brave .... us markets longest winning streak for years although bit overbrought short term but the melt- up underway into xmas/new year my pick
Printable View
I regularly take these positions when daily and weekly RSI are at historical pullback levels and there is FOMO in the market. Watch how quickly that FOMO turns to FEAR when the tree gets shaken (resulting in a huge VIX spike). I am only looking for daily consolidation before continuation of the rally, so the hedge is just protecting gains. I agree that your medium term thesis has a high likelihood and believe it'll likely result in a long term top.
You'll also notice that the VIX has been going up whilst the market has been going up - indicating others have the same thinking. Just got to hope that's smart money and not the herd money or I'll get smoked.
Likewise, just starting to scale in on a position with VIXM. Generally speaking, when ones starts playing the VIX when its at the bottom end of the range, it's quite hard to lose money over the med term; regardless of market direction.
Conversely & just a "feeling", but to me the US market has the signs of being about to enter into another melt-up phase. Possibly short & sharp & without a lot of supporting rationality. If so, perhaps it would take out my 4750 target and go as far as giving the big 5 a crack?
In fact when I reflect further, I think it could be argued that we are ALREADY in another melt-up stage. The move up from the early Oct low has displayed plenty of irrational attributes.
The problem with believe systems is that whatever your bubble chooses to believe, everybody outside this bubble thinks it is nuts. Actually - this is the very definition of a religion. You must believe something which makes you distinct from any other bubble.
Well I can’t exactly state that as fact, it’s ‘belief’ based off firm fundamental metrics including massive efficiencies & institutional acceptance along with retail adoption. John Key, chairman of ANZ is now onboard, pretty much anyone paying attention can see the huge amounts of efficiencies gained through decentralised finance and capital follows efficiencies like gravity regardless of what one believes.
https://www.interest.co.nz/currencie...nks-should-use
Different pair of shoes.
Sir John indicated that banks might want to look into using crypto, perhaps create their own. Fine - as they say, the bank (or the house) always wins.
Does not mean that it might be a good idea to invest into cryptos ... I guess at the end they are endlessly multipliable. Limited demand, unlimited supply. What does market theory tell us about this situation? Every country, every bank, every organisation, every hacker can (and probably will) produce its own crypto currency ... and some of them probably will be used for some purposes. Does not mean it is a great idea to invest into the existing cryptos unless you know which one will win the race and which will fail ...
Anyway - this is for a different thread, though the association with Black Monday might be highly appropriate.
Yes agree completely, ultimately every central bank will have their own token that can be exchanged 1:1 to fiat, a token that can be used across 100s of layer 1s and is nonfungible no matter where it resides. The war occurring right now in crypto is which base layer (layer 1) will win, I suspect ultimately there will only be one.
Regardless it’s clear this is the fastest growing asset class and that is unlikely to slow down anytime soon. Investors who diversify across the blue chips will do well just like they do in traditional markets.
Feel free to join us in the CC corner, it’s nice to be able to discuss crypto with people who are agnostic and or non-believers.