Originally Posted by
BlackPeter
No thesis, Roger - just an innocent observation and question :);
Not sure either, whether it would be in any way appropriate to adjust the SP trend for the special divvie (which in reality was a partial capital return minus the amount they lost in a bad investment).Record ever special so in my view it is. If I remember correctly Hoop was also of the same view
Obviously - it depends what you want to show with the graph. If you intend to show past returns, than by all means add dividends and capital returns. However - if you want to observe SP patterns - what good is it to add past dividends? The money is gone (distributed) and will do AIR no good anymore. Any SP movement will happen from the now lower base - and this is what the graph shows.Lets me advance that debate by giving an illustration.
If one were comparing the total shareholder return of two companies RYM and AIR over the last two years and brought up the SP graph's of both one would note RYM has fallen a little whereas AIR has fallen from $2.50 to $2.12, more in percentage terms. Adjusting for dividends paid however RYM is still probably down, (I haven't had the time to do the math's) but AIR is up due to 45 cents in fully imputed divvy's paid this year and about 20 cps last year. Dividend inclusive charts give a more accurate picture of total shareholder returns whereas dividend exclusive charts like those on ANZ securities give a more positive view towards low dividend yield shares
Anyway - it sort of feels you still seem to have your heart blood in this share. I like aviation and its an iconic N.Z. company with a long historyI remember how this feels, I lost this way a lot of money myself ;) (though not with AIR); I do hope you are right and AIR passed already rock bottom, but I am based on the 2017 analyst predictions, the cyclical nature of the aviation industry and the ongoing jitter in the share marketsbased on average analyst forecasts for FY18 when all the recent new competition will be fully bedded in for the full financial year the stock trades on a PE of 8, well below its 10 year average of about 11 (anybody noticing that the NZX50 is very close to finishing a beautiful head and shoulders?)now that's an interesting observation ! not convinced. Anyway - this makes things interesting ... would be terribly boring if we would always agree, wouldn't it?