbucktoo before I got it.
still a trade though
Cheers
Slam
So Arco, I get the feeling you're not convinced we have a breakout by the USD, - like me, I reckon you've been looking at GWD's dollar index chart over on TT, and his EUR chart too? - sobering thoughts, and probably a good time to watch and wait, which I am doing today and probably tomorrow. If the index fails, the move could be another explosive one in the opposite direction.
I gather you're looking for levels to sell USD/JPY - I sold small at 107.70 yesterday, squared at 107.08 o/n. Also bought Eur at 1.2590, but chickened out at 1.26285. Small beers to keep the till ringing...
Not sure from here - waiting, waiting
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Have been out all morning and still perusing EOD charts.
Not checked GWD's handiwork as yet, but there are so many
Butterflies on my charts that look almost complete I have
some niggling doubts. Hence my only position is NZD +14
Watching and waiting with my long handled net. ;)
arco
took a long here 107,29
to some extent it made up for my loss on Eur/JPY. so dumped the loser and hold the winner. +33 as of now.
Watch circa 10784 - it may be hard to penitrate IMO.
No current position - I need to prune back somewhere. [:o)]
had my stop at 107.40 to make sure this didnt go bad... so yeh just got hit - only 11+
[xx(]
A Bearish Engulfing pattern has appeared on
the old DT line taking overnight action back just
below the Gann resistance @ 10784 that I mentioned
a few days ago.
Morning Arco,still think short on this one?,would go with your long on eur/usd,ta.
Cheers
Miner
Morning Miner
Nothing has changed my mind presently although
the Fx market lacks 'direction' at the moment.
As I mentioned in a another thread I believe EUR needs to
correct higher, therefore the reverse should be the case for JPY.
arco
Miner
You may be interested in these fundamental thoughts
from Financial Express
..........."If there is no (negative) surprise in the FOMC minutes and the US economic data due out this week confirm the strength of the economy, the dollar will be bought back above 108 yen," said Daisuke Uno, a market analyst at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp...................
http://www.financialexpress-bd.com/i...id=141&spcl=no
Thanks arco.
Cheers
Miner
10784 may now be supp arco?,go with eur/usd through supp and usd/chf on supp now,so strong USD?.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
A Bearish Engulfing pattern has appeared on
the old DT line taking overnight action back just
below the Gann resistance @ 10784 that I mentioned
a few days ago.
Cheers
Miner
Miner
Always a diffcult point in the action.
Basically we are trying to pick the top using TA
techniques instead of jumping on to a confirmed trend
and missing 30%+/- of the move. When it works, its
fantastic and we can enjoy the extra cream.
However it can be a dangerous game requiring nerves of
steel and is not suitable for people with a history
of loose bowel movements :D
See Chit Chat thread re USD bull/bear possibilities.
PS.
I think you mean resistance (not support).
arco
Ta Arco might have been to early in the morning for me[|)],was thinking 10784 was ress when below, it is now above so it may become supp?,or still to early for me:D.
Cheers
Miner
Miner
This is the basic principle...
When old support converts to new resistance or
when old resistance converts to new support we
get a change of polarity.
The resistance/support has to be broken and tested, as
in this diagram.
http://www.tradersvic.com/candlestic...1-07-11-03.gif
arco
[8D]Ta.
Yen May Gain Against Dollar, Euro on Signs Japanese Economy Is Recovering
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may gain versus the dollar and euro today after economic reports showed Japan's jobless rate fell to the lowest in more than six years and household spending rose.
The reports improve prospects for a recovery in the world's second-biggest economy. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent in April from 4.5 percent the previous month, the lowest since December 1998. Spending by households headed by salaried workers increased 3.6 percent from March, the first gain in three months.
``There are a number of reasons why you'd be supportive of the yen,'' said Greg Gibbs, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. ``The numbers out of Japan have been looking a lot better.''
The yen traded at 107.99 per dollar as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo from 108.0 before the reports were released and late yesterday in Asia, according to electronic foreign exchange trading system EBS. It gained to 134.66 versus the euro, from 134.80 earlier.
The currency last week halted a three-week decline after government reports showed retail sales and exports rose more than expected. The yen is down 4.9 percent this year on signs growth in the U.S. is outpacing that of Japan.
The yen yesterday drew support after a government report showed Japan's industrial output gained more than expected in April, after declining the previous two months.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html
I was a bit early on this for the reversal, but
the action now has moved in the direction I expected.
Closed 10689....expecting some support to come in
circa 10625
Fly me to the moon.....humming the rest, but it was an Andy Williams song (for you young bucks out there) Andy who? you're saying - well exactly really:D:D
This one looks like its about to catch an explosive ride north towards 113 - emphasis on looks - in wave(iii) of 3 of C ?
The break of 109.70 looks encouraging.
Do the experts agree with that count (<s>hourly</s>daily chart)
Xerof
Agree Xerof (not that I profess to be an expert)
went long at 109.78 this morn;)
is your C you refer to on a larger chart than a daily?
cant figure that one out, what date did C start?
Cheers
Slam
Slam, I meant its in C now, I have B ending at 104.20 on 4/5/05
Xerof
got ya:)
Mentioned on 7/6...
"expecting some support to come in circa 10625"
Reversal off low of 10647, which was pretty close, and that
means circa 350 pips potential profit has already slipped by.
Be prepared in the short/medium term as Major Gann could
be lurking not too far above ready to maul the unwary. [B)]
As far as the wave count goes. I'm no expert, but I
see JPY as being on W5 of 5. (Count started 17/1).
For longer term players it certainly looks to be north-bound.
FLY ME TO THE MOON lyrics are by FRANK SINATRA.
......I guess not alot of people know that [:0]
I stand corrected Arco - I should have checked the facts but knew it was one of those ol' crooners.And yes I can see your longer term count.Quote:
quote:"Come on Mr Williams - back to the home..."
Major Gann is fighting on a lot of fronts at the moment - might need to call up the reinforcements? Dollar holding a bit of sway so far this week IMV
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Just spotted this from Daily FX Research Team 28th June 2005
USD/JPY -Japanese Yen remains in a limbo as the pair continues to float above the 109.00 figure, with the latest move by the dollar longs pushing the yen toward the 109.50 mark. A breakout above the 2005 high will most likely see the yen traders retreat above the psychologically important 110.00 handle, with dollar longs aiming at 115.00 as their next big target.. Indicators signal trend reversal, with ADX (DMI) dropping to 26.46. Stochastic is treading below the overbought line on the daily chart at 71.47 with Stochastic on the 4-hour chart also slightly below the overbought line at 76.54, thus providing yen bulls with a chance to mount a counterattack. RSI is neutral at 58.68 on the daily chart, with dealer (4HR) chart also neutral at 57.97. MACD is treading flatly above the zero line on the daily chart, while the MACD on the (4HR) chart is pointing upward above the zero line.
PS. Yes Major Gann is very busy with his boys. [:I]
arcoQuote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
As far as the wave count goes. I'm no expert, but I
see JPY as being on W5 of 5. (Count started 17/1).
In this instance wave 4 crosses wave 1
so on that count, it can't be a 5
Hi Slam
Normally yes, but occasionally there
can be a 'Leading Diagonal' (just to
confuse the issue [V]).
Diagonal Triangle (Leading) -
A wedge shaped pattern containing
overlap that occurs only in first or
A waves. Subdivides 5-3-5-3-5.
As I say, I'm not an EW expert, however its
always a possibility along with other ideas.
Can you post a chart with you EW count for discussion.
Regards
arco
Slam
Just looking at some EW rules.
Havent had time to evaluate them re
the JPY as yet.
Diagonal Triangle Type 1
Wave Type: Impulsive
Frequency of Occurrence: Infrequent
Rules:
Wave 1 can be any corrective wave except a Triangle
Wave 2 can be any corrective wave
Wave 3 can be any corrective wave except a Triangle
Wave 4 can be any corrective wave
Wave 5 can be any corrective wave
Wave 2 must not more than retrace wave 1
Wave 3 must be longer than wave 2 by price distance
Wave 3 must not be the shortest by price distance when compared with wave 1 and wave 5.
The 5th wave must be at least 38.2% the length of wave 4 by price distance
Moves within two channel lines, one that connects the end points of waves 1 and 3, and the other that connects the end points of waves 2 and 4. In rare cases the price may move outside these points by up to 15% of the price distance covered by the pattern
Waves 2 and 4 must overlap or be within 10% of overlapping in price territory.
Wave 5 is never the longest by price distance when compared with wave 1 and wave 3.
The intersection of the two channel lines must be beyond the end of the pattern.
The two channel lines must either converge or diverge. They cannot be parallel. They must slope in the same direction and neither may be horizontal.
Guidelines:
Waves 2 and 4 are both at least a 23.6% retracement of the previous wave. Each point within the wave is considered.
The end points of wave 1 and wave 4 nearly always overlap.
Diagonals nearly always converge. Diverging diagonals are very uncommon.
Waves 2 and 4 should alternate sharp with sideways (Zigzag based pattern with a non-Zigzag based pattern).
Wave 2 is often a sharp correction, while wave 4 is often a sideways correction.
It is typical for wave 5 to poke through the channel line.
Diagonal Triangles are infrequent.
A 5th wave should be at least 61.8% of wave 4 by price distance.
Wave 2 is rarely a Triangle.
It is uncommon for wave 4 or wave 5 to be a Triangle.
Diagonal Triangle Type 2
Wave Type: Impulsive
Frequency of Occurrence: Very Uncommon
Rules:
Wave 1 must be an Impulse
Wave 2 can be any corrective pattern.
Wave 3 must be an Impulse.
Wave 4 can be any corrective pattern.
Wave 5 can be any Impulsive pattern.
Wave 2 must not more than retrace wave 1.
This pattern only occurs in a rising market. (A bear market rally).
Wave 3 must be longer than wave 2 by price distance.
Wave 3 must not be the shortest wave when compared to the price distance of wave 1 and wave 5.
Wave 5 must be at least 38.2% the length of wave 4 by price distance.
The pattern must move within two channel lines drawn from the end points of waves 1 and 3, and from the end points of waves 2 and 4. The maximum movement outside these channel lines is 15% of the price distance covered by the pattern.
Waves 2 and 4 must either share some common price territory or be within 10% of doing so.
Wave 5 is never the longest when compared to wave 1 and wave 3.
The intersection of the two channel lines must be beyond the end of the pattern
The two channel lines must either converge or diverge. They cannot be parallel. They must slope in the same direction and neither may be horizontal
Guidelines:
Generally wave 2 and 4 are both at least 23.6% of the previous wave by price distance. Each point within the wave is considered.
The end points of waves 1 and 4 generally overlap.
Diagonal Triangles nearly always converge. Diverging Diagonal Triangles are very uncommon.
Waves 2 and 4 should alternate sharp with sideways (Zigzag based pattern with a non-Zigzag based pattern).
Wave 2 is most often a sharp correction, while wave 4 is often a sideways correction.
It is typical for wave 5 to poke through the channel line.
Diagonal Triangle Type 2 is a very rare pattern.
Wave 5 should be at least 61% of wave 4 by price distance.
Wave 2 is rarely a Triangle.
It is uncommon for wave 4 or wave 5 to be a Triangle.
More homework :D
arco
[:I][:I][:I]
as you say, more homework
Cheers
Slam
Slow day so Slam see the shooting star that we got on the 5min(also lined up with a few things on the 15min) and eur/jpy gone same way,so confirm each other,now maybe doing a double bottom,so it did the come back to test thing(eur/jpy).
The above for trading,although sometimes it keeps you in.
Just thought as we talked about it so...
Cheers
Miner
Could be a short going by the other 3?.
Got stopped on this short by a pip while power was out,80 odd pips in it, bugger.
gutted... though where's your risk management? ;) you should have a back up generator :P
i think my account is just a few 0's away from such extensive procedures... for now.
Chain came of my push bike which was connected to the mains board[:0][B)]:D;)
One should always have a spare pushbike Miner - one of the first rules of money management
If when? it gets through this daily high-highs from last week or so could be fun.
breaking 11260 is significant IMO - <s>115</s>114 target now over time
Hope you've got the chain back on that bike Miner:D:D
Chain back on hehe and just sorted #@$%^$ADSL problems(well hope so),if this keeps going look long usd/chf and short eur/usd,if they play the opp way game,eur/jpy the hard one to pick tonight.
Ok trend on the daily,eur/jpy following
Here's another one thats on 'Baywatch';);)
http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/7326/usdjpy4xd.png
Xerof - keeping abreast of the markets [}:)][}:)]
Xerof
That made me titter, it certainly looks a bit like a double cone. Shades of Madonna
http://www.bbc.co.uk/totp2/ugotthelo...es/madonna.jpg
Yes, I'm watching a monster pair on the weekly which started around May 04. (You should find it easy enough Xerof).
Boy, if/when this one flaps its wings there will be some fall-out, and we are gonna make a bundle of Yen.
arco
Arco,
Took me a minute or two to take my focus off Madonnas gartleys, but if I have found the right formation, I have initial target for exiting from Madonna's D cup around 1.1850, being 1.272%. Of course 1.618% is 500 pips higher still, so <s>her</s> the pair will need to be handled with great care - relishing that thought too [}:)][}:)]
Xerof
Precise reversal on that 360 min chart formation posted yesterday, for a cupful of pips
Excellent.
I hereby award you the distinguished OOL medal (Order of Lepidoptera) for services to wing watchers worldwide.
I toast Xerof OOL.
Now..... back to basics - how many pips have you got under your wing from that little move [:0]
arco OOL
None, still reckon I've got an L plate on these formations Arco, but encouraged by the non monetary results so far. Found another on the CHF, which also turned very neatly, for an even better return.
I have always liked to keep a clean slate for the first week back from a break, to get the market rhythms reinstalled in the brain
Xerof TOOL (Token Order of Lepidoptera) [8D][8D]
TOOL.
I like it. There are others of course, depending on your rank ;)
COOL - for those that have reached the top
FOOL - for those that have reached (and found) the bottom
G(h)OOL - for those that like to pull the wings off their butterflies
MOOL - for those that always need their ass kicking
POOL - mostly awarded to seamen
S(t)OOL - saved especially for the messy boys who can never get their s*hit together.
[:I]
and JOOL, for those that profer little gems on a consistent basis[^][^]
This one produced a higher incursion into the zone, going to the 1.5% fib quite nicely, and although subsequent action looks likely to follow Arco's big kahuna, (a.k.a. Mount Madonna[:p][:p]) formation on a weekly basis, 70 to 100 pips were available from this shorter time frame, even if one had got in a bit early.
The >115 activity was an exotic barrier stop driven bullsh*t move anyway, first time up
http://img356.imageshack.us/img356/7884/usdjpy0tv.png
Danes view.....
The rising USD against the JPY has been somewhat of a puzzle to
many market participants. In their search for "cause and effect"
solutions they have erroneously coupled the rising Nikkei index
with a bullish JPY outlook By doing that they have missed the
point that many foreign Nikkei-investors have been JPYfunded,
and more importantly that the Japanese overseas
investors have been unwinding their currency hedges anxiously
due to the increased funding costs on the back of the present
hawkish FED stance. A development worth watching as many
Japanese firms/investors are supposed to announce further
reductions of their hedge ratios in the near future. Buying
USD/JPY or sticking with one's bought positions seem to be the
best piece of advice for now
This chart is 3 weeks old, but JPY has now reached my measured targets @ 159.72 (160.01 highest).
Might be a few pips in it (south).
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/100605butt_887.gif
The relentless march north continues towards the initial Butterfly target circa 118.45, and cycle week 9/11 looms ahead.
Total run north now circa 1400 pips presently for medium/longer term holders. Oscillator showing some divergence.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110105wbutt_267.gif
GTA - arco
From an email I got from London this evening - each time the USD.JPY has gone above/below 115, the move has been at least 10 yen, so 125 appears to be where we are going....
If you have a monthly chart that goes back far enough, the facts are quite compelling.
Off the weekly chart, I have a maximum target of 123.15 (1.618% fib ext from the 101.75 low), so not entirely off the planet
Xerof
We are not a milllion miles from the 118.45 calculated target as mentioned way back.
Therefore I have closed longs and reversed with a smaller short position presently at 118.30
Updated chart here which shows time and price now coming together indicating we have the possibility of a turn in the near future.
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110505wbutt_135.gif
Looks like her short tactical was a mistake ...
Danish commentary :
USD/JPY is clearly on the verge of defying gravity. After a
short pause the cross managed to break above the 118.00-50
area, which was considered a tough resistance area, and is
now instead aiming at a rendez-vous with the psychological 120
area. The effect on the JPY from the upcoming Bush visit to Asia
this week is therefore almost back to square one, as market fears
of renewed US-pressure on China to once again revalue their
currency are waning. On the domestic front, however, pressures
on the JPY keep building as the open dispute between the MoF
and BoJ refuses to dig in. The Japanese politicians - like many
European politicians as well- are anxious, that a shift in
monetary policy away from the expansionary mode to a
restrictive one will kill the mild economic upswing that Japan is
experiencing right now. Hence political pressures on BoJ are
building in order to slowdown their path towards normalizing
the quantitative easing policy. This row is though clearly not
doing the JPY any good, which keeps going down the drain
against primarily the USD. The strong uptrend keeps expanding
despite the fact that USD/JPY technically is beginning to look
rather overbought. A state that should be noted, but also a state
that can go on for longer than one can stay solvent. I stick with
my intention to buy back my sold tactical position on a daily
close above 120.50 or at 115 should the cross as originally
expected be in for a healthy correction. The recent spike in
USD/JPY is noteworthy and means an end to the last couple of
years dull trading pattern in the cross. Overall the 123 area
represents a make or break for the present uptrend. Once
broken - USD/JPY gravity will definitely be defied.
Time for some preparation and fine tuning coming up?
http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/2280/usdjpy4qk.png
No meaningful sign of the Major yet, as far as I can see anyway, but may come into view around the new year
A good candidate for Monarch 1 Arco?
Xerof
Arco, if you're around, any more thoughts on this one longer term?
Slower grind higher this past month, but I wonder whether there's too much more in it. Obviously yen is very weak on crosses, but carry trades have a nasty habit of unwinding all of a sudden.
121.50/122 before a turn around maybe? Perhaps best left alone until new year?
Xerof
Morning Xerof
Certainly a very dirty black EOD candle.
Long term the Butterfly may provide us with some good profits,but I will only be playing short term trades now with the Xmas break looming ahead.
arco
Xerof
The Danish publication dated 9th
JPY - a sleeping beauty
Completely unable to resist, the yen has weakened massively over recent months. Low interest rates, which are not likely to be changed much in the foreseeable future judging by Japanese politicians, have attracted financial players like bees to a honeypot.
All kinds of activities have been financed by borrowing the low-interest currency. Japanese investments abroad have not been hedged as much as earlier, given the high US interest rates. All those elements have weighed down the Japanese currency to the extent that USD/JPY is massively overbought from the technical point of view and actually looks like an accident about to happen.
In that connection it is important to stress that many players have not even been in on the recent impressive upturn of the USD/JPY rate. For to many players, the impressive upturn of the Japanese equity index - the Nikkei - has been incompatible with the JPY weakening (another classic example that one plus one rarely
makes two in the financial markets).
Accordingly, the newly converted buyers of USD/JPY find it very hard indeed to see any downward potential again, and most have their sights on new peaks at 125 and 130. Overall, this is a fantastic basis for a downward correction. From the technical point of view, the correction seems to be about to happen!
The yen is therefore expected to wake up from its beauty sleep soon and undergo a fair appreciation. I have reopened a 50% net short position with the first target at 118.50. But the correction could well go even lower, towards 115-116. So keep your wits about you if you plan to re-finance or have long USD/JPY positions. The correction is expected to sneak up like a thief.
So which Prince kissed the sleeping beauty last night?Quote:
quote:JPY - a sleeping beauty
a right old tongue bath at that:D:D
Well, the prince has got the better of sleeping beauty and got his leg over now :D:D
Fairly obvious that the 'carry trade' holders are now being forced out.
A bit of chatter around regarding the BOJ looking to smooth the flow - watch out for that, because all that will happen is they will provide the liquidity for the Yen side of the various cross carry trades - this will put the pressure on to simply trash the other leg and possibly cause further acceleration of these vs USD.
a mere 4 days agoRegrettably I had decided to hang the trading boots up until the new year, expecting this move later rather than sooner, so have nothing on what look like being the best moves of the year really [B)][B)]Quote:
quote: carry trades have a nasty habit of unwinding all of a sudden.
Such is life in FX
Merry Christmas all
Xerof
anyone care to help me understand what they are saying here?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by elliot wave
The Elliott wave implications of the yen's sideways pattern are clear: Prices just competed a special "contracting triangle" that's been in the making for ten years, and the scope of the resulting move should be equally large. Jeffrey's forecast is explicit:
"When you spot a contracting triangle at any degree of trend on a chart, it's worth getting excited about, because this wave pattern portends a swift move in price. But for me, the most exciting find is one that has taken years to form, because a multi-year, strong, trending market often follows. That's exactly what I believe will be the case in the coming years for the Japanese Yen."
Hi Pete
Not professing to be an EW guru by any means, but a Contracting Triangle usually indicates a breakout about to happen.
By the sounds of it, they are looking at a weekly or monthly chart. (Just had a look at the pair and it's monthly)
By my reckoning, the pair will break south, but don't take my word for it, Arco or Xerof may want to confirm.
Check out this link, half way down the page for an explanation of the pattern.
http://www.aeroinvest.com/chart%20Ga...lliottWave.htm
Should be a continuation of the trend that preceded the Triangle, hence my call south.
Don't forget they are using a monthly chart and this patter has formed over the last 10 Years, so may take a few years to do anything big on this time scale.
Hope that helps a bit
Cheers
Slam
Pete
Monthly JPY
Plot showing possible resistance at the extention of the triangle line. Notice also the Descending triangle (bearish).
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/011906_168.gif
cheers guys.confirming my suspicions.
Altho in this time frame the correctives would still be quite large it would seem better to generally be playing in the same direction as the major wave. it might grant some unexpected bonuses.
so whereabouts would we be looking for a breakout here? Somewhere around 95-100?
If it convincingly broke that maybe you could be lookin at 55 in no time where no time = 6 mths to a year of course hehe.
Pretty little things, aren't they.....
http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/9731/jpy6hn.png
Xerof
Hi All
Went short at 119.06
Currently 119pips
anyone else short?
Cheers
Slam
Yup, 116 area for me on this one. S/l at b/e now
yeh i shorted at 119.10 and took at 118.02 (demo) i'm thinkin its just a correction.
From My Squawk for what it's worth
Cheers
Slam
Quote:
quote:February
7. Traders looking for direction on the USD/JPY tonight should cast an eye to
the sharp fall in gold on the Tocom in December and the resultant collapse of
USD/JPY from levels above 120 to levels under 116.00. The Tocom collapse was
triggered by increased margin requirements that saw funds bail out of Tocom gold
contracts. On the physical market, traders mirroring that flow would sell gold,
receive the USD then sell the USD to buy JPY.
A similar fall-out is possible tonight particularly if a Tocom chart is eyed and
traders see the overextended gains on the Tocom. This risks another major
fall-out in USD/JPY, targeting further strong USD/JPY losses. Traders also
expect a large bail-out in the dollar bloc currencies against the JPY in the
wake of the gold and base metal markets collapse. NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY
are all expected to come under pressure tonight. USD/JPY offers remain at 118.20
but stops are seen at 118.30, 118.40 and 118.50 from CTAs. Bids are eyed at
117.70/80 but stops are now reported on USD/JPY at 117.60. --
Squared at lowered stop of 118.00 for 100 pips
Xerof
Hi all,
I thought I'd provide an image that might provoke some comment.
I am of the impression that the bounce from CD leg of what appears to be a Gartley in this chart is too steep... suggesting a further retest of the 11700 level before heading North again.
I was previously of the opinion that the $USD had indeed come up against an overiding trendline adn the large crab formation on the daily chart woul see USDJPY decline towards the 113 level in short time - but it looks as though any "true" reversal will be delayed at least another month or until interest rates pause.
I have been reading your posts for some months now and have enjoyed every word.
sulman.
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/1779/usdjpy6lj.jpg
Welcome Sulman
This is how JPY.USD seems to be shaping up to me......
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/021206_usd.jpy_107.gif
regards - arco