That’s a sick looking chart in that article
Did Fool say “However, I still see more value in the shares of rival Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL).”
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Sure is and lest we forget the below article from same crowd when Citi downgraded them when the price was $1.84 in Oct 2016 and fast forward 2 years where we are now...
https://www.fool.com.au/2016/10/27/a...-baby-formula/
And who can forget that (in)famous analyst from Citi Mr Sam Teeger.
I actually can't work out if he's being ironic, or is genuinely that inane?
Edit: Looks like it's the latter, judging by his Twitter record. How about this gem:
Mark Lister @MarkListerNZ Aug 3More
Just paid my annual rates bill, which is 4.2% of the value of my house. So my house has to rise by that degree each year for me to simply break even on my rates, before I even consider interest, inflation, insurance, or maintenance. Who said property was a great investment again?
There's simply no way this is possible. He's innumerate.
LOL They deserve an award for that, a badge of honour, sure there's something appropriate here https://www.trademe.co.nz/home-livin...1719187747.htm Most appropriate one could be "I give up, what planet are you from" ?
craigs say upgrade recently price declined , citi downgrades price declines looks like citi moves the market more than craigs on this stock.
No mention of how a geared investment works, cost savings from not renting, growing capital, or a myriad of non financial benefits work in the propery market.
I take it he applies similar lack of logic to his stock investment choices.
A2 has to rise by my interest bill, inflation, loss of potential earnings from other sources, tax, doctor's bills for stress treatment. Before it can be considered a good investment.
No wonder school teachers etc are asking for a rent subsidy in auck, tauranga etc.Even a psychotherapist cant help a Fried on mind:)
Serious shorting going on with 54% of the total volume shorted yesterday, combine that with the Citi clowns who yesterday recommended A2 as a good growth play then downgraded it today and it's no wonder you get an orchestrated price drop, best to sit tight and ignore or use as a buying opportunity IMO.PS-Baton down the hatches as MA200 is under threat.
WANTED TO BUY 2000 a2 @ 10.10 to 10.12 ono to add to the herd bought last Thursday at 10.12:).
All true, but i'm more worried that he just can't calculate a percentage properly. I'm assuming given his job position he's at least living in a 2m valued house. For his rates to be 4% of the value annually, he'd have to be paying 80k per year on rates. Which is complete BS.
My home's CV is a touch over a million, and we pay under 3k per year. For those i know who have houses valued at up to 3-3.5m, they're all still paying less than 10k (not 120k as Lister appears to imply with his 4% figure).
Have to do something with my PPH funds so I have an order in at $10.40. See if that gets met today. Also just picked up a few more SML. I'm feeling a bit more milky than your average Milky Bar kid.
Not too worried about the short term _ i'm still looking a year plus out with these ones.
Edit. Well, thats me topped up. ATM accounting for 22% of my portfolio and overall now carrying a 13% gain over 9 months. Looking forward to those future dividends!
See Weed - Have you been employed by Fonterra to promote instore sales of A2 yet? I reckon you go for a percentage of sales..... :p
RBNZ commited to devaluing the kiwi dollar to help exporters and keep the economy afloat. Wonder if any of the analyst has modelled in any currency tailwinds
china growth slowing , money fleeing the country , stock market collapsing people are becoming restless ..... people will not be in the mood for babies
a2 now available in Milwaukee.
https://www.wheatbellyblog.com/2018/...h-to-a2-dairy/
Wow! Bellamy shares are getting hammered right now(4.2%) down.I hope it is not an industry driven fall.... or can someone please let us know why? and now the difference between A2 and Bal is just about 50C
I thought that information was widely known
The important detail is that China's current rate of birth isn't high enough to sustain its future "people" needs (1.6 children per woman vs a needed 2.1)
China has relaxed its one child policy - next steps will, I reckon, be subsidising / encouraging a higher birth rate.
But its not just a higher birthrate - its a higher rate of healthy children growing into healthy productive adults. And what better than a steady diet of A2 milk!
(Once A2 have locked in China over the next 5 years they can then target africa - the continent with a growing birth rate. Unlike pretty much everywhere else where rates are declining)
Not a lot of bull.
As reported last night extensively on the BBC, China growth definitely slowing, stock market very poorly performing and business confidence down.
Only question is will it impact on A2......
Can the middle/upper class continue to be interested and afford this product?
One thing is for certain, not many NZ stores have A2 in them at present.
NZ market will probably be a loss to the bottom line with costs etc... as not enough volume to make a profit over time.
...and just to add, about 1/5 of Chinese large caps have reported half year results now with 1H growth sitting firmly at 40% yoy, if that's considered a 'collapse' then f* me, rest of the world ex USA must be in the middle of a great depression right now. So not sure where guys like bull/muppet keep getting their notion that "china is slowing" from tbh...
"people getting restless" hmm ok do yourself a favor and catch a flight there take a look, people must be exhausted from shopping at unmanned stores and getting same day delivery via drones, while you're busy writing complaints to Auck metro about their slow services lol
Edit: if your view of the world is through clickbait journalism who has no better content than to regurgitate the same old tariff news (and a slight market correction) then best to learn to ignore the noise
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/econ...ckles-risk-and
theres other figures as well. need to remember even a small slow down in china is big stuff ..... tarriffs will slow china growth more
I'm only going on what I hear and read. And by hear, I mean on the likes of the BBC. Yeah, I know they get reporters in and are somewhat pessimistic, need to spin a tale and pump out some content, but I'm trying to stick to facts. Otherwise, what else is there to go on?
I hope most of it is wrong.
With all the so called positive news surrounding A2 in the last 3-6 months .....the SP is a tad disappointing.
I stopped reading past the headline, "Economy grew 6.7 per cent in second quarter from a year earlier", basically already contradictory to the clickbait title....name me another country that can match 6.7% gdp growth bull
yes yes seems like the bears have nothing better to say in 2018 than the same old tariff news, a slight market correction in response to a weaker yuan(which is actually done on purpose by PBOC in response to the US tactics)...whoop de doo must be the next GFC already
actual statistics is your friend http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php
guess we will find more clarity end of the mth , next year a2 fortunes will become more apparent
China relaxed their one child policy in 2015. Makes no sense at all that birth rates would be declining. Until someone posts a link from a credible source I remain of the view that the long run trend is for increased IF consumption.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/ea...aily-columnist
"China's negative population growth, many demographers believe, will begin around 2025, with the overall population declining from 1.39 billion last year to about 1 billion in 2067 and the ageing population continuing to rise"
I think the focus for A2 should be to grow their market share and hold or grow current margins because lets face it, this is a pretty big market. If China success can translate to rest of Asia, the population size is 4x higher and therefore plenty of growth opportunities.
That's because it's not declining. 2016 saw the highest number of births since 2000. 18.5 million babies born in Chinese hospitals in 2016, an 11.5% increase on 2015. The birth rate has actually been on the increase since about 2010 and levelled off slightly last year.
What a quote like this neglects is currently many of Chinas current population can’t afford or justify a relatively expensive branded product like A2 even with a population declining the average incomes are rising significantly over time meaning a much higher proportion can afford or justify A2’s product and therefore their available market within China should actually be growing over time even with a smaller population.
edit; thats assuming the population actually declines which I’m not sure it will
nah its declining and even this chinese paper is forecasting decline in future.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/ea...aily-columnist
As i stated it declined slightly from 2016 to 2017, but 2017 was still the 2nd highest number of births since 2000, remembering that in 2016 there was a massive increase.
Ssh - come closer and I'l tell you a wee secret.
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Dairy Dale and Anchor is exactly the same milk. The only difference is the packaging. (but some milks have different protein sugars etc - but its the same milk from the same cows)
If you want to get technical just look to see how Fonterra (for example) adds permeate to water down its brands like Calci-Tim and Mega Milk
Were those distardly Citi guys buying today?
My health is a lot better since I cut down my intake of dairy produce.A little trim milk in my tea and coffee,and very little cheese in my sandwichs at lunch time.I avoid ice cream,yohurt,custard,fancy cheeses,etc.
I think dairy products are okay, as long as you stick with something that is processed at its minimum. You dairy products you mentioned in the last sentence contains a lot of fat and sugar, sure of course they are bad for your health. Homemade icecream, greek yoghurt and standard cheese shouldn't be too bad.
..A2 is a great product.
Just to keep on topic.
Great forum. :)
$Kiwi falling out of bed is really going to help exporters like ATM. Could we see the Kiwi test 60 cents U.S. over the next year ?
Is this relevant in anyway?
Fonterra - today
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=4797696Quote:
Our forecast performance is not where we expected it would be. While the numbers are not finalised, our margins were
less than we forecasted right across our global Ingredients and Consumer and Foodservice businesses."
I totally agree. I was looking at the long term chart this morning for NZD/USD and you could easily see it reaching 62c. I think it might go lower than 60c. We forget in October 2000, it was 39c.
For what its worth, on the monthly chart, the 50 month MA is about to cross the 200 month MA. I have no idea what you call that but it looks bearish haha.
A positive finish to the week after all the downward pressure.
Besides a boost for A2 really not sure why you’re celebrating a low NZ $ so much. Surely you also have interests in companies that are hurt by a low kiwi $ e.g Retailers and surely you buy many many products from abroad. Will likely increase fuel costs which will also affect many more companies.
Certainly a thorn in my side. Will make travelling much more expensive.
I don’t want to burst your bubble. Everywhere I have travelled to seems relative or cheaper than New Zealand. We are one of the most expensive countries in the world. It will only get more expensive when we have $20 per hour minimum wage in 2021. Our New Zealand dollar won’t be what we will be thanking for being overly expensive.
Ok, took few years but we finally got there....
Referencing to closing prices of A2M and BAL on ASX. And A2 has overtaken Bellamy’s in price, 9.78 vs 9.70. Go you beaut, may the gap keep widening!!!
According to Google was $8.67 11th August last year (and sub 4 earlier in 2017) so it wasn't a linear decrease.
Could easy say A2 from $14+ to $10.77 is a whole lot of wealth destruction also. But was sub 5 a year ago.
If you bought at the peaks, then yes, but most gave been riding the roller coaster....
Question. Is it an bullish sign that A2 bought a chunk of SML before the FY announcement? I am just wondering...
That would be nice, but no, words already out about a2. My promote days are over. Just sitting back now buying and selling. Did you notice a2m in aussi went up 13c after NZX closed yesterday. ATM NZX seems to follow A2m ASX. Be interesting to see which way it goes on Monday. Annual report due out in couple weeks.
Still it is trading above $10. It is a very crucial price for the ATM. Trading below that level could lead to trading below $9.
......or maybe both up and down.
My get what I get after eating cauliflower;;;; fluctuations.